Nuclear detente: Russia is ready for dialogue with the Americans on a new START treaty
Moscow is open to resuming negotiations on arms control, despite Washington's refusal to extend the main parameters of the START Treaty for a year, Russian Permanent Representative to the UN office in Geneva Gennady Gatilov told Izvestia. But, according to him, there are no military-political and strategic conditions for launching contacts on this topic yet. Russia insists on the mandatory participation of Britain and France, as NATO countries are stepping up preparations for the scenario of a coordinated nuclear strike on Russia, Gatilov stressed. The United States is demanding China's involvement, but Beijing has no plans to participate in the negotiations yet, Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui told Izvestia. Experts believe that a bilateral format of dialogue between the Russian Federation and the United States is most likely, taking into account the nuclear capabilities of other states.
Negotiations between the Russian Federation and the United States on the extension of the START Treaty
It has been a month and a half since the end of the Strategic Offensive Arms Treaty (START Treaty). However, an official dialogue on the preparation of a new agreement has not been launched. According to Reuters, U.S. representatives met with Russian and Chinese officials in Geneva in February. The Russian Foreign Ministry then called such reports disinformation. The Swiss Foreign Ministry told Izvestia that there was no information about any official discussions on this issue.
Russia is open to resuming dialogue on strategic stability and arms control, Gennady Gatilov, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the UN Office and other international organizations in Geneva, told Izvestia. This is possible if bilateral relations with the United States are normalized and numerous "irritants" are eliminated, as well as if Washington is ready to respect Moscow's legitimate security interests.
— We consider the expiration of the START Treaty as an objective reality. As well as the refusal of the American side from Moscow's constructive proposal for the parties to voluntarily comply with the quantitative restrictions stipulated in the agreement for a period of one year. We do not share the arguments of the United States about some kind of "harmfulness" of the START Treaty for their national security, but we leave it on the conscience of our American colleagues," the diplomat said.
Gennady Gatilov stressed that in the case of negotiations in a multilateral format, Russia's prerequisite would be the involvement of Great Britain and France as US allies with significant nuclear potential.
— We are strengthened in the correctness of our approach by the plans of these countries to increase the number of national nuclear arsenals, as well as the intentions of Paris to expand the European geography of the practice of "joint nuclear missions" and "expanded nuclear deterrence." Proper military, political and strategic conditions are required to launch a dialogue in a bilateral or multilateral format. There are none yet," Gatilov told Izvestia.
Last fall, Vladimir Putin proposed to the American side that they mutually adhere to the main provisions of the START Treaty for a year. According to Axios, representatives of Moscow and Washington discussed this issue at talks in Abu Dhabi in January. The Kremlin said at the time that they were ready for a full-fledged dialogue in case of constructive signals. However, then the Trump administration launched a military operation against Iran, so many other global issues were actually put on pause, including the Ukrainian settlement.
The risks of building up the nuclear arsenal of France and Britain
Russia's demand for the participation of Britain and France is related to the modernization of their nuclear arsenals. It is important to note that the authorities of these countries declare that they do not intend to join negotiations on limiting nuclear weapons, citing the disparity of their forces with Russian and American ones. For example, last year, French Ambassador to Moscow Nicolas de Riviere told Izvestia about this.
Last year, London announced its intention to spend $20 billion on the production of nuclear weapons and submarines. The United Kingdom also plans to purchase F-35A Lightning fighters from the United States and revive the air component of the nuclear triad. Britain currently has about 225 warheads and four nuclear submarines.
In early March, French President Emmanuel Macron also announced plans to increase the nuclear arsenal, which currently has about 300 charges. At the same time, Paris will no longer disclose information about the composition of its forces. The French leader went even further: He suggested that European countries consider deploying nuclear weapons carriers on their territory.
Belgium, Great Britain, Germany, Greece, Denmark, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden have already officially joined the negotiations on joint nuclear deterrence. In addition to allowing French nuclear forces on their territory, these countries can participate in the Paris initiative by providing radars, developing new missiles and space exploration, a European diplomatic source told Izvestia.
France is expanding the geography of the application of the concept of "joint nuclear missions" — in addition to the existing practice within NATO of such activities based on US nuclear weapons. If these plans are implemented, the geography of countries from which significant risks will arise for Russia will expand, Gennady Gatilov said. Recall that the United States has concluded agreements with a number of countries of the North Atlantic Alliance on the transfer of nuclear bombs from US storage bases in these states to their air Forces in case of military necessity. At the moment, American nuclear weapons are stored in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey.
— All these actions are in line with a systematic build-up of capabilities to implement the strategy of "joint nuclear planning" in order to provide for a coordinated nuclear strike against a common enemy. The "collective West" openly considers the Russian Federation to be such. Moreover, it is completely hypocritical to use the alleged Russian threat as a justification for its hostile policy," the Russian Permanent Representative to the UN Office in Geneva stressed.
There is no doubt that Russia has the capabilities to mitigate these risks, Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security, told Izvestia. At the same time, the growing cooperation between these countries in the field of nuclear deterrence forces us to consider them as a kind of two-pronged problem and respond accordingly in both the nuclear and non-nuclear spheres.
Prospects for a multilateral treaty
While Moscow insists on Britain and France joining a new nuclear arms control agreement, Washington is demanding the same from Beijing. At the end of February, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio returned to this topic. According to the politician, despite the PRC's statements that the Chinese are far behind the United States and Russia in the production of nuclear weapons, they have "the potential to catch up, and they are already on their way to this." Russian officials have previously stressed that they are not against China's involvement in the negotiations, but the decision remains with them.
China has no plans yet to join negotiations on this topic between Russia and the United States, Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui told Izvestia.
— Such negotiations (on strategic stability. — Ed.) have always been carried out between the Soviet Union and the United States, and now between Russia and the United States. We welcome the continuation of this format. China has nothing to do with it yet. It's not that China won't take part, but we have a very limited number of nuclear weapons, just for self—defense," the diplomat said.
According to Dmitry Stefanovich, today the probability of a multilateral agreement involving all the countries of the "nuclear five" is extremely low due to the general political situation, as well as due to the technical complexity of covering such different strategic arsenals, and differing both qualitatively and quantitatively.
"Moreover, coordination between the United States, Great Britain, France and their other NATO allies is clearly increasing in terms of deterring Russia, both nuclear and non—nuclear," the expert also draws attention.
Vasily Klimov, a researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security, believes that with the proper political will, a bilateral Russian-American dialogue on the control of their nuclear capabilities should be continued. Then, based on this, it is possible to take into account the forces of the other states of the "nuclear five", but in what format is still unclear.
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