Hello, weapons: Europe wanted its own nuclear umbrella
France wanted to provide Europe with a nuclear umbrella. President Emmanuel Macron has proposed the concept of "advanced nuclear deterrence," which has already been joined by eight countries on the continent. The day before, the ban on the movement of nuclear weapons by air, sea and land was lifted in Finland. The Kremlin warned that this would only lead to an escalation of tension. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Transit allowed
Finnish Defense Minister Antti Hyakkanen announced on March 5 that Helsinki lifted the ban on the movement of nuclear weapons by air, sea and land. According to him, the transit of such weapons will be allowed only in situations related to the defense of the country.
Until now, local legislation has prohibited the import, manufacture, storage and detonation of nuclear explosives in Finland. The fact that these norms need to be changed was first discussed in 2022 after the country applied for membership in NATO.
Supporters of lifting the ban said at the time that it would facilitate interaction with partners in the North Atlantic Alliance. At the same time, some politicians in Finland fear that transit alone will not be enough and subsequently nuclear weapons will be permanently deployed in the country.
The Kremlin has already reacted to Helsinki's actions, stressing that such statements only lead to an escalation of tension on the European continent and add to Finland's vulnerability.
"By deploying nuclear weapons on its territory, Finland is beginning to threaten us. If Finland threatens us, we take appropriate measures," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov commented on the situation.
It is worth noting that Finland's attitude towards the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (NWFZ), which entered into force in early 2021, has recently changed. It aims to destroy existing nuclear arsenals and ban such weapons as a class.
The agreement is opposed by official and unofficial members of the Club of Nuclear Powers. In 2022, Helsinki, which had previously demonstrated its neutrality, voted for the first time against a resolution submitted annually to the UN General Assembly, advocating the development of a NWFZ and calling on all countries to sign the document as soon as possible.
The first one went
At the same time, French President Emmanuel Macron was the first to announce a radical change in the national nuclear doctrine. In particular, the head of state wanted Paris to provide Europe with a nuclear umbrella.
"We must strengthen nuclear deterrence in the face of various threats and think through our deterrence strategy deep into the European continent with full respect for our sovereignty and with the gradual establishment of what I call 'advanced deterrence,'" he stressed.
According to the French leader, the country needs to strengthen its nuclear arsenal. Therefore, Macron ordered to increase the number of nuclear warheads and no longer publish information about how many of them are at the disposal of Paris.
In 2025, according to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, France possessed 290 nuclear warheads. Of the three components of the nuclear triad, the State has two — sea and air. The country has four strategic submarines loaded with nuclear ballistic missiles and fighter-bombers delivering nuclear cruise missiles.
The French leader first spoke about the nuclear deterrence initiative six years ago during the first presidential term of Donald Trump. Last spring, he returned to this topic.
Currently, the United States provides the nuclear umbrella in Europe under the NATO Nuclear Sharing mechanism, which has been in operation since 1954. The North Atlantic Alliance conducts joint nuclear exercises involving non-nuclear States. France does not join the bloc's nuclear missions — in 1966, under the leadership of Charles de Gaulle, the country withdrew from the NATO military structure in protest against US hegemony, and after its return in 2009, it did not join these types of maneuvers.
According to Macron's idea, deterrence under the French nuclear umbrella involves not only joint nuclear exercises led by Paris, but also the possible deployment of French nuclear weapons in other states.
Followed the example
Other European countries have already begun to join the French president's nuclear initiative. Last summer, Paris, together with London, adopted the Northwood Declaration, strengthening the coordination of the two countries' nuclear forces. A joint nuclear cooperation group has also been established.
In early March, Paris published a joint declaration by Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The document clarifies that France and Germany have established a nuclear management group, within which they will hold consultations on conventional weapons, missile defense and France's nuclear potential. In addition, starting this year, Germany will participate in French nuclear exercises, as well as visit strategic facilities of the ally.
Macron expects other European countries — Poland, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark and Sweden - to join the Paris nuclear initiative. He promised to create the same mechanisms of interaction with them as with London in the near future. We are talking about the exchange of intelligence, joint threat assessment, the creation of special communication channels and organizational structures, etc.
Maria Zakharova, the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, previously noted that NATO is strengthening and increasing its nuclear potential, which it can use against Russia in the event of a conflict. According to her, France's statements about building up its nuclear potential are a hostile step that destabilizes the development of events.
Following in the footsteps of NATO
The Paris nuclear initiative is expected, says Alexander Ermakov, a junior researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security.
— We have been talking about this for the last year without a break, and what Macron has announced is rather a "minimum program" of what could have been. This is primarily due to the Ukrainian conflict and, to an even greater extent, to Trump's return to the White House," the expert believes.
According to the political scientist, all this has exacerbated the Europeans' concerns about the unreliability of the American ally. And Paris tried to take a new role, taking advantage of the situation.
— In the case of Finland, it's just bringing legislation to national standards, it was inevitable after Helsinki joined the bloc, they talked about it back in 2022. Sweden has taken similar actions," the specialist recalls.
At the same time, the possibility of creating a parallel NATO Nuclear Sharing mission of the EU is very unpleasant, especially in the case of the deployment of nuclear weapons in Sweden and Poland, the analyst says.
— In the context of Finland's statements, the fact of the country's accession to NATO has become a new challenge for Russia's security, and current legislative changes do not matter. They already had to be kept in mind initially, since in wartime or in the event of a military threat, the country of the bloc is a potential territory for the deployment of nuclear weapons," explains Ermakov.
The arms race in Europe
Currently, there are threats of nuclear proliferation in Europe, as a number of European countries are seriously considering strengthening national nuclear deterrence capabilities or expanding the use of individual forces as a nuclear umbrella, says Konstantin Bogdanov, head of the Strategic Analysis and Forecasting Sector at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security.
— Previously, NATO states relied for the most part on the American nuclear umbrella with an extended deterrence system. But now, due to the growing contradictions between Washington and the European members of NATO, there are growing doubts among European elites that this kind of expanded deterrence by the United States is reliable, the expert explains.
The expert recalls that the Europeans doubted the reliability of American deterrence before. For example, during the Cold War, NATO countries were not sure that the United States would be involved in a nuclear conflict if it was limited to Europe. Now, according to the analyst, a similar situation has arisen.
— In addition, there is a major crisis in transatlantic security relations, and a number of countries realize that they can ensure their security through the growth of national military power, the key component of which is nuclear weapons. This is a rather complicated, twofold and dangerous move, which is nevertheless very easy to implement," Bogdanov notes.
According to the expert, it is easy to "sell" this story to one's own society, but the big question is whether this will solve the security problem in Europe.
— In fact, this will lead to a nuclear arms race in this very Europe, making it a much less secure region. And, of course, it will provoke a reaction from Russia. In Russia, this has always been considered and will be considered as an additional threat, which will lead to certain military-technical decisions," the expert is sure.
The current escalation in the Middle East has become just another link in this chain of events, he believes. Fierce discussions about nuclear deterrence in Europe unfolded in 2022 against the background of the escalation of the Ukrainian conflict, and then because of the deepening contradictions between the United States and European NATO countries after Trump's return to the White House.
— Then the EU started talking about the fact that it was time to acquire its own nuclear weapons in order to be less dependent on the Americans, who are becoming unpredictable. So far, we have not seen a proliferation, but we see a sharp intensification of such discussions at least in Germany," Bogdanov draws attention.
The political scientist considers the chances that the Germans will acquire nuclear weapons to be quite high. But he clarifies that Germany will have to make a difficult choice later.
—Because it will either completely delegate this umbrella of nuclear security to the French and British in Europe, or it will try to become a conditional "third leg of the stool" and thereby retain the status of the leading military power of the European continent," the expert concludes.
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