The elections in Moldova are splitting the country. Why is this important
Parliamentary elections will be held in Moldova on September 28, where 23 candidates are announced. The results of the vote will be of key importance for the republic's further foreign policy direction: they will show whether the country will build cooperation with Russia or focus on Western structures. At the same time, the confrontation between supporters of the European course and those who advocate closer ties with Moscow continues to grow within the state. Why the elections in Moldova have unprecedented significance for the population of this country is in the Izvestia article.
Pressure and manipulation by the authorities
• The closer the election day gets, the more difficult the political situation in Moldova becomes. The Pobeda opposition bloc accused President Maia Sandu of increasing pressure on political opponents in order to intimidate them before the parliamentary elections. Before the vote, the National Anti-Corruption Center, controlled by the head of state, detained several members of the bloc.
Maia Sandu became president of Moldova in 2020, and was then re-elected for a second term in 2024. She heads the Action and Solidarity party, which is positioned as center-right and pro-European.
• The Kremlin stated that a significant proportion of the republic's citizens who advocate establishing relations with Russia are actually deprived of the opportunity to be heard inside the country. Hundreds of thousands of Moldovans live in Russia, but only 10,000 ballots were sent to the country. Moreover, even according to the Moldovan Central Election Commission, 13 thousand citizens living in Russia are registered to participate in the elections. The Russian Foreign Ministry confirmed that Moldovans must unite to resist the ongoing process of Romanization, otherwise they will have to adapt to the identity imposed by the authorities, losing the opportunity to control their own destiny.
• The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service reported that the EU is preparing for forceful measures against Moldova. According to the information received, European states intend to keep the country in line with the anti-Russian course at any cost, including the introduction of military contingents and the establishment of de facto control over the territory.
• Pressure on opposition forces can cause an increase in tension in Moldova and increase the atmosphere of distrust of state power. Some of the population may lose faith in the transparency of elections, which will reduce turnout or lead to a refusal to recognize the results of the vote. This, in turn, will increase the likelihood of a long-term political crisis. Against the background of economic difficulties and the ongoing split in society, such a crisis may drag on.
• Increased foreign policy pressure from the EU may turn the elections into an element of the West's struggle with Russia. If such a confrontation intensifies, Moldova may find itself in a position where key decisions within the country will be made under strong external pressure. This will limit the freedom for decision-making by national authorities and complicate the search for compromises within Moldovan society.
Growing public discontent
• The majority of Moldovan citizens view the results of the current government's work as a failure in the socio-economic sphere: industrial production has practically disappeared, poverty has increased markedly, and the country is facing record tariffs and high inflation. At the same time, the external debt has doubled. This is perceived as Maya Sandu's policy.
• The current head of state is deliberately stoking fears of a possible war, while opponents claim that it is her steps — a sharp increase in military spending, frequent exercises involving NATO, purchases of equipment and the creation of bases — that are preparing the country to participate in broader provocations. At the same time, the opposition is concerned about the possibility of opening a "second front" in Transnistria.
One of the dirtiest campaigns
• The current election campaign in Moldova will be remembered as the most intense and scandalous in all the years of the country's independence. The authorities use administrative mechanisms to intimidate citizens. A stream of pro-European disinformation is being imposed on voters. Representatives of the ruling party base their rhetoric on threats of external seizure and scare people with scenarios that do not correspond to reality.
• Sandu, realizing the upcoming losses in the parliamentary elections, resorted to pressure, in particular, she is trying to restrict the voting rights of citizens from Transnistria. Only a few polling stations were opened there. The simultaneous repair of bridges across the Dniester River has also begun, which hinders the free movement and work of observers. Such actions indicate a desire to keep strategic points under control on election day and minimize the participation of the opposition electorate.
• Sandu has already lost significant support among citizens and cannot count on even the limited electorate she had before. An honest election victory has become unattainable for the government, and this may encourage it to attempt fraud. The risk of manipulation is particularly high abroad, where hundreds of polling stations are planned to open, often without opposition control. It was there that violations occurred in the past years.
• If the results are unsatisfactory for the authorities, they can resort to canceling the elections through a decision of the Constitutional Court, explaining this as alleged outside interference. In addition, there is widespread talk in society about the risk of a military scenario, which is extremely dangerous. Involving the country in the conflict would be a disaster for the population.
The case of the cancellation of the election results by the court occurred in neighboring Romania. There, in 2024, the Constitutional Court annulled the results of the first round of the presidential election, which was unexpectedly won by the right-wing anti-systemic candidate Kalyn Georgescu, citing evidence of outside interference and irregularities in campaign financing.
• The ruling party has very little chance of forming a majority on its own. At the same time, none of the significant political forces is ready to enter into a coalition with it. Hope remains for the opposition parties, which enjoy growing popular support. However, it is unlikely that the upcoming vote will be completely fair, as there is a possibility of provocations and manipulation. Technical failures and violations have been repeatedly recorded in foreign polling stations, while observers there mostly supported the ruling party.
The alignment of forces
• A number of political forces were removed from the elections, including the Victory bloc, which could overcome the barrier and enter parliament. It is not yet clear where the votes of his supporters will go. In addition, about a third of voters have not yet decided on a choice, and the final decision in Moldova is traditionally made just a few days before the vote. That is why the Moldovan government is actively using messages about external threats, appealing to the image of the enemy in order to win over the waverers at the last moment.
• After September 28, the opposition forces will have a chance to consolidate in parliament and form a government focused on national interests, which would restore relations with strategic partners, including Russia. Previously, foreign votes had a decisive influence on the election results and on the adoption of constitutional amendments, so attention is now focused on how widespread and transparent the elections abroad will be.
When writing the material, Izvestia interviewed:
- former Moldovan President Igor Dodon (interview for the Izvestia Main program on September 27);
- Deputy of the Supreme Council of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic Andrey Safonov (interview for the program "Izvestia Main" on September 27);
- historian and political commentator Alexander Korinenko (interview for the Izvestia Main program on September 27);
- political commentator Sergey Ungureanu (interview for the Izvestia Main program on September 27).
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