Waiting mode: Sandu will lose Gagauzia's votes in the elections due to the Hutsul verdict

Maia Sandu's party will lose the support of Gagauz residents in the upcoming elections after the verdict of Eugenia Gutsul, the Moldovan parliament told Izvestia. This can undermine PAS's chances of winning: up to 4% of votes can be obtained from autonomy. It may seem that this is not much, but every percentage is important — in the presidential elections in November, Sandu lost the first round, winning the second only at the expense of the foreign diaspora. Now Chisinau will continue to put pressure on Gagauzia, even to the point of depriving it of its autonomy status, experts tell Izvestia. At the same time, protests continue in Moldova on the eve of the elections, which will start on September 28. How relations between Chisinau and Comrat will develop is in the Izvestia article.

Gagauzia will not vote for the ruling Sandu party

In the upcoming elections in Moldova, residents of Gagauzia are guaranteed not to vote for the ruling party after the verdict of its leader Evgenia Gutsul, MP from the Party of Socialists Bogdan Tsyrdea told Izvestia.

— The whole of Gagauzia will vote against the Action and Solidarity party. She will vote for the opposition. The ruling party wins the most votes in the central regions of the country and in Chisinau. All Gagauz people represent 4% of the total electorate. Yes, this affects the electoral context, where, of course, every percentage is important, but here 4% will immediately go to the opposition," he says.

"Shame of justice": the head of Gagauzia Hutsul sentenced to seven years in prison

Russia called the decision politically motivated

The Gagauz people actively oppose the pro-Western policies of the ruling Action and Solidarity (PAS) party, led by Moldovan President Maia Sandu. This is evidenced by the results of the last presidential elections: less than 3% of the autonomy's population voted for Sandu. And 95% of Gagauz residents opposed Moldova's accession to the EU. As for the entire population of the country, the chances of the ruling party are fading before our eyes. Her rating has dropped since the spring, and recent polls show that less than a quarter of the population in Moldova intend to vote for PAS — 20-21%, former President of the republic Igor Dodon said.

For which the court sentenced Hutsul to seven years in prison.

Without waiting for the elections, on August 5, the court sentenced the Bashkan of Gagauzia, Yevgenia Hutsul, to seven years in prison. She was found guilty under the article on "illegal financing of political parties and election campaigns, violation of the procedure for managing the financial resources of political parties and election funds."

Hutsul was detained on March 25 at the Chisinau airport. After that, she was repeatedly placed under house arrest. Such a harsh sentence for the mother of two children came as a surprise to Moldovan society, and even to its pro-government part, said Bogdan Tsyrdea.

After that, the Parliament of Gagauzia adopted a resolution in which it confirmed the legitimacy of the powers of the head of the autonomy and did not recognize the court sentence imposed on her. "The term of office of the head of Gagauzia <...> can be terminated prematurely only in strict accordance with the Code of Gagauzia and the Law of the Republic of Moldova on the special legal status of Gagauzia. Any attempts to remove the head of Gagauzia from office outside the law, including trumped—up court decisions, are a gross violation of the will of the Gagauz people and usurpation of their right to independently form government bodies," the document says.

The acting head of the autonomy, Ilya Uzun, said that the ruling PAS party "purposefully decapitated the autonomy" in order to provoke early elections of the Bashkan. Moldovan citizens are well aware of this: the whole process of the Hutsul case was accompanied by numerous protests. Large-scale anti-government actions also took place during the May holidays and in the summer. Against this background, on the day of the hearing, the courthouse was, as expected, cordoned off by the police. After the verdict was announced, the rallies resumed with renewed vigor. On August 11, a rally in her support gathered again near SIZO No. 13 in Chisinau, where Evgenia Gutsul is being held. Now, before the parliamentary elections, the protests will only become more frequent, the MP is sure.

Relations between Gagauzia and Chisinau

Relations between Gagauzia and Chisinau worsened in 2023, when Evgenia Gutsul won the elections in the autonomy. Since she advocates strengthening ties with Russia, and the authorities in Chisinau, on the contrary, with the West, it was obvious that tensions would grow. The Moldovan authorities even tried to declare the vote illegal at that time. Maia Sandu refused to sign the decree approving Hutsul as a member of the government, which contradicts national legislation. Currently, there are no representatives of Gagauzia in the Moldovan parliament.

Interestingly, after Bashkan's victory, Maya Sandu visited the autonomy a number of times. One was when Hutsul was away, the other was when Bashkan was already detained. Moreover, information about the visit was kept secret until recently in order to avoid protests from local residents dissatisfied with the Moldovan authorities.

Since the election of the Hutsul, Chisinau has begun to limit the rights of autonomy as much as possible. In 2024, the Moldovan parliament adopted a bill according to which a number of courts, including those in Gagauzia, will come under the jurisdiction of nearby areas. In Chisinau, they also intended to liquidate the Comrat Appeals Chamber. And the Constitutional Court of Moldova deprived Gagauzia of the right to appoint an autonomous prosecutor.

Chisinau also began to put pressure on the autonomy economically: it was reported that it was planning to reduce the grant part of the financing of some regions of Gagauzia — now the budget comes to the autonomy in the form of two parts: mandatory and grant.

Violent action: Hutsul verdict will trigger new protests in Moldova

Will the elimination of the opposition to Sandu's party help in the upcoming parliamentary elections

Now Chisinau, as expected, will be able to put its own person in power in the autonomy, public and political figure Ivan Konstantinov tells Izvestia.

— Bashkan is chosen within the autonomy. After that, his candidacy is coordinated with Chisinau. But Chisinau can put its own person as a candidate and falsify the election results," he says.

In the light of current events, it is also likely that if the PAS wins the parliamentary elections, Chisinau will deprive Gagauzia of autonomy. That's what it's all about now.

Formally, Gagauzia has the right to secede from Moldova, but this scenario may end in a civil war, the expert warns. Despite pressure from the central government, the population of Gagauzia continues to advocate strengthening ties with Moscow. The Russian Federation is helping the autonomy economically: in 2024, Gagauzia's agricultural products gained access to the Russian market. Promsvyazbank also signed an agreement with the autonomy on the possibility of conducting cross-border payments. In addition, many residents of the region have already received Russian Mir cards. It was reported that the parties are working on issues of a discount on gas for the autonomy, as well as benefits for exporters of goods to the Russian Federation.