Tearing up and dreaming: Sandu's party loses support a week before Moldovan elections
Parliamentary elections will start in Moldova in a week. According to recent polls, the Patriotic Bloc and the ruling Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) are leading the country. Official Chisinau is actively launching legal proceedings against opposition forces, passing laws restricting their work, and closing down the media, while the standard of living in the country is plummeting. Dissatisfaction with the actions of the authorities in Moldova is growing: protests are increasingly breaking out in different regions of the republic. As Ilan Shor, the leader of the Victory bloc, told Izvestia, if the PAS wins, even more large-scale rallies await the country.
The situation in Moldova before the elections
A parliamentary vote will be held in Moldova on September 28. It will be attended by 23 registered entities, including 15 parties. One of the main competitors of President Maia Sandu's Action and Solidarity (PAS) party is the Patriotic Bloc, which includes four political forces: the Future of Moldova by former Prime Minister Vasily Tarlev, Igor Dodon's Socialists, the Heart of Moldova by former head of Gagauzia Irina Vlah and the Communists of Moldova by former President Vladimir Voronin.
Among the independent candidates is Andrei Nastase, a well—known politician who previously participated in pro-European initiatives. Olesya Stamate is known as a public figure. Victoria Sandutsa is an activist, and Tatiana Kretsu is from the legal field.
The ruling party of Moldova, Maia Sandu, came to power in 2021. And from about the same moment, the republic abruptly turned to the west, embarking on the path of accelerated European integration and severing ties with Russia. Over the same four years, inflation has reached 66%, the cost of energy resources has increased sixfold, and the national debt has grown to $7.8 billion.
Against this background, the PAS party is steadily losing the support of voters. According to the latest Insider Moldova poll, if all parties are allowed to participate in the elections, they will receive only 18%, while the Patriotic Bloc may win with a result of 34%.
Other studies provide similar figures: according to iData, 36% are ready to vote for the Patriotic Bloc, while 34.7% are ready to vote for the PAS. According to a Morari News poll, 34.3% of voters are also ready to support the Patriotic Bloc.
From the point of view of local legislation, parliamentary elections are the most important in the country. The candidate for prime minister is nominated by the president, but it is the parliament that approves him. Accordingly, if PAS does not win the election, it will be very difficult for Sand to promote a candidate who is convenient for himself. Moreover, Sandu will be able to present his candidacy for this position only after consultations with the parliamentary factions. And if the opposition takes over the legislature, the president will have to take into account the position of the majority coalition.
Judging by the situation, it is possible that a parliament with the same representation of both the ruling party and the opposition will be formed as a result of the elections. In this case, Sandu's presidential mandate will no longer be as "trouble-free" as it could have been with the full support of Parliament.
Action and Solidarity is now trying in every way to create conditions that are loyal to itself, for example, by making changes to the work of polling stations abroad. This year, their number will increase to 301 from 234 in 2024. It should be recalled that it was the votes of the foreign diaspora that ensured Maya Sandu's victory in last year's presidential election.
In Russia, as last year, only two sites will be opened at the republic's embassy in Moscow. Earlier, the chairman of the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation, Ella Pamfilova, addressed the head of the Moldovan Central Election Commission, Angelica Karaman, and the director of the Bureau for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) OSCE asked Maria Telalian to consider the possibility of opening additional polling stations on the territory of the Russian Federation. She noted that there are 25,000 voters in our country, which is 20% of their total number. At the same time, significantly more land plots are planned to be opened in European countries with fewer Moldovan citizens. For example, in Italy — 40 (per 23 thousand voters), in France — 26, in the USA — 22.
The authorities decided to open only 12 polling stations for residents of Transnistria, which is almost three times less than in last year's presidential elections. Interestingly, right before the elections, the Moldovan authorities organized repairs on seven bridges connecting the left and right banks of the Dniester River.
What to expect after the voting is over
The election campaign, as well as preparations for it, are taking place in Moldova under unprecedented pressure on the opposition. For example, the Pobeda opposition bloc was not allowed to participate in the elections at all.
One of the most high-profile cases was the verdict of the Bashkan of Gagauzia Evgenia Hutsul. She was arrested on March 25, and on August 5, a court in Chisinau sentenced her to seven years in prison in a case related to the liquidated Shor party.
Supporters of the head of the Gagauz autonomy within Moldova, Evgenia Gutsul, during a rally at SIZO No. 13 in Chisinau
Pressure on the Moldovan opposition is expected to be supported in the West. For example, Canada has imposed sanctions against Evgenia Hutsul and 17 other individuals and legal entities from the republic. In July, the European Union also introduced restrictions. The list includes supporters of Ilan Shor. "Taking into account today's lists, the restrictive measures of the EU in connection with actions destabilizing Moldova are now applied to a total of 23 individuals and five legal entities," the association said in a statement. The European Commission also previously announced its intention to strengthen the fight against "Russian disinformation" in Moldova.
Bogdan Tsyrdea, a deputy from the parliamentary Bloc of Communists and Socialists, emphasized in an interview with Izvestia that this is the first time that such a number of sanctions from the West have been applied against the Moldovan opposition.
- There has never been such a thing in the history of the country. This is the first time I've ever heard of outside sanctions being imposed against you without explanation. Usually the explanations are as follows: "for destabilizing the situation in Moldova", "destabilizing the political system". These are the formulations through which the countries of the collective West make it clear that any rallies, any criticism of their puppet regime is prohibited," says the deputy.
The situation is also difficult with regard to the media: since the autumn of 2023, the republic's authorities have been conducting a large-scale campaign to tighten control over media resources. By this September, more than 20 TV channels, radio stations, and online resources had been closed or stripped of their licenses in the country.
In September, Sandu signed a decree establishing the structure of the Center for Strategic Communication and Countering Disinformation (STRATCOM). Also among the numerous innovations adopted by its parliament is the law on electoral corruption. It is a question of how honestly it is used, but already in September, the head of the General Inspectorate of Police of the Republic, Viorel Cerneuceanu, reported that more than 30 thousand people were fined under the new document "for participating in the sale of votes."
— The authorities need a tool to make propaganda work, and neither citizens nor the opposition had an alternative opinion. This is creating fear so that others won't tell the truth," Ilan Shor, the leader of the Victory bloc, told Izvestia.
The pressure on the opposition and the general deterioration of living standards have created an increase in tension in Moldovan society: residents have begun to protest more and more often. Unrest in the republic is now taking place every week. Tens of thousands of people came out against Sandu's policy in the summer. The demonstration was organized by a coalition of opposition parties, including the Party of Socialists, the Party of Communists, the Future of Moldova and the Heart of Moldova.
Protest in Chisinau
After the elections, if the ruling party wins, we should expect a new surge of mass unrest: the situation is very tense, says Ilan Shor.
— Literally everyone in the country is ready for protests: pensioners, students, farmers, railway workers. No one except PAS lives happily. And this applies not only to Moldova. Their whole "paradise" Europe is literally boiling. Look at what is happening in neighboring Romania — teachers and civil servants are taking to the streets. Mass protests in France, Great Britain. People are dissatisfied with the anti—people policy of the West, dissatisfied with the hypocrisy of these pseudo-democracies," he believes.
At the same time, the situation in the republic will remain calm in the period before the elections, HSE analyst Nicole Bodisteanu believes in a conversation with Izvestia. However, after September 28, if the ruling party wins, it is really worth waiting for a surge in mass protests. On the day of voting itself, the expert concluded, provocations in the form of artificial restrictions on the ability to cast one's vote are possible.
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