The last PAS: EU strengthens support for Sandu ahead of Moldovan elections

The European Union is strengthening its support for Maia Sandu ahead of the most important parliamentary elections in Moldova. Merz, Macron and Tusk came to the republic to raise the falling ratings of the ruling party, promising early European integration. At the same time, Moldova's chances of joining the EU before 2030 are minimal, so the visit of European heavyweights will not change the mood in society, the Moldovan parliament told Izvestia. Dissatisfaction with the standard of living and pressure on the opposition is growing in the country — protests have not subsided since the beginning of the year. About why Chisinau is important to EU leaders and how the PAS party approaches the elections — in the Izvestia article.

Visit of Merz, Macron and Tusk to Chisinau

EU leaders have decided to support Moldova's pro-European leadership, led by President Maia Sandu. On August 27, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk arrived in Chisinau for the country's Independence Day.

In a joint statement to the press, Sandu said that for Moldova "there is no alternative to Europe." The EU leaders responded with words of support, saying that the EU's doors were open to Chisinau and that Europe would become stronger with Moldova.

The visit of the EU leaders takes place against the backdrop of a difficult pre-election situation: Sandu's Action and Solidarity party (PAS) risks not getting the necessary majority in the parliamentary elections on September 28. It is obvious that Macron, Merz and Tusk came to Chisinau to support Sandu's pro-European course and save her from failure, Moldovan MP, representative of the Party of Socialists Bogdan Cirdea told Izvestia.

— If everything were in order, there would be no need to invite such a European landing force — the top leaders of the European Union. Romanian President Nicusor Dan will also be here on August 31, and then, I am convinced, some prime ministers and presidents from the Baltic states, Greece or Liechtenstein will arrive every day," he said.

The purpose of the visit of high—ranking European guests is to make it clear to all voters that if Moldovan citizens want relations with the European Union even without joining it, they should vote for the current government, Vladimir Bruter, an expert at the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Studies, told Izvestia. Nicole Bodisteanu, an analyst at the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, agrees with this point of view.

— The EU leaders' visit to Moldova is a gesture of support for the ruling party and its leader Sandu. This is happening against the background of the declining popularity of the PAS, the division in its membership, the loss of open and explicit support from the leader of the diaspora in the United States Veronika Dragalin, as well as the growing campaign on social media against the PAS," she told Izvestia.

The fact that the leaders of France, Germany and Poland came to Moldova to support Sandu shows how important Kishenev's pro-European course is for Brussels. In this regard, Moldova has a special geopolitical and strategic importance for the EU. According to former Foreign Minister Nicolae Popescu, Europe fears that if Russia "succeeds" in Ukraine and Moldova, it will create a direct military threat to countries such as Romania and Poland. "That's why we're getting signals that Moldova is important," Politico quoted him as saying.

At the same time, it is obvious that Moldova will not soon have the opportunity to become a full member of the European Union. For example, the head of the EU delegation to Chisinau, Janis Mažeix, called the goal of the Moldovan authorities to join the EU by 2030 difficult to achieve. According to him, the path of European integration is very difficult to follow at a rapid pace, as it is directly related to reforms. Thus, the visit of EU leaders to Chisinau is unlikely to change the situation, Bogdan Tsyrdea believes.

— What can they promise? Joining the EU, but only in a package version with Ukraine, which means that we will not join at all. And some citizens are beginning to understand this. Putting out a burning campfire with gasoline is not such an initiative. There will be little effect," the politician noted.

In June 2022, the EU granted Ukraine and Moldova the status of candidate countries. It is also worth noting that the attitude of Moldovans towards European integration is extremely ambiguous. Last year's referendum showed that 50.46% of citizens voted for and 49.54% voted against. The official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, noted at the time that the results demonstrated a deep split in Moldovan society.

The other day, the Russian Embassy in Belgium, commenting on the visit of the foreign ministers of the Benelux countries (Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg) to Chisinau, said that Moldova was rapidly being "Ukrainized", depriving it of its sovereignty and imposing a direct protectorate of the European Union, in which all major decisions are made in Brussels, not in Chisinau.

How will the arrival of EU leaders affect the Moldovan parliamentary elections

The parliamentary elections in Moldova, scheduled for September 28, will become the main political frontier that will chart the country's course for the years ahead. In the republic, it is the parliament that forms the government, which in the country has more powers than the president. Therefore, the failure of Maia Sandu's Action and Solidarity party may affect Chisinau's pro-Western course.

The promises of European officials about future EU membership will add another 2-3% to the Sandu party's rating, Bogdan Tsyrdea believes. According to the latest data from the iData polling company, 25.8% of voters are ready to vote for PAS. At the same time, the newly created "Patriotic Electoral Bloc", which is supported by almost 20%, is following the ruling party with a small gap. It includes the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova, led by former President Igor Dodon, as well as the parties "The Heart of Moldova" and "The Future of Moldova". Interestingly, back in December 2024, the PAS rating was 44%.

The visit of European politicians shows that the current authorities are experiencing serious problems inside the country.

— The arrival of opinion leaders during the elections is even humiliating for Maia Sandu, PAS, and Moldovan citizens. This can be called anything but fair elections, it is open and cynical interference in elections, just what Maya Sandu is allegedly fighting against. That is, she uses administrative external resources to influence the opinion of voters," Tsyrdea stressed.

On August 19, a court in Chisinau restricted the activities of parties belonging to the Moldovan opposition bloc Pobeda. The leader of the Chance party (part of the Victory bloc), Alexei Lungu, accused the authorities of undermining the independence of government agencies. For example, last year the Parliament passed a bill according to which a number of courts, including those in Gagauzia, came under the jurisdiction of nearby districts.

The current authorities understand that they will not get a parliamentary majority in the upcoming elections in September, so they are "trying to hedge themselves with various methods that can be considered a usurpation of power." Finally, the trial of Gagauzian Bashkan Evgenia Hutsul, who was sentenced to seven years in prison, has spurred a new wave of protest in the country. In August, new anti-government rallies broke out in Moldova.

— Sand has failed to achieve critical successes in the economy, energy security, price control, and investment attraction. After the last presidential election in 2024, gas prices soared by 27% and electricity prices by 70%.

The Moldovan authorities also continue to reduce the number of polling stations in regions with protest sentiments. In particular, only 12 polling stations will be open in Pridnestrovie in the upcoming elections, which will seriously limit citizens' voting opportunities. This is almost three times less than in the last presidential election.

At the same time, Pridnestrovian diplomats noted the lack of logic in the decision taken by the Central Election Commission of Moldova, pointing out that 36 polling stations are opening in Germany, where only 25,000 Moldovans live, and 73 polling stations are opening in Italy, where there are two and a half times fewer than in Pridnestrovie.

In Russia, Kishenev opened only two polling stations, both in Moscow. This, among other things, was the reason for the rally of the diaspora in the Russian capital at the Moldovan embassy. "We demand to open more polling stations on the territory of the Russian Federation," said one of the protesters.

Maya Sandu successfully used similar tricks using the voices of the diaspora during the last presidential election. In 2024, the majority of voters in Moldova voted for Alexander Stoyanoglo, the opponent of the current president, but Sandu managed to seize victory in the second round with the help of polling stations outside the country where the diaspora votes. At the same time, many more polling stations were opened in Western countries than in the Russian Federation and Transnistria, where many Moldovans also live.