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- Son-in-law and divide: how Kushner's participation affects the chances of a U.S. peace plan for Ukraine
Son-in-law and divide: how Kushner's participation affects the chances of a U.S. peace plan for Ukraine
The key figure in the issue of the Ukrainian settlement is Donald Trump's son-in-law, businessman Jared Kushner. His appearance signals Washington's increased interest in finding a compromise on Ukraine, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. The representative of the American leader actively participated in meetings with the Kiev delegation in Miami on December 4-5, and before that, in negotiations with Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin. Shortly after that, the United States unveiled a new national security strategy, which states the need to restore strategic stability in relations with the Russian Federation, and among the vital interests of the United States is the negotiation of an early cessation of hostilities in Ukraine. In Moscow, Washington's change of approach was welcomed. At the same time, the Russian Foreign Ministry noted the importance of the problem of the legitimacy of the Kiev authorities, with whom sooner or later it will be necessary to sign a peace agreement.
How are the negotiations on Ukraine progressing
After meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on December 2, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and the son-in-law of the head of the White House, businessman Jared Kushner, returned to the United States and almost immediately began new negotiations. The State Department reported that from December 4 to December 5, they communicated with the Ukrainian delegation in Miami. Kiev was represented by Rustem Umerov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine (NSDC), and Andrei Gnatov, Chief of the General Staff.
Russian President Vladimir Putin during a meeting with Special Envoy of the President of the United States Stephen Witkoff
Some media outlets report that discussions on the peace plan continued on December 6. On that day, Zelensky allegedly had a "long and meaningful" phone conversation with Witkoff. Umerov also stressed that the agreement was a priority for Kiev, which "guarantees the protection of Ukraine's independence and state sovereignty, the security of Ukrainians and creates a stable foundation for a successful democratic future." In other words, the key issue for Ukraine remains the issue of security guarantees, which it very much wants to receive from the United States and its allies.
It's no secret that Moscow and Kiev have a significantly different vision of these guarantees. This issue was probably raised at a meeting in the Kremlin, which was also attended by Kirill Dmitriev, the special representative of the President of the Russian Federation, and Yuri Ushakov, the assistant to the Russian leader.
Ushakov said after the talks that some of the US proposals were acceptable to Moscow, but some were not. At the same time, details of the negotiations were not reported.: The parties agreed not to make their contents public.
Apparently, Moscow and Washington have moved on to substantive discussions on the points of the peace treaty, Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies, suggested in a conversation with Izvestia. Everything is starting to look like a normal negotiation process should look like — in the quietest possible mode, without publicizing intermediate results.
The appearance of Jared Kushner in the negotiations is particularly noteworthy. Expanding Witkoff's solo mission to a tandem with Trump's son-in-law is beneficial for both Washington and Moscow, according to HSE analyst Egor Toropov. The United States receives an additional mediator, insuring Trump from accusations of bias and even incorrectness of Witkoff as an intermediary.
At the same time, Kushner proved himself to be an effective negotiator during Trump's first term, according to Oleg Karpovich, vice-rector of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry.
"At that time, Kushner was one of the architects of the so—called "Abraham Agreements" in the Middle East," he recalled. — Despite his lack of extensive diplomatic experience, he is known for his attention to detail and commitment to working for results. In addition, he is extremely close to Trump personally.
US President Donald Trump
A package of agreements on the normalization of Israel's relations with a number of Arab countries was signed through the mediation of the Trump administration in 2020. They paved the way for the establishment of diplomatic relations, the development of trade, investment and cooperation in the field of security. In this case, the Kushner and Witkoff duo really managed to put an end to the bloodshed and push the parties to an agreement, Karpovich stressed.
"Of course, the crisis in Ukraine is much more complicated and deeper, but Kushner's calm and systematic approach to the case, which Yuri Ushakov spoke about, will clearly be useful on this track," the expert concluded.
Why is Washington changing its strategy towards Russia
All this fits into the general logic of changing the US strategy towards the conflict in Ukraine and Russia as a whole. At the first stage of the negotiation process, it was noticeable that for Americans, a deep dive into the settlement issue was not always obvious, said political analyst Denis Denisov.
— A year later, we are seeing certain changes in approaches. Apparently, Ushakov embodies these changes with people like Kushner, who can delve deeper into the problem, listen to both the Russian and Ukrainian points of view, but at the same time report truthful information to President Trump with all the details, the expert believes.
It is worth recalling the information about the resignation of one of the main pro—Ukrainian members of the US administration, Special Envoy Keith Kellogg. As reported by the Reuters news agency, citing several sources, Kellogg plans to leave the post in January.
Against this background, the United States has published a new National Security Strategy, a document defining the goals of the presidency of American leader Donald Trump. It explicitly states that "an early cessation of hostilities in Ukraine" is one of Washington's key interests.
In addition, the strategy prioritizes "restoring stability in Europe and strategic stability with Russia" and separately demands "putting an end to the perception and preventing the reality of NATO as an ever-expanding alliance." This is a kind of link between the Ukrainian settlement and the broader reformatting of NATO–Russia relations. It is worth noting that the expansion of NATO has been repeatedly cited by the Kremlin as one of the root causes of the conflict in Ukraine.
Of course, such an approach to resolving the crisis is much closer to Moscow's position. Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov has already stated that the current US administration is fundamentally different from the previous ones.
"The adjustments that we see, I would say, correspond in many ways to our vision, and we can probably hope that this may be a modest guarantee that we will be able to constructively continue working together to find a peaceful settlement in Ukraine, at least," he said.
Vladimir Putin also spoke about Washington's constructive approach to the conflict in Ukraine. During a trip to Bishkek on November 27, he said that the Russian Federation sees how the United States takes into account the Russian position on Ukraine in some ways.
Perhaps Moscow and Washington will be able to agree on one of the main issues — Zelensky's legitimacy. His five-year term of office expired in May 2024, but Kiev has repeatedly rejected the possibility of new presidential elections, citing martial law.
Vladimir Putin has repeatedly pointed out the problem of the legal force of agreements that could hypothetically be concluded with Ukraine. In Bishkek, he stressed that as long as there is an "illegitimate government" in Kiev, it is "legally impossible" to sign documents with it. He also noted that the extension of powers under martial law is available only to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine.
No one is interested in taking responsibility for signing an agreement with a party whose legitimacy can be challenged, Rodion Miroshnik, the Russian Foreign Ministry's ambassador to the crimes of the Kiev regime, told Izvestia.
"As a rule, within the framework of the negotiation process, such possibilities of legalizing or signing documents are already discussed within the agreements reached, including a certain format of legalizing power," the ambassador noted.
To solve this problem, it is necessary to take a series of steps. Miroshnik stressed that the Verkhovna Rada remains conditionally legitimate on the territory of Ukraine, but it must make appropriate decisions in order to empower the Speaker of Parliament with appropriate powers.
— Without taking appropriate steps, both inside and outside the Ukrainian agenda, it is very difficult to come to a legal option. Therefore, this is a point of discussion. Today, Russia's position is clear, and then, I think, it will first be necessary to find a settlement formula, and after that it will be legalized," the ambassador stressed.
How are the plans for Gas and Ukraine similar?
As Vladimir Putin previously reported, the agreement in its current form is divided into four blocks, each of which is proposed to be discussed separately. It should not be ruled out that in one of these blocks there will be a solution to the issue of the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government.
It is worth noting that the original version of the agreement, which contained 28 points, resembled a plan to resolve the conflict in Gaza. Both the Gas plan and the Ukraine plan are 20-30-point roadmaps that simultaneously describe a cease-fire, a transitional period, and a long-term security arrangement. Both are tied to a large economic package of reconstruction under external management. In addition, in both cases, the world is built around a supranational structure under the leadership of the United States, which should "guarantee" the fulfillment of transactions.
However, they differ markedly on other issues. In the Gaza plan, everything is built around consistency: first, a cease—fire and exchanges, then the introduction of international stabilization forces and temporary external management of the sector, and after that, economic and political status issues. The plan for Ukraine, on the contrary, is divided into several thematic packages, which the parties discuss as a set of conditions for bargaining, and not as a strictly step-by-step chain of de-escalation.
It is known that Kushner was also involved in the development of the Gas plan. Western analysts attributed his participation to the political importance of the agreement for Washington. The involvement of family members in the Ukrainian settlement indicates that Trump pays special attention to this issue and is not ready to make a mistake, Tigran Meloyan believes.
However, not everyone agrees with this interpretation of what is happening. So, according to Yegor Toropov, unlike Russia, Europe and Ukraine, it is the United States that is most interested in immediate victory on the diplomatic front.
— In the name of the image of the main peacemaker of the earth, Trump is ready to sign a formal, theoretical and short-term peace rather than a real, practical and long-term one. In parallel with the intensification of US mediation efforts in the foreign policy field and isolationist tendencies in domestic political rhetoric, Europe has seized the first fiddle in financial and military support for Ukraine, the expert believes.
There is a possibility that the United States is listening to the positions of Europe, Kamran Hasanov, senior lecturer at the Department of Theory and History of Journalism at the Faculty of Philology of the RUDN University, agreed. According to him, the main points of contention now are territories and security guarantees.
The United States allows the possibility of transferring a number of territories to the Russian Federation, while Europe does not. As for security guarantees, America wants to put them on the shoulders of the Europeans, which they do not want to allow. Anyway, the expert believes, they will have to agree among themselves: without this, Trump will not make a deal with Russia.
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