Tested by the burden: the second stage of the Gas deal is stalling

The second phase of the Gas deal will begin soon, although the truce has already been seriously tested. The incident in the Rafah area, where Palestinian fighters attacked Israeli soldiers, led to retaliatory strikes by the IDF, re-emphasizing the fragility of the agreements reached. The first stage of the agreement is generally assessed positively: all surviving Israeli hostages have been released, Israel has released about 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, and humanitarian supplies have been partially restored. However, experts interviewed by Izvestia warn that the transition to the second phase of negotiations is facing serious obstacles. The main contentious issues — the disarmament of Hamas, the presence of international forces in the exclave and the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops — remain unresolved.

The escalation in Rafah

After more than two years of fighting, Israel and Hamas maintain a relatively calm ceasefire. Nevertheless, the incident in the Rafah area on the night of December 4 once again escalated the situation and cast doubt on the prospects for the second phase of a peaceful settlement.

The IDF press service reported a clash with Palestinian militants who emerged from an underground tunnel in the Rafah area. Five Israeli soldiers were injured, one of them was seriously injured. In response, the Israeli army attacked the southern part of the strip, killing six people. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Hamas of violating the ceasefire and promised to respond accordingly.

The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip came into force on October 10. The first phase of the deal was aimed at hostage exchange and humanitarian aid. As a result, Hamas released all the surviving Israeli hostages — a total of 20 people who had been held since October 7, 2023. In response, Israel released about 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, including those sentenced to life in prison. Currently, Hamas is transferring the bodies of the dead hostages to Israel: the remains of Thai national Sutthisak Rinthalak were returned from the Gaza Strip the day before.

US President Donald Trump said the truce was "going well" despite the recent clashes. "We have peace in the Middle East. Phase two is moving, it will happen very soon," he promised, adding that the recent incident does not disrupt progress.

Nevertheless, the second phase remains extremely vulnerable. Political differences, resistance to the disarmament of Hamas and international difficulties with the deployment of peacekeepers pose high risks for a stable development of events.

Neither side is ready to compromise: Israel sees these steps as vital to its security, while Hamas sees them as a threat to its existence. This creates a barrier to further normalization.

Roman Yanushevsky, editor-in-chief of the website of the 9th Israeli TV channel, told Izvestia that the key conditions for the start of negotiations remain unfulfilled. According to him, one body of the Israeli hostage, special forces soldier Rana Gvili, has not yet been returned.

— I predict that in the next week or two, Hamas will transfer this body through the Red Cross to Israel. Until this happens, the transition to the second phase is impossible," he stressed.

Countries are afraid to send troops to Gaza

Trump's plan calls for the creation of a "Peace Council" headed by the US president himself, as well as an international stabilization group that will ensure the security of the exclave. The United States promised to convince world leaders to join the council and send troops after the adoption of a UN Security Council resolution granting these structures an international mandate. However, more than two weeks have passed since the adoption of the resolution, and the list of participants has not been announced. Many countries are afraid to send troops in such unstable conditions.

Some states, including Indonesia and Azerbaijan, have expressed their willingness to send troops, but have not formally announced this due to Israel's refusal to allow Turkey's participation. According to the Times of Israel, the presence of Turkish troops is seen as a guarantee of compliance with the truce, since Hamas is less inclined to open fire on forces where Turkey is involved, acting as a guarantor of the deal.

Another key issue remains Hamas' refusal to disarm. The American side claims that the leaders of the Palestinian movement allegedly agreed to disarm during a closed-door meeting with representatives of the Trump administration. However, Hamas publicly declares the right to armed resistance to Israel.

— This is an extremely serious problem, as it slows down the whole process, — said Roman Yanushevsky. According to him, this also hinders international participation.: Indonesia, Azerbaijan, and Pakistan, which were planning to send a peacekeeping contingent, are postponing the deployment, fearing they will end up between Israel and Hamas.

The reconstruction of the Gaza Strip also remains questionable. The United States insists on starting reconstruction in the Israeli-controlled territory, but faces resistance from Arab countries and other donors who fear the consolidation of the status quo and the division of the exclave.

Israel demands the disarmament of Hamas before reconstruction work and threatens to resume hostilities if the movement does not agree to the terms soon.

The Rafah checkpoint on the border with Egypt, which has remained blocked for more than ten months, was also a significant part of Trump's plan. The opening of the checkpoint is also considered one of the key goals of the Hamas movement. On December 3, Israel announced that it would soon reopen Rafah, but only for the exit of Palestinians. At the same time, Egypt insists on a two-way traffic regime. Cairo fears that the unilateral opening of the checkpoint will lead to the eviction of Gazans.

"The Egyptians are publicly outraged that the checkpoint cannot be opened unilaterally, but I think this issue will be resolved," the expert added.

Hani Salah, an expert on Palestinian resistance issues, believes that Israel has repeatedly violated the ceasefire and failed to fulfill its obligations. According to him, we are talking not only about delays in humanitarian aid, but also about blocking the import of special equipment to restore infrastructure and dismantle rubble.

— Israel is slowing down the transition to the second phase of negotiations, and Netanyahu is trying to maintain the status quo of the first stage, extracting political benefits from it. He operates according to the Lebanese model: strikes and killings continue, as they did in southern Lebanon," the expert explained to Izvestia.

Without a specific political horizon and the inclusion of the Palestinians in the governance of Gaza, the disarmament of Hamas may prove to be an insurmountable task, and any breakdown in negotiations could rekindle the conflict.