Let's go in a wave: Kiev unleashes a "tanker war" to disrupt negotiations
The attack on the Russian tanker Midvolga 2, carrying sunflower oil, continued a series of attacks on civilian vessels in the Black Sea. The incident occurred 80 nautical miles from the Turkish coast. Earlier, on November 28 and 29— unmanned boats struck two Gambian—flagged tankers, Kairos and Virata. The security services of Ukraine actually claimed responsibility for these attacks. Turkish President Recep Erdogan expressed serious concern about the events. Vladimir Putin called the actions of the Kiev regime piracy and said that in response to these attacks, Russia would expand the range of attacks on Ukrainian ports and ships that enter them. Experts believe that the "tanker war" is a deliberate tactic by Ukraine to disrupt a peaceful settlement, as well as an attempt to distract attention from the growing problems on the line of contact and corruption scandals inside the country.
Shifting goals
The attack on a Russian tanker on December 2, like previous similar episodes, has a well—defined goal - against the background of Russia's successful offensive in the Kupyansk and Volchansk directions, the Ukrainian side decided to "change the picture" and shift attention to its actions in the Black Sea. It has now turned into a platform for demonstrating "high-profile media victories," which, according to Kiev's plan, should "gloss over" the unfavorable overall picture in the zone of its own, military expert Dmitry Boltenkov believes.
— In fact, we are witnessing an attempt to unleash a "tanker war". The goal is to create a threat to merchant shipping and thereby exert economic and psychological pressure," he said.
Experts interviewed by Izvestia agree that Kiev is pursuing several key goals in carrying out attacks. The first is an attempt to disrupt the peace talks by provoking Moscow to respond excessively harshly. The second is to strengthen our negotiating positions in the process of agreeing on the points of a potential peace agreement. And the third is to distract public attention from the growing problems on the line of contact and corruption scandals inside the country.
"We should be prepared for the fact that Kiev and its Western partners will increasingly need to resort to radical steps beyond the immediate line of hostilities in order to strengthen their 'cards,'" said Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies.
Turkey's reaction
The attack on the tanker Midvolga 2, en route from Russia to Georgia, took place 80 nautical miles from the Turkish coast. The crew of 13 people was not injured, and the ship continued to move to the port of Sinop. The Turkish Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure confirmed the incident.
Attacks using unmanned boats and drones are becoming a new form of threat to shipping. Earlier, two Gambian—flagged tankers, Kairos and Virat, were damaged in the Black Sea. Both were en route to Novorossiysk. The 274-meter Kairos sailed from Egypt and was attacked on the night of November 28 — the crew had to be evacuated. Virat withstood two strikes by unmanned boats at once — on November 28 and 29. The Ukrainian side has admitted responsibility for these attacks, several Western media outlets reported at once, citing sources in the Security Service of Ukraine. According to this information, Sea Baby drones were used for the attacks.
Turkish President Recep Erdogan expressed serious concern about the worsening situation in the Black Sea.
— The attacks on merchant vessels within our exclusive economic zone indicate an alarming escalation of the situation. We can in no way justify these attacks, which threaten the safety of navigation, life and the environment," Erdogan said.
His colleague, Russian President Vladimir Putin, was tougher.
"Attacks on tankers not even in neutral waters, but in the special economic zone of another state, a third state, is piracy,— he said, speaking to reporters at the VTB investment forum "Russia is Calling!"
According to Putin, in response to these attacks, Russia will expand the range of attacks on Ukrainian ports and ships that enter them. The Head of State also stressed that if attacks on tankers continue, Moscow will consider retaliatory measures against ships from countries that provide assistance to Kiev. He added that Ukraine would not be able to engage in piracy if it was cut off from the sea.
Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks at the plenary session of the VTB investment forum "Russia is Calling!"
"We also see a direct connection with attempts to hinder current international efforts to bring sustainable peace closer," Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a comment on the agency's website.
According to the diplomat, with the help of such terrorist attacks, it is important for Kiev to divert attention from the corruption scandal in Ukraine. Zakharova also drew attention to the fact that the Ukrainian special services actually declared their involvement in these actions by publishing video evidence of the incident in their media.
A blow to trading partners
Experts emphasize that the attacks on tankers are both military and economic aggression, which affects not only Russia.
"These actions by Kiev are primarily aimed at undermining our maritime trade traffic and putting Turkey in an awkward position, which, despite normal relations with Moscow, provides military assistance to Kiev," Vasily Dandykin believes.
The attacks could have an impact on relations between Ankara and Kiev, as well as on global trade, former Deputy Foreign Minister and Deputy UN Secretary General Sergei Ordzhonikidze said.
"Such actions demonstrate that Ukraine is an unreliable partner for building serious and long—term trade relations," he said. — Tankers are a critical tool for the delivery of goods. When the transportation of goods is disrupted due to terrorist actions, it undermines the credibility of the state. Turkey, as a key player and beneficiary of the Black Sea trade, will certainly draw the appropriate conclusions.
According to Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies, if the international community does not condemn Ukraine's actions, similar stories can happen anywhere, for example, in the Baltic Sea, where tankers carrying Russian oil from the ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk ply.
Retaliatory measures
Experts agree that the escalation of tensions in the Black Sea will inevitably lead to a harsh response from Russia. In particular, it is necessary to put into operation our own unmanned attack boats at an accelerated pace to destroy the coastal zone of Ukraine, for example, the ports of Odessa and Ochakov, which are used to unload Western weapons, Vasily Dandykin believes.
Moscow may also consider introducing a convoy system to escort tankers in high-risk areas using high-speed boats equipped with drones and light weapons, Tigran Meloyan added. Another option is to deploy armed guards directly on board ships, although this will require serious consideration of the legislative framework and conditions of entry into foreign ports.
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