Deadlocked power: US threatens Iran with new sanctions
The United States is preparing new sanctions against Iran, the details of which the Ministry of Finance will present on August 24. At the same time, the "unprecedented" economic pressure announced by Trump does not exclude new military scenarios. Negotiations between Washington and Tehran remain at an impasse - the 60—day memorandum expired on August 17, but the parties have not reached a final agreement. Moscow is ready to support mediation efforts on Iran and the situation in the Middle East if requested, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told Izvestia. Russia maintains direct contacts with the parties to the conflict and advocates a broader system of regional security. Additional opportunities for the Russian Federation are provided by the status of a permanent member of the UN Security Council.
Moscow's possible role in the Middle East
The peaceful settlement of the conflict in the Middle East between the United States and Iran has reached an impasse. Washington threatens Tehran with an "economic D-day" and promises to strengthen the blockade by extending restrictions to the Islamic Republic's trading partners, including Russia and China.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant
The head of the US Treasury, Scott Bessent, said that Washington intends to impose "the toughest sanctions in history," and promised to provide details on August 24. Earlier, Trump threatened "huge economic consequences" for any country whose banks, companies or government agencies continue to provide economic support to Iran.
However, new military scenarios against the Islamic Republic are not excluded. According to Trump, the United States is in full control of the situation and is still monitoring. Iran would very much like to conclude an agreement, but is not yet ready for the "right" deal, the head of the White House is sure.
At the same time, Moscow has traditionally advocated a return to dialogue between the parties. Moreover, she is ready to join mediation efforts in case of an appropriate appeal, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov told Izvestia.
"Russia, if requested, is ready to support mediation efforts both on the track of ending aggression against Iran and in broader terms of maintaining stability in the Middle East, including within the framework of the updated security concept in the Persian Gulf that we promote," the diplomat said.
The Russian concept is aimed at a long-term resolution of the conflict. The document provides for a phased settlement of conflicts, confidence-building measures, respect for the principle of common and indivisible security and ensuring freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Moscow advocates a mechanism that would take into account the interests of all regional players, rather than being built around the confrontation of individual blocs.
At the same time, Russia has already stated at the UN that it expects to use this initiative when discussing the post-conflict security architecture in the region. Moscow maintains direct contacts with all parties to the conflict — the United States, Iran and Israel. And in the UN Security Council, the Russian Federation cooperates with all key participants in the Middle East settlement. The document itself was handed over to the Gulf states and Iran at the end of May, and in the autumn Russia intends to discuss the updated concept at the ministerial level.
The need for long-term guarantees is seen primarily by regional players. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on August 22 that Tehran had received numerous messages from neighboring countries about the formation of new security mechanisms in the region.
Moscow's proposals on security in the Persian Gulf remain relevant, said Grigory Lukyanov, a researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. They are based on the participation of all countries in the region and the principle of indivisible security, but the main problem is the lack of trust between the parties. In addition, under Trump, the United States is not ready to recognize the role of other states as a full-fledged mediator or guarantor of agreements.
At the same time, mediation by third countries remains in demand. The States of the Middle East, as well as European and Asian importers of energy resources, are particularly interested in normalizing the situation as soon as possible. However, their ability to influence the US position is limited. According to Lukyanov, progress can be achieved only through non-public negotiations and the search for compromises on individual issues.
How are the parties to the Middle East conflict currently looking at the negotiations
The last attempt to achieve a long-term settlement was made on June 17, when the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding. It provided for an immediate cessation of hostilities and gave the parties 60 days to prepare a broader agreement on the Iranian nuclear program and American sanctions. However, the agreements quickly began to unravel due to disagreements over control of the Strait of Hormuz, and on July 8, the exchanges resumed.
By August 17, when the deadline set by the memorandum expired, the parties had not been able to reach a final agreement. Trump said he was not seeking to extend the memorandum, and the media, citing an Iranian representative, reported that the country would switch to a "fully offensive" position in the event of a further failure of diplomacy.
At the same time, contradictory signals continued to arrive from Washington. On the day the memorandum expired, US Presidential special envoy Jared Kushner said that contacts between the US authorities and various representatives of the Iranian side were "probably more intense than ever." However, the next day, Trump stated the opposite: they say, there are no negotiations or contacts with Iran and are not planned.
One should not think that the United States and Iran have refused to negotiate, Lukyanov stressed. However, both sides are confident in their strong position and are not ready to make concessions. At the same time, prolonging the conflict creates problems for both Washington and Tehran. Iran needs external financial resources, and the United States is facing the consequences of rising energy prices and transit problems through the Strait of Hormuz.
Nevertheless, tensions continue to rise. The new escalation in Lebanon and Syria is also working for this. On August 15, Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon killed at least 11 people, making them one of the deadliest since the U.S.-brokered framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon.
— What is happening in Lebanon undoubtedly makes it difficult to step up the negotiation process between Washington and Tehran. At the same time, this highlights its main vulnerability, which lies in the fact that Israel can only indirectly, through the Americans, become part of any agreements," said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Alimov.
A few days later, on August 18, Israel carried out eight airstrikes on the Syrian airbase Abu al-Duhur in Idlib province. This was the first attack on Syrian government facilities since March this year. In Israel, the actions were explained by concerns about the possible deployment of the Turkish military at the base. This time, US Special Envoy Tom Barrack has already spoken out, calling the strike an "unnecessary escalation."
According to Alimov, Israel continues to firmly defend its own understanding of security in Lebanon and Syria, but the country sees its main threat primarily in Iran. Therefore, after the end of the current conflict and the achievement of a sustainable agreement between the United States and Iran, a broader regional security architecture will be required that would take into account the interests of all states, including Israel and Iran at the same time.
So far, both sides have retained resources to continue fighting. Moreover, the conflict is slowly growing, affecting, albeit pointwise, the territory of Syria. As a result, future arrangements may require a much wider range of participants.
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