- Статьи
- World
- If he were a sultan: Trump is trying to put pressure on Iran through the Omani authorities
If he were a sultan: Trump is trying to put pressure on Iran through the Omani authorities
The future of the Strait of Hormuz may now be determined between Oman and Iran. Trump has already threatened to "bomb" the Sultanate if American plans are thwarted there. Such a harsh reaction is caused, in fact, by Washington's exclusion from the decision on Hormuz, Grigory Karasin, head of the Federation Council's international Affairs committee, told Izvestia. The situation is delicate: The United States and Oman are strategic partners, and the Senate is already rushing to ban strikes without congressional approval. However, a new military operation is unlikely, and the White House may resort to economic pressure, experts say. Whether Trump will be able to get involved in the process or expect a resumption of the war is in the Izvestia article.
Trump is escalating with Oman
The threats from the White House are now focused on Oman, which will be in trouble if the Sultanate in any way stands in the way of the United States ensuring a free Strait of Hormuz. "If they get in the way, we'll bomb them to hell," Donald Trump said in an interview with Fox News. Washington regularly expresses dissatisfaction with Oman's diplomacy: in May, the United States had already excluded Muscat from the overall negotiation process, accusing it of playing up to Tehran. The current reaction of the White House is caused by the fact that the Americans do not participate in direct agreements on the strait, Grigory Karasin, head of the Federation Council's international Affairs committee, explained to Izvestia.
— Previously, there was no agreement between Iran and Oman. And now they seem to be moving towards an agreement at the level of the two countries that make up both shores of the Strait of Hormuz. And this is exactly what causes the rejection of the "great" United States, which does not participate in this possible compromise," the senator stressed.
Previously, the Sultanate was a key mediator between Washington and Tehran, but now the White House is demanding that Muscat stop rapprochement with Iran, said political analyst Alexander Kargin. The United States is forming an anti-Iran bloc of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Bahrain, and Trump is trying to keep Oman in this coalition. Muscat's special position is due to Ibadism, the dominant branch of Islam in the country. Religious identity allows the Sultanate to maneuver between regional forces and remain a neutral diplomatic platform.
Oman's assumption of dividing the Strait of Hormuz with Iran runs counter to American strategy. Donald Trump insists that control over this key waterway should not belong to the countries of the region. In addition, the separate agreement between Muscat and Tehran excludes the UAE, Washington's most important ally, which also has access to the strait. With his harsh statements, Trump is making "emotional swings," but there will be no real blows, Kargin is sure.
The escalation was promptly opposed in the US Senate. Democrat Tim Kaine announced plans to introduce a resolution prohibiting the president from conducting military operations against Oman without the consent of Congress. Opponents use such initiatives to criticize the White House on the eve of the elections, American scholar Malek Dudakov added. However, Congress is currently on vacation, and lawmakers are unlikely to have time to quickly coordinate and adopt the document. And an open conflict with Oman is still unlikely - it has been a strategic partner of the United States for almost half a century.
Muscat's security has depended on Washington's defense guarantees for decades. The Sultanate also provides the Pentagon with access to its military infrastructure and air bases. Without the American deterrent, Oman risks being left alone with Iran, which historically claims to dominate the region. In such a scenario, the country will quickly turn from an equal partner of Tehran into its dependent satellite, the expert noted.
In addition to military resources, the White House has powerful economic levers of pressure. Oman's financial system is dollarized, and the rial exchange rate is rigidly pegged to the US currency. A possible ban on American banks conducting transactions with local companies will block the export of Omani oil and gas for dollars, which will bring down the national currency and cause panic in the market. The situation is also aggravated by the fact that the United States is consistently among the top 5 key investors in Muscat, and the bilateral trade turnover thanks to the Free Trade Agreement exceeds $4 billion.
Trump may break the agreement by imposing protective duties on Omani textiles, aluminum or chemicals. This will hit the Dukm economic zone, where Oman has invested billions in order to reduce its dependence on raw materials. Without American benefits and guarantees of protection, companies from the United States will begin to curtail their projects. And the closure of production facilities due to the loss of the market will provoke unemployment and cause mass discontent within the sultanate.
The likelihood of a renewed war between the United States and Iran
Trump's threats followed the announcement by the Iranian Foreign Ministry of reaching a "principled understanding" with Oman. The parties agreed on a roadmap according to which commercial vessels enter the Persian Gulf through the territorial waters of Iran and exit through the waters of the Sultanate. Tehran positions this as an independent treaty between the two coastal states, defining the rules of the game without external forces. At the same time, the Iranian side explicitly stated that the agreement was of a technical nature, and the strait itself would not actually open until the United States lifted the naval blockade and repaired the damage.
This agreement ruins the strategy of Washington, which hoped to force Iran to surrender with the help of a strict naval blockade. Instead of isolating Iran, it has demonstrated its ability to negotiate against the will of the White House. In such a situation, the pressure on Oman is an attempt by the United States to return Muscat to its zone of influence in order to deprive Iran of an important partner. In conditions of regional isolation, the leadership of the Islamic Republic will be easier to persuade to make concessions.
However, Iran has repeatedly demonstrated its willingness to stand its ground to the bitter end. The situation escalated to the limit after Donald Trump announced his intention to declare the Strait of Hormuz "the territory of the United States." Tehran responded harshly: the strait will remain Iranian, and shipping will resume only on the orders of its armed forces. The inevitable breakdown of the peace process is indicated by the official expiration of the 60-day truce on August 17, 2026, and the public refusal of the White House to extend the Islamabad Memorandum. The American leader bluntly stated that he does not intend to set new deadlines for negotiations and expects only capitulation from Iran.
The war between the United States and Iran may resume after the November congressional elections, Alexander Kargin believes. Right now, Trump is avoiding escalation to prevent a sharp spike in oil prices. The White House needs to wait for the vote, after which the fighting is likely to continue, as key contradictions with Tehran have not been resolved. At the same time, the outcome of the election will not affect the president's plans, because the law still allows him to conduct military operations for 60 days without congressional approval. However, Iran may resume the active phase of the conflict itself before the elections. But this would be a risky move for Tehran: Trump would gain a powerful trump card in front of American voters and easily justify the need for strikes. In such a situation, the electorate traditionally mobilizes around the current leader, the expert concluded.
All this puts Oman in front of a critical choice between sovereign diplomacy and preserving American security guarantees, on which the stability of the Sultanate fully depends. For the United States and Iran, this crisis means rather the disruption of the peace process and the transition to direct military escalation. In this situation, the Strait of Hormuz is gradually turning into a point of no return, capable of reformatting the entire security system in the Middle East.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
