To reach an agreement on the coast: the United States and Iran are trying to find a solution on Hormuz

The United States and Iran can at any moment disrupt the Omani initiative to resume traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, because they look at the rules of passage of ships in diametrically opposite ways. Nevertheless, temporary arrangements will allow global markets to catch their breath, analysts say. The American media are already revealing details of the agreement, while Donald Trump immediately warned that if Iran refuses to open the strait, the United States will resume strikes. How these statements affect the parties' line and oil quotes is described in the Izvestia article.

Opening of the Strait of Hormuz

Washington and Tehran were actively negotiating on August 4, Donald Trump said. At the same time, the work was accompanied by threats from the American president, who promised Iran new strikes if diplomacy failed. It is noteworthy that the official representative of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Esmail Bagai, initially denied the fact of direct contacts. The Islamic Republic, he said, has communicated with Oman, and also exchanges messages through Qatar and Pakistan.

According to the Axios portal, the temporary arrangements will be valid for 60 days and assume the possibility of extension. During this period, Iran will exempt vessels from duties and charges. The main purpose of the deal is to ensure the safety of navigation and pave the way for the resumption of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program. The parties are not yet ready for long-term political commitments, so the next two months will be a trial period for them.

For the Gulf States, including Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, this dialogue is a chance to create a new security system. Grigory Lukyanov, a researcher at the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia that these states are directly dependent on the exchange of blows between Iran and the United States. The expert stressed that any dialogue is better than an open clash, which deprives the region of any predictability.

At the same time, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz is critically important for the global energy market and international logistics, said Artem Valeev, CEO of FCS-Service Group. During the restrictions, carriers partially adapted, but their costs increased by an average of 17%. During peak periods, an abnormal jump in prices was recorded: daily rates for tankers with a capacity of about 2 million barrels in the Middle East—Asia direction exceeded $ 300-400 thousand, although under normal conditions they amount to only $ 30-80 thousand, he said.

After the resumption of navigation, rates will decrease, but they will not return to pre-crisis levels due to the continuing high risks, Valeev predicts. The full restoration of tanker routes will take from one to three months. The expert recalled that about 20% of the world's oil and a significant proportion of LNG are transported through the Strait of Hormuz. Any failure here instantly hits the entire chain: from carriers and insurers to traders, manufacturers and end users.

The scale of the crisis's impact on the global economy clearly reflects the dynamics of the oil market. The blocking of the strait in March 2026 triggered a record monthly increase in commodity prices. Already on March 8, the price of Brent crude oil exceeded $100 for the first time in four years, and at its peak reached $126-144 per barrel. In May, the quotes gained a foothold above $104.5. Throughout July, the market was in a fever: due to regular shelling and damage to tankers, Brent was held in the region of $ 85-90. Futures have now collapsed below $79 per barrel, updating a three-week low.

On August 5, Trump said that, in general, negotiations with Iran were progressing successfully, and promised that new information on their results would be available within 48 hours.

Prospects for long-term peace in the Middle East

However, opening the strait does not guarantee long-term peace due to the diametrically opposed approaches of the United States and Iran. Washington considers the Strait of Hormuz to be an international strait where any commercial and military vessels have the right to free transit without anyone's permission.

shenia. Tehran insists that the strait is completely blocked by the territorial waters of Iran and Oman. According to the authorities of the Islamic Republic, only the right of peaceful passage applies here, which it can restrict for hostile states, and above all for the US Navy, if it sees them as a threat to its security.

This dispute directly determines the financial side of the issue. The White House is convinced that navigation should be absolutely free, and Trump's team brands any attempts to charge for security as a "maritime racket" and the destruction of global trade. Iran's logic is different: since the country spends resources on mine clearance, patrols and environmental control, it has every right to charge service fees from passing ships.

Due to the lack of trust and deep disagreements between the parties, any peace initiative risks failure, Lukyanov warned. Nevertheless, the 60-day period will allow at least temporarily to ease tensions and return predictability to the markets, given that so far the participants in the dialogue are not making long-term commitments.

Such a short—term format is a standard practice that the mediators have already resorted to in the Palestinian-Israeli and Lebanese-Israeli conflicts. This is a compromise step reflecting the only possible way of diplomacy today. The acclaimed "Islamabad Memorandum" proved difficult to implement precisely because of its scale. The comprehensive strategic partnership agreement, which was supposed to resolve key contradictions in the Middle East, provided for a complete cessation of mutual shelling, unblocking trade routes and resolving the problems surrounding the Iranian nuclear issue. In practice, the agreement failed.

According to Lukyanov, it is now more effective to use a set of parallel local tracks to give the parties time to exchange information and coordinate positions.

However, so far, both Tehran and Washington have willingly sacrificed negotiations to protect their positions.. And if the status of the Strait of Hormuz still leaves room for maneuver, then the US ultimatum on the complete curtailment of the nuclear program is categorically rejected by Iran. Unless the White House changes its rhetoric, lasting peace in the region is unlikely.