It's not August.: what will happen to the ruble in a traditionally bad period for it
Despite the fact that August is traditionally considered a weak and even bad month for the ruble, its exchange rate is unlikely to fall below 83 rubles/$, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. And by the end of the summer, it will completely return to 80 rubles / $. The sharp weakening at the beginning of the month occurred due to the fact that Russia began to receive more modest June foreign exchange earnings, while the demand for foreign money increased due to purchases of gasoline and the need to restore stocks of imported goods in attacked warehouses. What will happen to the national currency by the end of the year is in the Izvestia article.
The dollar is above 81 rubles — the reasons
The Central Bank raised the dollar exchange rate immediately to 81.1 rubles on August 5. This is the highest level since April 1. On August 6, the regulator set the exchange rate at 80.9 rubles. The main reason for this weakening is that the balance of exports and imports has shifted against the ruble, stated Alexander Bakhtin, investment strategist at Garda Capital. The fact is that the supply of currency, which reaches the domestic market with a lag of one to two months, is based on the June oil prices, when raw materials became significantly cheaper.
At the same time, import flows are growing seasonally, to which fuel purchases were added in the summer, requiring an increased amount of currency, Alexander Bakhtin said. An additional contribution could be made by the situation around attacks on marketplace warehouses and the need for businesses to replenish stocks of destroyed products, which increases demand for imports, added Alexey Rodin, founder of Rodin Capital and financial adviser.
In addition, according to him, the exchange rate in August is traditionally under pressure from the seasonal demand of the population for foreign currency during the peak of the holidays, as well as attempts by importers to stock up before the start of the autumn business season, the expert said. It is also important that the negative effect on the ruble has intensified against the background of the consistent easing of monetary policy by the Bank of Russia: the lower the rates, the less motivation companies have to store funds inside the country, and they prefer to keep the proceeds in foreign currency. However, interest rates in Russian banks are still very attractive.
Finally, exchanges could react to the promotion of a bill on tough new sanctions in the US Senate, admitted Finam analyst Alexander Potavin. In addition, some of the rubles withdrawn by citizens from their accounts could come to the market amid anxiety — in July, the volume of cash in circulation increased by 643.4 billion rubles, the most since the beginning of the year — people could use these funds to buy foreign currency to diversify their savings.
Why August is traditionally a bad month for the ruble
August has historically been considered a difficult month for the Russian currency, and in most cases, since 1998, the ruble has been declining during this period, financial adviser Alexei Rodin recalled. Over the past 27 years, the national currency has fallen 20 times in August.
— This trend is mainly caused by the growing demand for foreign currency from both importers who purchase goods at the end of summer, already preparing in advance for holiday sales at the end of the year, and the population who demand foreign cash because they go abroad on vacation. This year, vacations in traditional Russian southern resorts look risky, so for many Russians, traveling to neighboring countries, Turkey, or even Europe has become relevant again — to countries where it is not so difficult for Russians to obtain a visa," explained Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Global.
Nevertheless, the experts interviewed by Izvestia are quite positive in their forecasts for the ruble exchange rate in August 2026. Sharp fluctuations should not be expected before the end of the month, Alexander Bakhtin from Garda Capital is convinced. The technical ceiling for the dollar may be 82.5 rubles, after which the exchange rate will return to below 80 rubles due to the current oil prices above $ 80, the tax period and possible positive signals on geopolitics.
The ruble will also be supported by the fact that in the coming month, the Bank of Russia will increase the volume of daily net purchases of foreign currency under the budget rule by 20% to 5.92 billion rubles per day. On August 5, the Ministry of Finance announced this, specifying that the agency would allocate 136.17 billion rubles for this purpose, compared to 123.2 billion a month earlier, Alexander Potavin noted.
— This month, the dollar exchange rate is likely to trade in the range of 79-83 rubles. The euro exchange rate at this time will probably remain in the range of 90-94, and the yuan exchange rate will be in the range of 11.8–12.1 rubles. In the second half of August and in September, the domestic market may receive an increased volume of currency from the July wave of rising oil prices, so no one canceled the new waves of strengthening of the ruble, he expects.
The consequences of the weakening of the ruble
At the moment of a sharp rise in prices due to the weakening of the ruble, one should not expect, since higher exchange rates have already been included in the basic business scenarios, believes Alexey Rodin from Rodin Capital. The market is currently in a waiting phase, but if the ruble continues to weaken in September, it will start to push up inflation, the expert warned.
If this wave of ruble depreciation turns out to be short-term and gives way to strengthening by the end of the month, its overall impact on inflation and the Central Bank's rate decision will remain minimal, according to Kirill Kononov, an analyst at BCS World Investments. Cooling fuel prices is now much more important for inflation, Alexander Bakhtin added.
And for the Russian economy, the weakening of the ruble is generally favorable, as it allows to increase the base of oil and gas tax revenues to the budget and eliminates losses from exchange rate differences for exporters, Natalia Milchakova believes. Additional tax revenues due to a weaker currency are especially relevant against the background of the growing federal budget deficit, which has already reached 5.7 trillion rubles in the first half of 2026, exceeding the initial plan for the whole year (3.8 trillion rubles).
What will happen to the ruble by the end of 2026
The equilibrium of about 80 rubles per dollar, which was found at the end of August, will be replaced by a weakening with the beginning of the business season, an increase in budget expenditures and the cumulative effect of lowering the key interest rate, investment strategist Alexander Bakhtin believes. By the end of the year, the exchange rate will gradually approach 83-84 rubles per dollar, 95-96 rubles per euro and 12.5 rubles per yuan, he expects.
— After a temporary strengthening at the end of August, by the end of the year, the ruble will resume a smooth decline and drop to the level of 84 rubles per dollar, Kirill Kononov from BCS World Investments agrees.
Alexander Potavin from Finam adheres to a similar assessment, he believes that by the end of the year the dollar will be trading at 85 rubles.
Although the devaluation corridor of up to 100 rubles per dollar looks optimal for supporting the budget and exporters by the end of the year, independent expert Andrey Barkhota believes. His baseline scenario for the fourth quarter is more pessimistic: he assumes that the dollar will cost 88-93 rubles, the euro — 98-103, and the yuan - 12.4–12.9 rubles.
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