Not according to the old course: what awaits the dollar and the ruble in August 2026

Traditionally, August is considered one of the most difficult months for the Russian currency. Historically, it was during this period that the ruble often noticeably weakened against the dollar, which is why the last summer month gained a reputation for being "unfavorable" for the national currency. However, in 2025, this trend was disrupted: by the end of August, the dollar did not strengthen, but, on the contrary, fell slightly against the ruble — by 0.22%. What to expect from the exchange rate of the US currency in August 2026 and what factors will determine its dynamics is in the Izvestia article.

What will happen to the ruble in August 2026

By the beginning of August 2026, the Russian ruble remains relatively stable. The main support for the exchange rate is still provided by the state of foreign trade: the current account surplus remains one of the key factors for the stability of the national currency. According to the Bank of Russia, in May 2026, the surplus amounted to $8.1 billion. Experts note that the situation did not change significantly in June and July — export revenues and restrained imports continue to support demand for the Russian currency.

The policy of the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Russia within the framework of the budget rule has an additional impact on the market. Starting from July 7, 2026, the agency announced a reduction in purchases of foreign currency and gold to 5.4 billion rubles per day, which is significantly lower than the previous volume of 9.91 billion rubles per day. It was also reported that the operations will be carried out within the framework of the budget rule in the period up to August 6, 2026. At the same time, in the second half of the year, the Central Bank sells currency for 0.58 billion rubles daily, almost eight times less than in the first half of the year, when the volume was 4.62 billion rubles. As a result, the total net purchases of foreign currency decreased to 4.82 billion rubles per day against 5.29 billion rubles in June.

Against the background of these factors, the foreign exchange market remains stable. According to Andrei Loboda, a member of RASO and an expert of the AFD Council for the development of the over—the—counter financial market, at the end of July, over–the-counter dollar trades could be in the range of 77-79 rubles, euro - 87-92 rubles, and yuan - 11.40-12 rubles.

The official exchange rate of the Bank of Russia on July 25 was 78 rubles per dollar, 88.8 rubles per euro and 11.5 rubles per yuan. On July 27, the Chinese currency was also trading near 11.5 rubles on the Moscow Stock Exchange.

One of the factors that influenced the dynamics of the national currency at the end of July was the decision of the Bank of Russia on the key rate. The market expected the indicator to remain at 14.25% per annum, but the regulator lowered it to 14%. According to Andrei Loboda, this step was a compromise between the need to support a slowing economy and the desire to maintain control over inflationary risks. After the Central Bank's decision, the dollar quickly returned to around 78 rubles, which demonstrated the high dependence of the foreign exchange market on changes in monetary policy.

The ruble also continues to be supported by high prices for energy resources and other major categories of Russian exports. However, experts point out that in the medium term, external risks may increase the impact: new sanctions, difficulties with international settlements and restrictions on access to the global financial infrastructure can gradually create additional pressure on the exchange rate.

At the same time, market participants do not rule out a moderate weakening of the ruble in the coming months. Yelena Marchuk, Deputy Chairman of the Board of JSC National Savings Bank, noted that in conditions of high volatility of the foreign exchange market, attempts by private investors to guess the optimal moment to buy a dollar or euro are becoming less effective. According to her, the exchange rate is simultaneously influenced by several factors at once — oil prices, decisions of the Central Bank, sanctions policy and expectations of the population.

What are global investors waiting for?

In addition to internal factors, the dynamics of the dollar against the ruble in August 2026 will be influenced by the situation on the global foreign exchange market. Now the mood of large investors is in favor of the US currency: market participants are actively increasing bets on its further strengthening.

According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the combined net long position of hedge funds and other speculative investors in the dollar has reached $43.3 billion. This is the highest figure for at least the last decade. In the last week alone, the volume of bets on the growth of the US currency increased by 10.5%, from $39.2 billion to $43.3 billion.

The dollar has remained among investors' favorites for 19 consecutive weeks. At the same time, a few months ago, the situation was the opposite: before the outbreak of the military conflict between Israel and Iran, speculators held a net short position in the US currency for about $ 22 billion. However, then the expectations of market participants changed dramatically.

The main reason for the reversal was the revised forecasts regarding the future policy of the US Federal Reserve System. Investors have become less likely to expect a rapid decline in interest rates in the country, and the high yield on U.S. bonds has increased the attractiveness of dollar assets. In addition, against the background of ongoing geopolitical tensions, the dollar continues to be perceived as a defensive currency, which supports demand for it during periods of uncertainty.

At the same time, the situation with other global currencies is changing. Speculators increased their long positions in the British pound to the highest level since mid-May, and bets on the growth of the Australian dollar decreased to their lowest levels since the beginning of the year. The weakest expectations were formed for the New Zealand currency: the volume of net short positions on it reached a record level in the entire history of CFTC observations, which have been conducted since 2006.

However, such a high concentration of bets on the strengthening of the dollar can become not only a support factor, but also a potential source of sharp fluctuations. If the Fed gives unexpected signals on monetary policy or the US economic statistics turn out to be weaker than expected, investors may start taking profits. This can lead to a rapid decrease in demand for the dollar and increased volatility in the global foreign exchange market.

What factors will determine the ruble exchange rate in August

The ruble exchange rate in August 2026 will be influenced by both domestic economic indicators and the situation on world markets. The main factors include the state of foreign trade, the decisions of the Bank of Russia and the dynamics of oil prices.

The current account surplus remains one of the main stabilizers of the ruble. According to the Central Bank, in May 2026, the surplus amounted to $8.1 billion against $6.2 billion in April and $0.9 billion a year earlier. The growth of the indicator is associated with an increase in the value of exports. In January—May, the surplus increased from $21.8 billion to $27 billion in annual terms, reflecting the strengthening of foreign trade.

Monetary policy remains another important factor. On July 24, the Bank of Russia lowered its key rate by 25 basis points to 14% per annum. This was the ninth consecutive decline. The decision turned out to be unexpected for the market: most analysts had predicted that the rate would remain at 14.25%. Easing the Central Bank's policy may gradually reduce the attractiveness of ruble assets, but at the same time it supports economic activity.

Oil prices can provide additional support to the ruble. On July 23, the price of Brent exceeded $100 per barrel for the first time since May 2026 amid the worsening situation in the Middle East. Despite the agreements between the United States and Iran, the ongoing tensions pose risks to supplies and support oil prices.

Why is August considered a "dangerous" month for the ruble

August has long been recognized by the ruble as one of the most unstable months of the year. Between 1998 and 2025, the dollar strengthened against the Russian currency in 20 out of 28 cases, while the depreciation of the US currency was observed only eight times. At the same time, even during the years of the ruble's strengthening, its growth was relatively small — it did not exceed 3%.

After the announcement of the default on government obligations and the expansion of the currency corridor, the dollar exchange rate went up sharply. On August 25, 1998, it went down in history as the second "black Tuesday": at the MICEX auction, the dollar immediately rose in price by 10%, to 7.86 rubles. At the end of the month, the US currency added 58.41%, which remains the largest decline in the ruble in August over the entire observation period.

The second largest weakening of the Russian currency occurred in August 2018, when the dollar rose by 8.08%. At that time, several factors put pressure on the ruble at once: increased sanctions rhetoric against Russia, higher interest rates in the United States, and a general decrease in investor interest in emerging market currencies.

The third largest was the weakening of the ruble in August 2024, with the dollar gaining 5.24%. At that time, the foreign exchange market was significantly affected by the blocking US sanctions against the Moscow Stock Exchange and the National Clearing Center, which led to the termination of exchange trading in dollars and euros in Russia on June 12, 2024. Additional pressure was exerted by the consistent easing of the requirements for mandatory repatriation of export earnings: in June, the standard was reduced from 80% to 60%, and in July from 60% to 40%.

At the same time, the ruble managed to completely avoid the "August curse" only sporadically. The most successful was August 2017, when the dollar fell from 59.78 to 58.02 rubles, or 2.9%. The last such case occurred in 2025: contrary to long-term statistics, the US currency did not grow, but, on the contrary, decreased against the ruble by 0.22%, which was another exception to the historical trend.

It should be borne in mind that the dynamics of the exchange rate for 2024-2025 is not quite comparable with previous periods. After the termination of exchange trading, the Bank of Russia calculates the official dollar exchange rate based on banks' data on over-the-counter transactions. Therefore, when analyzing the movement of the US currency, analysts also focus on the quotes of the USDRUBF perpetual futures, which today most accurately reflect the market value of the dollar/ruble pair.