Transcaucasian wounds: a tough fight against the opposition has begun in Armenia
Yerevan has received carte blanche from the West to persecute the opposition and dissidents, the "I have the Honor" parliamentary bloc told Izvestia. Although, according to experts, the opposition is actually pursuing a pro-Armenian policy rather than a pro-Russian one, with the desire to maintain allied relations with the Russian Federation. The pro-European vector will hit the republic's economy and lead the country into Turkey's sphere of influence, experts believe.
Persecution of the opposition in Armenia
The Armenian authorities have increased pressure on the opposition. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said he intends to "bring to his knees and destroy" the leaders of the opposing factions, whom he called the three-headed mafia. The Prime Minister intends to crack down on them even after the ruling Civil Contract party won almost 50% of the vote in the parliamentary elections.
Former President of Armenia, leader of the Armenia bloc Robert Kocharyan
The leader of the Armenia bloc, who received almost 10% of the vote, former President of the Republic Robert Kocharyan, was banned from leaving the country on June 15. The security forces blocked his flight at the Yerevan airport without explaining the reasons. Kocharyan was going to visit Russia. Samvel Karapetyan, the leader of Strong Armenia, the second largest parliamentary bloc, which won more than 23% of the vote, is under house arrest. According to him, mass arrests of activists and supporters of the party took place during the elections: more than 700 detainees. And a criminal case was opened against Gagik Tsarukyan, the leader of Prosperous Armenia, who won almost 4% of the vote, under the article on tax evasion.
The repression is taking place with the support of the West, Hayk Mamidzhanyan, head of the parliamentary bloc "I have the Honor," told Izvestia.
— Nikol Pashinyan is ready to indulge the desires of any external forces in order to obtain guarantees for the extension of his power. At this stage, he receives these guarantees from the West, along with carte blanche for repression against opposition politicians and dissident citizens. Anti—Russian activities and statements are the only geopolitical service or geopolitical "commodity" that Pashinyan "sells" in the West," the parliamentarian stressed.
The "I have the Honor" bloc entered the National Assembly of the VIII convocation following the results of the 2021 elections, gaining 5.22% of the vote and receiving seven deputy mandates. The alliance retains the status of a parliamentary force until the start of the new parliament. The faction did not participate in the 2026 elections.
The head of the "I have the Honor" faction, Member of the Armenian Parliament Hayk Mamidzhanyan (center) during a rally of the opposition Republican Party of Armenia at the Yerevan Municipality building
The main problem of the Armenian opposition is that it is fragmented, noted RIAC program manager Milan Lazovich. According to him, the emergence of a "Strong Armenia" has partially closed the public demand for a new force, different from Pashinyan's line. Robert Kocharyan and Gagik Tsarukyan represent the old political parties, which have worse ratings. But it was not possible to fully rally the electorate.
— Pashinyan himself is an impulsive, emotional person, maybe even vindictive. It is especially important for him to respond to his opponents. But this is rather a sign of the regime's weakness. Pashinyan stated that Armenia is a democratic country. But in fact, if we look at his actions — harassment of the opposition, travel restrictions — it doesn't look like democracy," the expert stressed.
Actions against the opposition are specifically presented to Western countries as a fight against Russia's influence, the head of the Analytical Center for Strategic Studies and Initiatives told Izvestia Hayk Khalatyan.
"In order to find support in the West, everything is presented precisely as the defeat of pro—Russian forces, although in reality these are pro—Armenian forces, but they are determined to preserve and develop allied relations with Moscow," the expert noted.
The repression against the opposition does not remove the main problem of Armenia — the lack of trust among a significant part of society in the results of the elections, Khalatyan added. At the same time, according to him, Pashinyan's actions do not contribute to overcoming the split.
The election results demonstrate the division of voters into two comparable camps. The ruling Civil Contract party won 49.75% of the vote, while the total result of the three main opposition forces was about 37% (excluding the votes of small protest parties). A significant part of citizens and political forces do not recognize the official results as legitimate. On June 14, protests were held outside the CEC building in Yerevan. Opposition forces are preparing lawsuits to the Constitutional Court to invalidate the elections.
The main reasons for the split were the Karabakh issue, as well as the international recognition of the Armenian Genocide by Turkey. Nikol Pashinyan's government has radically dismantled the former national ideology in order to make peace with Baku and Ankara.
For 30 years, the Karabakh issue has been the core of the Armenian statehood. Pashinyan called on more than 100,000 Karabakh Armenians who became refugees after the events of 2023 to "settle down and settle" in Armenia. He bluntly stated that promoting the topic of "return to Artsakh" is a destructive policy that hinders the establishment of peace. For millions of Armenians, giving up Karabakh is a national humiliation.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan during voting in the parliamentary elections
Another such issue is the recognition of the 1919 tragedy in the Ottoman Empire at the international level. For decades, it has been a priority of Armenia's foreign policy. The government has announced that it is abandoning this vector. Pashinyan said that Yerevan should stop looking for historical justice in the past. Opponents claim that he is actually adopting Turkish theses. Society perceives this as an insult to the memory of 1.5 million victims and a capitulation to Ankara for the sake of opening borders. It is still closed, but the parties declare their readiness to change this in the near future. Turkey emphasizes that the dynamics of the process directly depends on the signing of a full-fledged peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan. However, the parties have not yet announced specific dates.
How will severing ties with Russia affect Armenia
Russia has been one of Armenia's main patrons for many years. However, the current pro-European vector does not benefit bilateral relations, Mamidzhanyan added.
"If Pashinyan can remain at the helm, the risk of artificially distancing Armenia from Russia will not only increase, but will also escalate into concrete and irreversible actions that will only have negative consequences for both Yerevan and Moscow," the leader of the I Have the Honor bloc is confident.
Armenia buys gas from Russia at a discounted price of $165 per 1,000 cubic meters. In Europe, stock prices range from $500–$600 per 1,000 cubic meters, which is almost 3-3.5 times more expensive. Switching to such tariffs will result in a budget deficit for Armenia. Rising prices for housing and communal services will significantly affect the solvency of ordinary residents. In turn, the Armenian Metsamor NPP, which provides up to 40% of the country's electricity, is completely dependent on Russian nuclear fuel supplies and maintenance by Rosatom.
In addition, Russia is Armenia's main trading partner. The total contribution of the Russian Federation to the Armenian economy is equivalent to 25% of the country's GDP and is estimated at $7.2 billion. There are no alternatives to the Russian market for agriculture and the food industry, two key sectors of the republic. More than 80-90% of fruit and vegetable exports go to Russia. The EU will not accept them due to strict quotas, standards and protection of its agricultural industry. It is impossible to reorient these volumes of perishable products in a short time.
Withdrawal from the EAEU means an automatic refund of duties (on average +30% of the cost of goods), which will make Armenian products uncompetitive. The compensation promised by the European Commission in the amount of €50 million will cover only a small part of these losses. Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated that simultaneous membership in the EU and the EAEU is impossible because the blocs have different standards. The Russian leader called on the Armenian authorities to hold a national referendum on joining the European Union as soon as possible. Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are also demanding a vote in order to prepare for the country's withdrawal from the EAEU and avoid risks to the economic security of the union.
However, according to Lazovich, the country is not ready to hold a referendum yet. According to him, Armenia has all the preferences for membership in the EAEU, including the absence of the need to apply for working patents. Residents of the republic can easily work in the Russian Federation and transfer money to their homeland.
But the main thing is in politics. Having lost Russia's support, Armenia will fall into the sphere of influence of Turkey and Azerbaijan, Mamidzhanyan stressed.
— This is exactly what Nikol Pashinyan's foreign policy will lead to. He is trying to put a "sweet glaze" on the prospects of EU membership, a bitter and deadly pill of the total influence of Turkey and Azerbaijan for the future of Armenia," the parliamentarian added.
According to him, Armenia has no borders with the EU, and Turkey and Georgia, which border the republic, have the status of a candidate for the European Union. In the case of Ankara, this process has been going on for decades and has no prospects, and relations between Tbilisi and the EU leave much to be desired.
— I'm not saying that the EU has stated many times that there are no real prospects for Armenia's membership in the near future. It should also be taken into account that NATO is the guarantor of the EU's security, and the nearest NATO base is located in Turkey (Incirlik). I can hardly believe that the Turkish military, even in a NATO uniform, will be able to guarantee the security of Armenia and its borders," Mamidzhanyan concluded.
Armenia's foreign policy trajectory poses serious risks to its economic security. A break with Russia threatens Armenia with the loss of trade preferences, export restrictions and rising energy prices. The weakening of long-standing ties with Russia and the EAEU integration structures can create a power vacuum in the South Caucasus. In the long term, Ankara, whose strategy is aimed at consistently strengthening its position in the region, may become a key beneficiary of such changes. At the same time, real membership in the European Union remains a long-term and legally difficult prospect for Armenia, requiring a complete withdrawal from the EAEU.
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