Atmosphere of collapse: unexpected election results in Armenia lead to protests

The parliamentary elections in Armenia ended with the announcement of the victory of the ruling Civil Contract party, but the opposition has already begun the procedure of mass contesting the results. Despite the apparent calm of the streets of Yerevan, experts predict a protracted crisis in the republic and a surge in protest activity due to Nikol Pashinyan's lack of a solid constitutional majority. Western observers have acknowledged the facts of pressure on the opposition, as well as the persecution of activists. However, the EU is already preparing to discuss new measures to support the country with Yerevan, the association's ambassador to Yerevan, Vasilis Maragos, told Izvestia. What kind of falsifications Pashinyan is accused of, what can change the recount of votes and what violations the observers have recorded — in the Izvestia report from Yerevan.

The day after the elections in Yerevan

On the morning after the parliamentary elections, an unusually large number of security forces were on duty at Republic Square in Yerevan. At least five police vans were parked at different points in the government quarter. The day before, such an increase was not observed. The fact that the republic had just gone through an important vote was only reminded by street banners (unknown people had painted some election posters), as well as a van with the image of Spider-Man, which was on the ballots under the second number as the "Me against All" party. By the way, he was even able to get 1% of the votes.

The elections were held with a record turnout of almost 59%, and the political struggle did not subside for a minute. At night, just six hours after the polls closed, the leader of the Civil Contract, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, arrived at his party's office and declared victory. Although at that time, only 10% of the ballots were officially counted.

Of course, the opposition reacted sharply to this. In the "Strong Armenia" block of businessman Samvel Karapetyan, this step was regarded as an attempt to put pressure on the Central Election Commission. The CEC reported that the Civil Contract had previously won 49.8% of the votes, the Strong Armenia bloc - 23.28%, and the Armenia bloc - 9.93%. Interestingly, the commission eventually changed the preliminary voting results. As a result, businessman Gagik Tsarukyan's Prosperous Armenia opposition party, which advocates maintaining relations with the Russian Federation, lost a record 4% and now probably will not enter the new parliament. The official position is that the data has been adjusted, among other things, due to the fact that the results of electronic voting were not initially taken into account. The opposition has announced plans to challenge this outcome.

Serious discrepancies have already begun to surface during the recount. It turned out that according to the physical protocol of the election commission at polling station 27/7, Prosperous Armenia received 77 votes, while in the electronic system of the Central Election Commission there is only one vote for the party. The picture is similar at the 12/20 polling station: 26 real votes miraculously turned into one on the Central Election Commission website. And there are many such episodes, according to the oppositionists.

Prospects for protests in Armenia

The opposition called the election campaign "shameful," recalling harsh administrative pressure, mass detentions of supporters and an unprecedented volume of violations.

The dirty struggle with the opposition had an impact on the political situation and the election results, Victor Mnatsakanyan, president of the Pobeda party, told Izvestia. The government, which came under the slogans of democracy and freedom of speech, itself began to put pressure on political opponents and citizens who express disagreement.

"For one comment or statement on the Internet, for a like in the feed, for one oppositional statement against the prime minister, a person can be deprived of a job in government structures or create serious problems for him," he said.

And although Pashinyan's party was able to officially get 49.8%, which will give it the opportunity to take most of the seats in parliament, the "Civil Contract" will not have a constitutional majority. Back on May 23, Pashinyan stated that he was ready to resign if 300-500 thousand citizens voted against him. Now the opposition, which has received a total of more than 460,000 votes, demands that the authorities bear political responsibility for these words.

The absence of a constitutional majority and further polarization in society may lead to protests in Armenia, said Sergey Margulis, Associate Professor of the Department of Political Science and Political Management at the RANEPA Presidential Academy of Sciences.

— This is possible in the near future. Everything will depend on how consolidated the Armenian opposition can act. But society as a whole is ready to take to the streets," he told Izvestia. — In large cities, performances can become large-scale. At the same time, the administrative and law enforcement resources are on Pashinyan's side.

The polarization in Armenian society has unprecedented proportions, says Dmitry Sidorov, Head of the Department of Foreign Regional Studies at MGLU, Candidate of Political Sciences.

— It turned out that almost all the leading political forces are not satisfied with the results of the last elections. The Civil Contract will not have a constitutional majority, the Strong Armenia party and the Armenia bloc claim that the final figures do not reflect political reality," he said in a conversation with Izvestia.

According to the analyst, much will depend on the further actions of the political leaders.

— In Moldova, too, the opposition disagreed with the election results, and mass demonstrations took place. But gradually the protest potential dried up and everyone accepted the new status quo. I think that mass protests are quite likely in Armenia, the authorities have given many reasons for this. The question is how much these protests can affect the situation in the country," he said.

European observers at the elections in Armenia

The elections were unfair from the very beginning. There was unprecedented pressure on the church, arrests and searches of oppositionists were carried out almost daily. Such unprecedented pressure was also reported by Western observers. A large—scale OSCE mission of 457 people from 42 countries monitored the elections. The delegation presented its preliminary conclusions at a press conference in Yerevan on June 8.

The atmosphere on the sidelines was peculiar. A lot of foreign journalists gathered in the Armenian capital, and before the briefing began, the Izvestia correspondent witnessed a revealing scene. The two reporters, taking their seats, sincerely and joyfully congratulated each other on Pashinyan's victory.

— That's how it should be done! And there was even no prohibition of parties! — One of them said, laughing.

The EU Ambassador to Armenia is located in the first row of the conference hall. A German journalist was sitting next to him, with a sticker with the Ukrainian flag on the case of her smartphone. At the same time, the official statements from the podium turned out to be much less enthusiastic than the mood of the press.

"The campaign was extremely confrontational, accompanied by divisive rhetoric, and marked by accusations of vote—buying and other electoral violations," said Farah Karimi, head of the OSCE short—term observer mission.

After these words, the photographers scurried around in search of the best camera angles. According to Karimi, such an aggressive style has led to numerous criminal cases against the opposition, which is why many citizens were simply afraid to actively participate in the elections.

"All this, along with the pressure on public sector workers to drive them to the events of the ruling party, has raised concerns about equality of opportunity," she added.

Observers also criticized the media environment and one-sided media coverage of the election campaign.

Moscow was also mentioned at the press conference. The head of the European Parliament delegation, Natalie Lazo, accused Russia of using "trade measures" to influence the elections, referring to the Rosselkhoznadzor's restrictions on the import of some Armenian agricultural products. However, the next speaker quickly returned the focus to the internal problems of the republic.

The head of the OSCE/ODIHR mission, Janez Lenarcic, confirmed that the observers received reliable signals about pressure on state employees and the creation of an "atmosphere of fear" in the regions. When asked by a Swedish journalist whether these elections could be called fair and free, the speakers evaded a direct answer, citing the fact that one formula "is not enough to explain everything we have seen."

After the press conference, Farah Karimi explained to Izvestia that the criminal cases against opposition leaders had created a persistent sense of "selective justice" among the population.

— The judicial system must determine the culpability. But we want to say that people have questions: why is the attention of the security forces focused mainly on opposition leaders and why are representatives of the ruling party not held accountable for similar violations? — she noted.

Izvestia also had a brief conversation with the EU Ambassador to Armenia, Vasilis Maragos. When asked whether Brussels is preparing economic support measures for Yerevan after the elections, the diplomat replied dryly.:

— We will discuss this with the authorities (Armenian. — Ed.).

They tried to avoid the Russian press at the event. When we approached Lazo and introduced ourselves, she briefly consulted with the assistant and refused to answer any questions. The main thing is that she answers the questions of Armenian voters, who have received a government with questionable legitimacy under their watchful eye.

Pashinyan's next victory, apparently, means further rapprochement of the republic with the EU and a proportional distance from Moscow. The Russian side has already warned that integration into European structures is incompatible with participation in the EAEU. Switching to Brussels standards could jeopardize Armenia's access to the Russian market and cheap gas. This is a huge risk for Yerevan, given that Russia remains the country's main economic and energy partner.

— This is the victory of irrationalism, defeatism, the lowest phenomena in society. This republic will face not only more humiliations, defeats and failures. Her future fate, her very existence, is in great doubt. Russia warned as much as it could. Moscow has a clear conscience," Georgy Asatryan, deputy director of the Center for the Institute of Military Economics and Strategy at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, told Izvestia.

However, so far in Yerevan there is little thought about this. Now Pashinyan will focus his efforts on suppressing opponents — he said this immediately after the election and called the opposition a "three-headed party of war." According to him, this force must be "eradicated" along with the "criminal oligarchic system," and the leaders of the opposition forces that entered parliament "must be held accountable and end up in prison."