Double game: how Pashinyan's new term is dangerous for Armenia
The Civil Contract party of Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will be able to form a government on its own. As a result of the elections, she received 64 mandates, while the opposition forces had 41. Against this background, pressure on the opposition is increasing in the country. Experts are already talking about a dangerous trend. How Pashinyan's new victory may turn out for Armenia is in the Izvestia article.
Protest sentiments
The Civil Contract party will be able to form a government independently, without a coalition. Formally, the result allows Nikol Pashinyan to retain control of power: his party won 49.7% of the vote, but under Armenian law it received additional mandates.
Samvel Karapetyan's "Strong Armenia" bloc came in second place. He received 28 mandates and another seat in the quota of national minorities from the Assyrian community. Next is the Armenia bloc of former President Robert Kocharian, which has 12 seats.
"This is a historic victory that will definitely ensure the eternity and development of the Republic of Armenia, and, of course, we will have a long and institutional peace," Pashinyan solemnly announced after the announcement of the results.
However, it is difficult to call the situation peaceful. Six opposition parties and blocs in the republic refused to recognize the parliamentary elections as legitimate. "The election results cannot serve as a basis for the formation of a legitimate government with the confidence of the people," said Aram Vardevanyan, a representative of the Strong Armenia bloc.
The most painful result was Gagik Tsarukyan's "Prosperous Armenia." The party lacked only 60 votes to overcome the 5% barrier. The political force itself claims that the votes were actually stolen after the CEC invalidated the vote at three polling stations at once.
Gagik Tsarukyan at an election rally
Moreover, the commission refused to comply with the court's decision to hold a repeat vote, citing the risk of "tactical voting." They say that people already know the results, which means they can change their mind. But few people were convinced by this explanation.
"It is obvious to everyone that the invalidation of the results in these particular polling stations was done intentionally and consistently so that the Prosperous Armenia party would not end up in parliament as a result of arithmetic manipulations," said Iveta Tonoyan, a representative of the party.
It was the pressure on opponents that became the main background of the entire campaign. Almost all the key opponents of the Prime Minister, including the leaders of the parties that entered parliament, were under criminal prosecution or various restrictions. Pashinyan himself had previously stated that his opponents "should be in prison until 2031."
Three opposition leaders, Robert Kocharyan, Samvel Karapetyan and Gagik Tsarukyan, were banned from leaving the country. Moreover, they found out about it only when they tried to go abroad. A large-scale tax evasion case was also opened against Tsarukyan. According to this article, the politician faces from four to eight years in prison.
Gagik Tsarukyan
As a result, Pashinyan takes a frankly ambivalent position. On the one hand, he talks about democracy, reforms, and an "institutional world." On the other hand, he directly threatens political opponents and actually justifies their persecution. "Don't pack your bags in a hurry. I said this during the election campaign: you will dream of the opportunity to escape from Armenia, but you will not have it," he said.
The new course
A significant part of Pashinyan's election promises was related to the pro-European future of Armenia. Western politicians also came to support the prime minister: the first summit of the European Political Community was held in the republic, and American Secretary of State Marco Rubio also visited the country. The visits were accompanied by the signing of memoranda and declarations, and Pashinyan himself promised voters that in a few years he would achieve the abolition of the visa regime with the EU.
This course has long been reflected in relations with Moscow. Yerevan has effectively frozen its participation in the CSTO, periodically returns to talks about the Russian base in Gyumri and reduces the Russian presence on the Armenian borders. All this looks like a gradual abandonment of previous obligations to the Russian Federation.
At the same time, Armenia remains a member of the EAEU, and plans for rapprochement with the European Union contradict the very logic of Eurasian integration. "By definition, it is impossible to be in two unions at the same time. As they say, Armenia will not be able to dance at two weddings at the same time," emphasized Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin.
The leaders of the EAEU countries have already proposed to Yerevan to hold a referendum so that citizens can decide for themselves which integration association the country should remain in. However, Pashinyan made it clear that he intends to continue using this duality to his advantage: to maintain preferential terms within the EAEU and at the same time receive political and economic benefits from rapprochement with the EU.
"Armenia cannot be deprived of the status of a member of the Eurasian Economic Union. All decisions in the EAEU are made by consensus, and the Republic of Armenia, therefore, has the same right of veto as all member states," he said.
At the same time, Pashinyan seems to understand that a sharp escalation with Moscow could hit Yerevan itself. Therefore, after the election, he tried to soften the rhetoric against Russia. In particular, the prime minister noted that he was ready to come to Moscow if he received an appropriate invitation. But this is more of a tactical gesture than a sign of a course revision.
His caution is primarily explained by economic motives. Last year, the trade turnover between Russia and Armenia amounted to about $6.4 billion. Russia remains one of the republic's key trading partners and the largest market for Armenian agricultural products.
For comparison, Armenia's trade turnover with all EU countries in 2025 amounted to about $2.5 billion. This figure increased by 7%, but it is obvious that the European direction is unlikely to be able to replace the Russian one.
What the experts say
Konstantin Zatulin, first deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, in an interview with Izvestia, called the results of the elections in Armenia "defiant" due to the scale of abuses, the use of administrative resources, threats and repression.
Regionally, according to him, Pashinyan's course carries additional risks for Armenia. The West's interest in the republic is utilitarian in nature and is linked to the struggle over Iran. He also points out that the significance of the memorandum between the United States and Iran should not be overestimated, since Israel's goals have remained the same. Yerevan is convenient in this situation due to its geographical location: Armenia can create additional threats in the Iranian direction.
— Pashinyan actually makes the fate of the Armenian people dependent not on France, which he may be dreaming of, and not on Great Britain, but on Turkey and Azerbaijan. And this is not accidental after all that he did or did not do in connection with Nagorno-Karabakh. He just passed it," Zatulin concluded.
Hayk Khalatyan, head of the Analytical Center for Strategic Studies and Initiatives, added that Pashinyan intends to "defeat" his opponents. According to him, the prime minister is not deterred even by the fact that the opposition forces together won almost 40% of the vote.
— Pashinyan does not intend to smooth out the internal political tension. On the contrary, in fact, he believes that defeating competing forces will allow him to consolidate his power. But such plans are unlikely to lead to the desired result. If he really had the support of at least half of the voters, he would not have had to resort to such gross violations, repression and restrictions against opponents," the expert pointed out.
Political analyst Natalia Ermina also warned that the internal political crisis after the elections would not be resolved. According to her, Pashinyan's majority is not overwhelming, so any decisions of the authorities may be perceived by a part of society as not entirely legitimate. This will provoke a new wave of confrontation and further pressure on the opposition.
— The situation in Armenia is very complicated and is constantly escalating. The opposition will grow, and with it, apparently, the persecution of this opposition will increase," she concluded.
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