Profit forecast: what Oreshkin, Reshetnikov and Siluanov argued about at the SPIEF
The second day of SPIEF 2026 opened with a discussion on how to keep the economy going during a period of global uncertainty: Deputy head of the Presidential Administration Maxim Oreshkin, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov and Head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov argued over whether to change the growth model and what to rely on - internal reserves or faster mitigation. Session moderator Andrey Makarov reproached the Ministry of Energy for excessive pessimism, recalling that even Europe gives more optimistic forecasts for growth in the Russian Federation. Other forum participants talked about the "economy of cunning Tatars", national approaches and the creation of a "millionaires club" to support the birth rate. What important agreements were signed at the SPIEF and what attracted the participants to the stands - in the Izvestia article.
Statements by the main speakers at the SPIEF
The second day of the SPIEF 2026 business program took place in St. Petersburg on June 4. The tone of the whole event was set by the morning session, which was traditionally attended by top officials of the country.
Moderator of the session, Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxes Andrey Makarov asked the speakers to assess the prospects of the Russian economy in the context of global turbulence. The participants of the session communicated openly, meaningfully and at the same time with a touch of irony.
— The world that was here 20 years ago, it no longer exists, it will never be. The world is different," said Maxim Oreshkin, deputy head of the presidential administration.
According to him, it is not worth counting on the lifting of Western sanctions and the return of the former world order: the changes that are taking place are fundamental. Russian business needs to move away from the "defensive" model and shift the balance towards the "attack".
The deputy Head of the presidential administration noted that Western economies are going through a period of "shaking and fever." While the BRICS countries currently account for about half of global economic growth, the G7 countries account for less than 20%. At the same time, he recalled that over the past three years, Russia's GDP has increased by more than 10%, and unemployment is at a record low. The growth was driven by the defense sector and the development of digital platforms, with investments growing by more than 30% in a few years.
— Despite all the difficulties, from a financial point of view, it seems to me that we have reached an absolutely sovereign position. Namely, we are independent of the decisions of third countries," said Finance Minister Anton Siluanov.
He clarified that Russia's external debt is only 10% of GDP, and the authorities plan to fully repay it in the near future. What is happening today is not a crisis, but a normal change of phases of the economic cycle, Siluanov stressed.
This approach is not shared by all experts. According to Denis Astafyev, the fund's manager and founder of SharesPro, the phrase "cycle phase change" is convenient from a political point of view, but it does not answer the question of whether there are structural constraints to growth. The decline in investment makes the current situation more serious than the usual cyclical cooling of the economy, added Sergey Zaversky, head of the Analytical Research Department at ICSI.
In addition, the Finance Minister acknowledged that the current ruble exchange rate cannot be called comfortable for exporters. In his opinion, adjusting the budget rule to lower the cut-off price could increase predictability and even out the situation in the foreign exchange market. This mechanism helps the state to direct additional revenues to the NWF when the base oil price is exceeded.
"We are constantly being shied away"
Anton Siluanov also recalled that the funds of the National Welfare Fund were used as a tool for financing major projects and investments in the economy — about 4 trillion rubles over several years. Moderator Andrey Makarov asked the Finance Minister if the safety margin had become too fragile: "And if we get hit, do we have financial reserves?"
— We are constantly being shied away, Andrey Mikhailovich. And it seems to me that we have already developed a certain antidote to this," Siluanov retorted.
Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Anton Siluanov
The minister explained that the NWF was created for this purpose: in fat years it is accumulated, and when required— it is used. Moreover, the funds from the "pot" go not only to support the budget, but also to infrastructural and technological development.
— Now the situation is a little better, we will accumulate and restore, — concluded Siluanov, adding that the margin of safety is not only finances, but also people and technological capabilities.
But there was a small altercation between the head of the Ministry of Finance and the moderator.
— It's scary when the finance minister says that the economy is not finance, — complained Makarov.
"You're making it up. I said it wasn't just finance," Siluanov replied immediately.
After that, the head of the State Duma budget Committee said that the minister allegedly showed the audience a fist.
Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov focused on the constraints for further development. He called the labor market the main problem. And he outlined the contours of the future economic model: adaptation to a stronger ruble and higher interest rates than in previous years, while constantly adjusting economic policy to changing conditions.
Separately, Reshetnikov actually questioned Rosstat's data on a 14% drop in fixed asset investment in the first quarter and called for additional analysis of the statistics.
During the discussion, Andrei Makarov asked the minister a provocative question, pointing out that even Europe gives more optimistic forecasts than the Russian Ministry of Energy.
— I don't really understand, do you believe in economics less than our enemies? — the moderator asked.
Reshetnikov answered laconically and harshly:
— We rely on numbers.
Experts note that the discrepancy in forecasts is primarily due to differences in access to information. According to Anastasia Gorelkina, Chairman of the Board of Directors of HC Siberian Business Union, external institutions work mainly with trade flows and indirect indicators, while the Ministry of Energy has a detailed picture of capacity utilization, investments and regional dynamics. Therefore, the agency's more conservative forecast may reflect an internal assessment of the situation, rather than excessive pessimism.
Reshetnikov also said that the Ministry of Economic Development sees room for a faster reduction in the key rate. At the same time, he stressed that the agency is working in coordination with the Central Bank. However, even with a consistent reduction in the rate, a noticeable effect for businesses and the public will appear only in the first half of 2027 - the authorities do not expect a rapid recovery in investment activity.
Many market participants agree with this assessment. According to Dmitry Tselishchev, managing director of IC Rikom-Trust, expensive money and a high fiscal burden are already limiting business opportunities for development, and too slow a rate cut can lead to an increase in the number of business closures and a slowdown in economic growth.
Even after the key reduction, the cost of loans for businesses does not decrease quickly, as banks continue to take into account increased risks, Denis Astafyev added. Therefore, the tangible effect of monetary policy easing may indeed appear only in 2027.
Mega installations, technological breakthrough and new engineers
On the second day of the forum, its participants discussed not only macroeconomics and monetary policy. One of the most unusual discussions was the session "Religion and Economics", at which the head of the Spiritual Administration of Muslims of the Russian Federation Albir Krganov proposed to develop textbooks on economic practices of the peoples of Russia. In his opinion, the country has a unique experience in farming, which remains underestimated today.
As an example, the mufti cited, as he himself put it, the economy of the "cunning Tatars" and the traditional economic models of other nations, noting that Russian approaches can become an alternative to Western schools.
The demographic agenda was also given considerable attention at the forum. Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matvienko has taken the initiative to create a kind of "millionaires club" of companies that pay employees 1 million rubles each at the birth of a child. According to her, more than a hundred enterprises in Russia already use this practice, and thanks to Vladimir Putin's decisions, such corporate payments are exempt from personal income tax.
At the session "Mega Installations: the new physics of international cooperation", the participants discussed the development of the infrastructure of megascience class installations. These are super-powerful scientific complexes, including particle accelerators and nuclear reactors, which allow you to explore the world at the micro level and create new materials and technologies. According to Mikhail Kovalchuk, President of the Kurchatov Institute National Research Center, Russia has historically been one of the leaders of the elite club of countries capable of creating and operating such mega—installations.
— The basic principles of these machines and their designs have been developed by Russian scientists. And today, our country is a donor for many international projects in this area," he stressed.
In particular, a network of mega-science facilities is being created in Russia, which has no analogues in the world, the scientist said. It is based on an advanced fourth generation infrastructure. These include the PIK research reactor in Gatchina (100 MW), the SKIF accelerator complexes in Novosibirsk, SILA in Protvino, KISI-Kurchatov in Moscow and RIF in Vladivostok. A synchrotron is also being restored in Zelenograd for the needs of the microelectronic industry.
At the same time, a cluster of mega-installations of nuclear medicine is being developed. Such centers are the "embryos" of a new science based on nature—like principles. They are aimed at studying and reproducing wildlife systems, Mikhail Kovalchuk noted.
— Mega—installations are "locomotives". They lead science and people, and ensure Russia's technological leadership. Megascience facilities also connect the scientific environment of the country into a single whole. They combine research projects and bring them to a qualitatively new level," said Yulia Dyakova, Director of the Kurchatov Institute Research Center.
In particular, such technologies make it possible to study living organisms at the level of protein molecules, develop fundamentally new medicines, and ensure food and biosafety, she added.
At the same time, the forum also discussed which personnel and institutions will provide a technological breakthrough. Elena Shmeleva, Head of the Talent and Success Educational Foundation, Chairman of the Council of the Sirius Federal Territory, noted that life sciences are becoming one of the key priorities and require building a new model for training specialists, from early education to integration into clinical practice. According to her, the future system should combine education and real-life work in science and medicine, forming a generation of specialists capable of simultaneously creating and applying innovations.
The participants of the discussions focused on engineering education and technological professions. Innopraktika CEO Katerina Tikhonova emphasized that engineering specialties will become truly prestigious only when an engineer finds himself at the center of a working system - from a scientific idea to an industrial product. In her opinion, it is through the combination of education, science and production that it is possible to ensure a steady flow of personnel for high-tech industries.
What was shown at the SPIEF stands
In addition to interesting discussions and significant deals, the space of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum was again surprised by the variety of stands and projects. So, here you can meet robots in different costumes walking between people.
If you turn into one of the pavilions in the center, you will immediately be attracted by a huge painting of flowers. The Uralchem Group's stand depicts a swimmer twice as tall as a man, and the painting is entirely composed of carnations and orchids. It is dedicated to the organization's joint projects with the Russian Federation of Water Sports. The concept is called "The Art of Water".
In the same pavilion, Alfa-Bank's art object is located in the form of a white facade of a Greek temple with columns and dopamine images peeking out of it - from a smiley face with heart eyes to a coin with a lion and a large suitcase. I explain it on the stand: This is how the bank visualized the idea of fantech. This is the next stage of development, when technology works not only for speed and convenience, but also for emotions. Services become part of the client's habits and interests.
Opposite is the Dom.RF booth. There you will find a large pink classical-style house with a landscaped balcony. And moving silhouettes of people appear in the windows. If you go a little further, you will see the blue VTB space dedicated to Russian poets and writers. The stand is decorated in the form of huge classical heads in sunglasses. Among them are Alexander Pushkin, Nikolai Gogol, Fyodor Dostoevsky and Leo Tolstoy. The installations are amazing in scale.
"Nikolai Gogol's nose is taller than a human, and the weight of each sculpture exceeds 500 kg," the VTB press service said.
In the center of Pavilion F, the Rosatom State Corporation's space, decorated based on Russian folk tales, attracts attention. In the middle is a sprawling tree with orange lanterns in the branches, symbolizing "rejuvenating apples", and on the sides are images of firebirds and fairy tale characters. The main idea is "longevity", that is, prolonging life and rejuvenation. An ornament, a stylized version of the quantum mechanical model of the atom, stretched across the stand.
What important agreements were signed at the forum
The signing of major agreements continued at the forum on June 4. Bank ROSSIYA has concluded a series of agreements with the heads of the regions — Alexander Beglov, Governor of St. Petersburg, Alexander Drozdenko, head of the Leningrad Region, as well as with representatives of Tatarstan, Sevastopol and the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Crimea. In addition, meetings were held with the heads of the LPR Leonid Pasechnik and the DPR Denis Pushilin, as well as the Governor of the Kaluga region Vladislav Shapsha.
In addition, Bank ROSSIYA will develop a single payment document based on the Smorodina software under an agreement with the Republic of Abkhazia. Agreements were also signed with Rossiya Airlines, RusHydro and RT-RB.
Among the most notable deals of the day was an agreement on the construction of a large data processing center in the DPR, as well as a number of investment projects in industry, infrastructure and logistics, which the regions estimated at tens of billions of rubles. The Forum has traditionally remained a platform for concluding major agreements between businesses, regions, and federal agencies.
VTB has agreed to finance the construction of a 500-rack data processing center (DPC) in the DPR at SPIEF 2026. The data center is scheduled to be put into operation in 2030, and the investment volume is estimated at 20 billion rubles. The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and ON Media Holding (MTS) have signed an agreement on the development of the film industry in the region, and NSPK and messenger Max have agreed to create a contactless payment service. Special attention at the forum was drawn to the agreement between the Academician Dedov National Medical Research Center for Endocrinology of the Russian Ministry of Health and Promomed Company on conducting a large-scale study of the biological age and metabolic health of Russians.
On the second day of SPIEF 2026, the status of the country's main business platform was once again confirmed, where an economic agenda is being formed, landmark agreements are being concluded and long-term directions for Russia's development are being discussed. At the same time, the forum traditionally remains not only a place for serious discussions and negotiations, but also a space for the presentation of major projects, technological solutions and ideas that will further influence the development of individual industries and the economy of the country as a whole.
Anatoly Tseyko, Evgeny Grachev, Maria Kolobova and Andrey Korshunov worked on the material.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
