"More than half of the world is our potential market"
Russian small businesses are ready to expand far beyond the CIS and Asia — more than half of the world's countries may become potential markets for domestic exporters. Alexander Kalinin, President of Opora Russia, told about this at the SPIEF. But so far, according to him, entrepreneurs are not fighting for expansion, but rather for survival: a strong ruble is hitting exporters, banks are increasingly refusing loans, and the burden on companies is growing. Why small businesses close, how the state does not lose entrepreneurs, and whether inactive self—employed people can be excluded from the register - in an exclusive interview with Alexander Kalinin to Izvestia.
"At the beginning of the year, banks refused more than half of loan applications to small businesses"
— According to some analysts, we are on the verge of recession, and recently the president even held a meeting and instructed to develop measures to stimulate economic activity. How would you describe the economic situation?
— From the point of view of economic theory, a recession is fixed when the economy falls for two consecutive quarters. In the first three months, the decrease was 0.2%. Now we need to wait for the results of the second quarter — if it turns out to be in the red, then we can already talk about a recession. However, some are afraid to even discuss this topic. But it is worth remembering that the economy has already passed through such periods and, on the whole, successfully overcame them. This was the case in 2022 after the introduction of serious sanctions against our country, during the pandemic, as well as in 2015 and 2008.
Whether there will be a recession or not will become clear in July. If this happens, we will need to make different decisions than during the period of economic growth — we have such experience.
— What do you think the economic growth will be? What will support it, and what, on the contrary, will slow it down?
— Economic growth is usually associated with investments. When companies and citizens save less and spend more on development, the economy grows.
And there are disturbing trends here. We recently conducted a survey of Opora Russia, which was attended by about 6 thousand companies, mainly representatives of micro and small businesses. According to its results, 80% of respondents stated that they are not considering such an opportunity this year simply because there is nothing to make a profit from, profits have plummeted, borrowed money remains very expensive. At the beginning of the year, banks refused more than half of loan applications to small businesses. They believe that the risks of non-repayment of funds have increased.
"The average life span of startups in Russia is only three to four years"
— How can companies survive in the current conditions?
"You're right.: Today, the issue of survival for small businesses is the main one. After all, about 20% of entrepreneurs allow their business to be closed. However, 80% are still going to survive by keeping the business. The most alarming trend is that last year, the profitability of SMEs fell significantly. There are several reasons. First, there is a decrease in demand: both consumers and companies began to buy less as part of purchases. Secondly, the costs have increased. The cost of servicing loans has increased significantly, and labor costs have increased.
In addition, the fiscal burden has increased. VAT was introduced for companies with revenues from 20 million to 60 million rubles, while insurance premium benefits were abolished for many industries. Tax preferences have also been reduced in a number of regions. Tariffs of natural monopolies and housing and communal services have increased significantly, logistics has become more expensive, and fines have increased.
It turns out that demand has decreased and costs have increased. And where can I make a profit in order to develop? Many companies simply don't have it. Therefore, one of the key questions of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum is what resources business can use to return to the growth trajectory if the sources of development have actually shrunk today. At the same time, not only for small businesses, but also for large businesses.
— Speaking of the burden on the business, you have listed many factors. This can also include the still high key rate (14.5%) and tax changes. What can you suggest in this situation? How can I help the business?
— First of all, business needs to be conducted professionally today. According to our estimates, the average life span of startups in Russia is only three to four years. This is largely due to the fact that many people start their business without sufficient training. Entrepreneurial education was largely formed 30 years ago, in the early 1990s. Many of the programs that train future businessmen today are already outdated. The specialties related to economics, management and entrepreneurship need serious updating.
At first glance, this is not directly related to the current economic situation. If an entrepreneur had a different outlook today — since he was a student — he would find new opportunities easier. The global changes that are taking place in the world are behind many of the problems of small businesses.
One example is the platform economy that we are all switching to. This should be a competitive market, and it is important that we have, for example, not two large platforms in marketplaces, but at least seven. After all, such a large number of players is already a competitive market.
Another important area is to increase labor productivity. Today, an entrepreneur first of all needs to assess how effectively labor resources are used at the enterprise. If revenue per employee remains low, then the first reserve for growth is not to run to the bank for loans, but to make sure that revenue per person is higher.
— In addition to the growing fiscal burden, natural disasters also pose a threat to businesses. Earlier you wrote a letter about the flood in Dagestan and Chechnya. Do you think the measures that the authorities have already introduced are enough?
— When the flood began, our regional branch of Opora Russia was one of the first to start working in the affected territories. On April 1, we sent an appropriate appeal to the Government with a request to consider additional support measures, including from the government's reserve fund.
Assistance to the affected people is already underway. However, business has its own specifics — crops and machinery are being lost. And an entrepreneur, as a rule, is also credited. Therefore, we asked not only to provide some kind of immediate support, but also to consider the issues of credit holidays, tax holidays and, possibly, even debt cancellation for SMEs.
"Excessive strengthening of the ruble may limit our exports"
— In February, there was a new round of conflict in the Middle East. How did this affect the Russian market — perhaps there were problems in logistics and supplies? How much have prices increased?
— Oil and gas revenues influence the formation of the budget. If two years ago they amounted to about 11 trillion rubles, then last year they amounted to 8.5 trillion rubles. In particular, this is one of the situations that has provoked, among other things, an increase in the tax burden on microbusiness.
Now the increase in oil and gas prices provides the budget with additional revenues, which is a plus. However, everyone understands that this situation cannot last long. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the processing of raw materials within the country, but investments are needed for this.
In the current conditions, government support also plays an important role. If we talk about the consequences of the Middle East crisis, the risks of foreign economic activity have increased significantly for small exporters and importers. Therefore, in our opinion, it is necessary to expand the mechanisms of export risk insurance. Without this, it becomes much more difficult to conduct full-fledged foreign economic activity.
In addition, logistics has become more expensive and delivery times have increased. At the same time, there are practically no logistical subsidies. Therefore, the transportation support program needs to be expanded and funded additionally.
The more expensive oil and gas are sold, the stronger the ruble. Exporters receive more foreign exchange earnings and sell it to receive rubles. This led to an additional strengthening of the ruble, which was in May.
— Are there any positive consequences of the Middle East conflict?
— This is a plus for the budget. However, the question is how strong it should be. Excessive strengthening of the ruble may limit our exports. In addition, the rising costs of conducting foreign economic activity also negatively affects competitiveness.
"There are about 67,000 exporting companies now, and the vast majority of them are small businesses."
— How do you assess the state of export potential of small and medium-sized enterprises? Which countries are the most popular and what support measures are needed to expand this potential?
— The number of exporters among small businesses has increased significantly. Currently, there are about 67,000 exporting companies, and the vast majority of them are small businesses.
At the same time, it has become more difficult to conduct export activities today for a number of reasons. Firstly, it is the strengthening of the ruble: in some cases, it eats up margins, so there is no point in exporting. Secondly, costs continue to rise, primarily logistical and time-related. In addition, the sanctions remain in place.
An additional factor was the reduction of state support measures. In such circumstances, a weaker ruble is needed, as well as a reduction in the key rate, because the exporter is also being credited. In addition, if there is no insurance coverage, then the risks are too high.
— And to which countries are they mainly exported now?
— The main market is, first of all, the CIS. However, marginality is minimal in this area, as the participants know each other well. Next are China, the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, and Africa. India is also starting to take an interest in our products. More than half of the world is our potential market.
But any new country requires serious marketing budgets. Small businesses are not always ready for such expenses, so export activities are more often the task of more mature companies.
In this regard, it is important to preserve the achievements that were achieved in 2019-2025. Because there are big risks that small businesses will start to shrink. Thus, turnover on SME accounts in the first quarter fell by 16%, profitability — by 5%.
In this case, the regulator needs to change something together with the authorities. To find new sources of economic reboot and investment activity.
"The workload of a small business is 1.5 times higher than that of a large one"
— Now the government has taken a course to whitewash the economy. What other measures do you think the authorities might take regarding this course?
— Steps in this direction were announced at a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister and Head of the government Staff Dmitry Grigorenko. In particular, the system for confirming the import of goods through Kazakhstan and Belarus began operating on June 1. That is, now goods that come from the EAEU countries (besides the Russian Federation, it includes Armenia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan) need to get a QR code at the border for the importing truck.
For small businesses, this also means the introduction of a security payment — without making it, the goods will not be able to enter the territory of Russia. This measure is aimed at combating gray schemes, fictitious transit and smuggling, but at the same time creates additional financial costs.
The concerns of the business, which were sent to the government office, have been largely eliminated. At the same time, the mandatory security payment was postponed until July 1, and for transactions with Belarus — approximately until November 1. There is still time to test the system.
In addition, electronic waybills should be available starting from September 1. No transportation can be carried out outside of this digital system. There is still testing to be done, but the system will affect about 120,000 carriers across the country, not counting the self-employed. There are still serious risks that, if there is insufficient readiness, this can lead to disruptions in logistics, including transport collapses.
Also, if we talk about whitewashing, it is proposed to give the Federal Tax Service additional control over the transfer of money between citizens. If the transactions have signs of entrepreneurial activity, the tax service will come with an audit.
— How does the business feel with all the measures introduced? And isn't there a risk that some companies will go into the shadows?
— There is always such a risk. When the tax burden becomes excessive, some entrepreneurs go into gray schemes. That is why business associations have appealed to the government and the presidential administration with a proposal not to lower the VAT threshold for the simplified system below 20 million rubles.
Because the microbusiness simply does not have the income to simultaneously pay VAT at the rate of 5%, tax under the simplified system and increased insurance premiums. As a result, in the worst case, the cumulative load can reach about 11% of turnover, while large businesses pay about 7% of turnover.
In other words, the workload of a small business is 1.5 times higher than that of a large one. This immediately pushes you into a gray area. And we are concerned about such plans, and we hope that they will be reviewed.
"There are a lot of false self—employed - almost half of the 16 million"
— Back at the end of 2025, Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matvienko pointed out the phenomenon of false self-employment. She called it a vicious practice when, for example, in a supermarket, sellers and cashiers have a direct employment relationship with an employer, but are registered as self-employed. In your opinion, are there many of them in Russia? How can we deal with this?
— There are two main points. False self—employed are citizens who have registered as self-employed, but actually do not conduct any activity. There are a lot of false self—employed - almost half of the 16 million. From a legal point of view, the Federal Tax Service has the opportunity to remove them from the registry so that there is a more truthful picture, but this is not being done.
The second issue is related to schematics. In most cases, this is not the story of a small business as such. The problem with the self-employed arises where there is a substitution of employment relations. There have already been cases of inspections when couriers work daily on a fixed schedule in the same company, but are formally registered as self-employed. The situation is similar for sorters at warehouses and pick—up points, as well as cashiers who actually perform the functions of full-time employees.
In these cases, we are no longer talking about flexible forms of employment, but about the substitution of labor relations. This should be the subject of verification, since such schemes create a risk of subsequent tax surcharges for businesses.
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