On the exchange rate and color: the ruble may weaken as early as June-July
The ruble, which strengthened on May 20 to record levels in three years, may weaken as early as June and July, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. They expect the conflict in the Middle East to end by the summer, leading to a gradual decline in commodity prices. Namely, expensive oil is now the main factor supporting the exchange rate. In addition, as early as June, the Ministry of Finance may multiply purchases of foreign currency according to the budget rule, and the Central Bank will continue to reduce the key rate — all this will play against the ruble. To what levels the exchange rate may drop and when it's time to buy dollars, see the Izvestia article.
Dollar below 70 rubles: will it fall or bounce
On May 20, the dollar exchange rate on Forex dropped below 70 rubles for the first time in two and a half years, starting on December 6, 2023. At a minimum, the US currency reached 69.9 rubles, after which it partially recovered the fall. The euro was currently declining to 81.8 rubles, the yuan to 10.3 rubles.
The national currency began to strengthen sharply in March. As a result, in the second quarter, according to Bloomberg, the ruble became the strongest monetary unit in the world against the dollar.
The main reason for its stabilization is the high commodity prices that have developed due to the war in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, said Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst at Sovcombank. If in January and February the cost of Russian Urals export oil was slightly above $40 per barrel, then in March it rose to $77, in April - to $ 95. In May, the Urals price was about $90 per barrel. This increased foreign exchange export earnings are coming right now, with a lag of one and a half to two months, meaning that the supply of foreign money inside the country is high.
The ruble is also supported by a high key rate: it is more profitable for both citizens and companies to keep money in national currency than in foreign currency, therefore, the demand for ruble instruments is higher. In addition, at the end of May, as at the end of any month, the tax period acts as an additional driver: companies that receive income in foreign currency exchange it for rubles on the domestic market in order to pay fees.
At the same time, the volume of currency purchases under the budget rule turned out to be insufficient to normalize the market balance, said Bogdan Zvarich, Head of Banking and Financial Market Analysis at PSB.
— Strengthening takes place according to an inertial scenario. We have been living in a strong ruble for more than 12 months now. As a result, exporters are forced to convert even more foreign currency earnings to pay taxes. This creates an oversupply of currency and prevents the ruble from weakening," concluded independent expert Andrey Barkhota.
What will be the course in 2026
According to Bogdan Zvarich, the prerequisites for strengthening the ruble remain until the end of May. Under these conditions, it is possible for the yuan to steadily fall below 10 rubles and the dollar below 70 rubles.
However, according to experts interviewed by Izvestia, the dynamics of the foreign exchange market may change as early as June. The fact is that a significant increase in the volume of currency purchases is predicted within the framework of the budget rule — from the current 1.2 billion per day to more than 10 billion, says Maxim Petronevich, head of the Center for Macroeconomic and regional analysis and forecasting at the Rosselkhoznadzor.
The mechanism designed to stabilize the national currency works like this: if raw materials are sold at a higher price than a certain cut—off price, which causes more foreign currency to enter the domestic market, the authorities buy funds into reserves (and if oil is cheaper than this bar, they sell the currency from the bins). Purchase volumes are set every month.
In addition, a further reduction in the key rate is expected in the near future, which is currently at 14.5%, said Vladimir Evstifeev, head of Zenit Bank's analytical department. And the demand for foreign currency from the population, primarily tourists planning trips abroad, is traditionally growing in summer. All this will play against the national currency.
The further movement of the ruble will largely depend on the duration of the war in the Middle East — the longer the Strait of Hormuz is closed and the higher the prices of oil, gas and other raw materials, the stronger the ruble, said Mikhail Vasiliev from Sovcombank. According to his analysts, the conflict will end in the summer.
— Therefore, we expect lower oil prices in the fall and by the end of the year. In our forecasts for the fourth quarter, we have included the average Urals price at $60 per barrel," he said.
By the end of 2026, according to the expert, the ruble will weaken, but only slightly: according to experts, the national currency will trade at 78-80 rubles per dollar, 11.6–11.9 per yuan, 93-95 per euro.
Is a strong ruble beneficial for Russians
The stabilization of the Russian currency is directly related to budget revenues: the more profitable the exchange rate, the less exporters earn in ruble terms and the less taxes they pay. According to estimates by Vladimir Evstifeev from Zenit, a 1% deviation of the dollar exchange rate from the budgeted figures leads to a change in the balance of the state treasury by 110 billion rubles.
— This year, the dollar exchange rate in the budget law is set at 92 rubles (later revised as 81.5, but without changing budget figures). Thus, the strengthening of the ruble to the level of 70 per dollar deprives the treasury of nominal revenues of up to 2.5 trillion rubles per year. Taking into account the average dollar exchange rate of 77.5 since the beginning of the year, the budget only receives about 1.6 trillion rubles of revenue due to the difference in the actual exchange rate over the planned one," the analyst estimated.
However, this shortfall will be offset by high oil prices. As Izvestia previously reported, this year, due to the conflict in the Middle East, excess oil revenues may bring an additional 2 trillion rubles. So analysts do not see any significant problems for the budget due to the strong national currency.
At the same time, the strengthening of the ruble helps to slow down inflation: imported goods are becoming more affordable, said Mikhail Vasiliev from Sovcombank. This allows the Central Bank to reduce the key rate. As a result, credit resources will become more accessible to citizens, businesses and the state, and the economy will grow again.
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