Straight ahead: why the government prefers a weak ruble
The Ministry of Economic Development has allowed the ruble to remain strong in the coming years, which will become a structural challenge for the economy. This was stated by the head of the department Maxim Reshetnikov. However, we are not talking about the fact that the exchange rate of the domestic currency will always be around 70 rubles per dollar, experts warn. It just might be stronger than the levels the market has become accustomed to in recent years. At the same time, in the near future, the exchange rate may be affected by the early resumption of operations with foreign currency under the budget rule, which was allowed by Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. Why a strong ruble is not always beneficial for the state and business — in the Izvestia article.
The dual effect
In the coming years, the ruble exchange rate will remain quite strong. This was stated by Maxim Reshetnikov, Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, speaking at the Moscow Stock Exchange Forum. Such a situation, he said, would be "a major structural challenge for the economy" and would require flexibility in institutions.
"It is unclear what will happen next with the exchange rate, whether we will return to the old model. We will have a stronger course in the coming years than many would like," the head of the department warned.
The national currency of the Russian Federation has remained strong for months. In December 2025, the American Bloomberg agency reported that since the beginning of the year, the ruble has strengthened by 45%, becoming one of the five most profitable global assets by spot yield. The trend continued in 2026, which was facilitated by an increase in oil prices due to the energy crisis in the Middle East.
The question of whether a strong or weak ruble is better for the Russian economy is debatable. The concept of an "equilibrium" exchange rate of the domestic currency is different for each sector of the economy. Exporters are comfortable with the rate of 85-95 rubles per dollar (even higher for some industries), says investment adviser to the registry of the Central Bank, founder of the online investment university "Financology" Yulia Kuznetsova.
A weakening of the domestic currency is preferable for them for two reasons. Firstly, for the same amount of foreign currency, exporters will receive more rubles. Secondly, while maintaining the same revenue in the national currency and covering costs, the goods can be sold on the foreign market at a lower price, which facilitates trade.
A strong ruble is also not beneficial to the Russian budget, which to a certain extent still remains a raw material source. The authorities are consistently working to reduce dependence on raw materials, but the share of oil and gas revenues is still significant — in 2025, according to the Ministry of Finance, it amounted to about 8.5 trillion rubles. With a strong ruble, a barrel of oil in ruble terms is cheaper than with a weak one. Therefore, for the budget, a rate of 90 + rubles per dollar is often more comfortable than a zone of 75 rubles, says Kuznetsova.
Importers have the opposite point of view on the comfortable ruble exchange rate. With a strong domestic currency, imported goods become cheaper, which makes it possible to redirect the released funds to business scaling and employee salaries. Among the main beneficiaries of a strong ruble are non-food retail, developers, IT companies, drug manufacturers, etc.
A weak ruble in the case of imports inevitably leads to an increase in the cost of goods. Even if the price in a foreign currency has not changed, it takes more rubles to purchase a specific position. And this growth is felt not only by companies buying imported equipment, but also by ordinary consumers.
In addition, with a strong ruble, inflationary pressure becomes less, which makes a strong currency more preferable for both the population and the Bank of Russia (which seeks to contain inflation).
— That is why there is always a conflict of interest around the course.: What is good for a citizen is not always good for the budget," Kuznetsova emphasizes.
The role of the rule
The budget rule plays an important role in the situation with the ruble exchange rate. Changes in the cost of oil make the domestic currency volatile — when the energy price is high, the country receives an excess of foreign currency, which strengthens the ruble, and vice versa. Such fluctuations were unprofitable for the state and business, and therefore the Ministry of Finance began to use the budget rule. This is a fiscal mechanism that limits government spending by separating it from high commodity prices.
Its essence lies in the fact that the Ministry of Finance fixes a certain level of resource cost — the cut-off price. This is the minimum threshold that determines exactly how much oil sales went to the budget. For 2026, the cut-off price for Urals crude oil is set at $59 per barrel. The excess funds are deposited in the National Welfare Fund (NWF). The accumulated reserve can be used if the oil price falls below the base to compensate for the lost income. This mechanism makes it possible to reduce the dependence of the ruble on commodity quotations.
It is important to take into account that the Ministry of Finance receives taxes from oil companies in rubles, and the money in the NWF is stored in foreign currency (now it is Chinese yuan). The Central Bank handles the conversion of funds by selling or buying currency on the Moscow Exchange, which balances the market.
At the moment, operations with foreign currency within the framework of the budget rule are suspended until July 1, 2026. The Ministry of Finance explained to Izvestia that the decision was made in connection with the planned changes in the parameter of the base oil price in order to increase the stability of public finances and strengthen the country's financial system.
The cut-off price, as noted earlier, is planned to be reduced due to a shortage of oil and gas revenues. However, this was discussed even before the surge in volatility in the commodity markets caused by the military conflict between the United States and Israel with Iran.
The resumption of foreign exchange transactions is likely to weaken the ruble. And this may not happen in July, as planned, but earlier. Anton Siluanov, Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation, admitted the possibility of an early resumption of operations at the Moscow Stock Exchange Forum. He said that the government would consider this issue in the near future.
At the same time, the minister noted that an adjustment to the base oil price is still necessary, since the levels determined after 2020 do not meet the current situation, and therefore the Ministry of Finance sees the need to tighten them.
The press service of the Ministry of Finance told Izvestia that the possibility of an early resumption of operations is being considered by the government against the background of a significant strengthening of the ruble caused by a sharp jump in oil prices on the world market due to the situation in the Middle East. In any case, the volume of transactions deferred since March will be taken into account in the transactions.
— For economics and fiscal policy, the predictability of the ruble exchange rate is primarily important, not its specific parameters. The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation strives to ensure the stability and predictability of the market for participants in foreign economic activity, as well as the execution of the federal budget under various scenarios.
The strong ruble exchange rate, which has begun to hit budget revenues, is an important, but not the only factor in the possible early resumption of operations, confirms Yulia Kuznetsova. An important role, in her opinion, was also played by the fact that high oil prices provide space for savings. In addition, the predictability of financial policy for several years ahead is important for the state.
— In other words, the Ministry of Finance is preparing in advance a mechanism that will allow not to manually extinguish problems every quarter, — emphasizes the interlocutor of Izvestia.
In the next three years, it is precisely how high the Ministry of Finance sets the oil price cutoff that will determine the behavior of the ruble, says Finam analyst Alexander Potavin. This will set the level of purchases and sales of the currency, which will affect the liquidity and demand for the currency from the regulator.
The path to balance
The ruble will continue to be strong as long as oil prices remain high and the domestic foreign exchange market is closed to capital outflows, Alexander Potavin believes.
"Since in May and June we can expect increased volumes of currency inflows to the domestic market after rising oil prices, the ruble will probably remain in force," the expert admits.
However, the return of operations under the budget rule earlier than scheduled will lead to a moderate weakening of the national currency, as part of the additional oil and gas revenues will once again be allocated to reserves, Yulia Kuznetsova expects. The demand for foreign currency will increase when operations with it resume, which will change the exchange rate.
— We are not talking about a sharp jump to 120 rubles per dollar, the state does not need such a scenario, since a weak ruble accelerates inflation. Rather, the task is to return the course to a more convenient corridor. In practice, this may mean moving from the 75-78 rubles zone to the 82-90 rubles area if oil prices are high and the rule is fully operational," explains the Izvestia interlocutor.
At the same time, the Central Bank's monetary policy easing may also have a moderately negative impact on the ruble. However, this impact will be noticeable only if the key rate is lowered to 12%, which, according to Alexander Potavin's forecast, will happen no earlier than at the end of the year.
In other words, the ruble may indeed remain relatively strong in the coming years, but this situation will not be constant and linear. We are not talking about an eternal exchange rate of 70 rubles per dollar, but that it may be stronger than the levels to which the market has become accustomed in recent years.
— The ruble cannot be strong indefinitely. With a reduction in the rate, an increase in imports, a drop in oil, or increased budget spending, the situation can quickly change. Therefore, a realistic scenario is not a super—strong ruble, but a range stability with fluctuations," summarizes Kuznetsova.
The editorial board of Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation. No response has been received at the time of publication.
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