And in our palace: luxury real estate sales collapsed in 2026

In 2026, the number of transactions in the primary luxury housing market in Moscow decreased by almost 40% compared to the same period last year, business representatives said. At the same time, the average cost per square meter sold was 1.5 million rubles, which is 13% higher than in 2025. Experts attribute the decline not only to the general economic situation, but also to the emergence of luxury housing on the market that does not meet the needs of buyers, as well as to a change in capital preservation strategy. About what else the trend is related to, see the Izvestia article.

The situation on the real estate market

Demand in the primary luxury housing market in 2026 decreased significantly compared to January – May of last year, the industry told Izvestia. On average — by 35-40%.

"The elite buyer abruptly took his foot off the gas," said Rigina Gordeeva, founder of the Bezfilter real estate agency. — At the same time, demand was abnormally high last year: people were parking capital in real estate, saving money from uncertainty, and purchasing "concrete currency." Now this first wave of capital has already entered the market in many ways, and new buyers have become much colder.

Analysts of the Kalinka ecosystem also confirmed the trend. According to their data, in the first four months of 2026, 495 lots were sold in Moscow's elite primary — 36% less than in the same period of 2025. At the same time, the weighted average transaction price increased by 13% and amounted to 1.55 million rubles per square meter.

"The cooling in demand was expected and is related, among other things, to the "high base" effect: In the first quarter of 2025, there was an atypically high activity caused by behavioral factors — the desire of buyers to save in hard currency after active sales at the end of the previous year," the analysts said.

Since the beginning of 2026, the number of equity participation agreements in the capital's new building market has decreased by 28% in the premium segment and by 53% in the high-budget segment, compared to the same period in 2025, said Anna Radjabova, director of the Metrium Premium Luxury Real Estate Management.

"The downward correction of consumer activity in annual terms is explained by changes in the tax burden in Russia, increased international tensions, a slowdown in monetary policy easing, and currency fluctuations," the expert believes. — At the same time, the maximum rate of customer outflow is recorded in the high-budget segment. Such new buildings are currently not suitable for investment, they are purchased mainly for their own living.

The total number of offers on the elite primary housing market has reached almost 4.5 thousand apartments and apartments. This figure increased by 14%. And the average price increased by 8% compared to 2025, to 2.2 million rubles per square meter.

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Developers increase the cost of projects moderately as they become ready. The competition is in the secondary sector, where prices are up to 30% lower than in facilities under construction, the analysts added.

According to Ekaterina Levina, a top broker at Whitewill, the luxury real estate market has become more complex and competitive, but demand remains.

— In recent years, many projects have been put into operation, and a significant part of the transactions have been recycled, — the expert explained. — Such sales are not taken into account in the primary market statistics, although consumer activity remains quite high. In addition, at the beginning of the year, the volume of supply in the deluxe and premium segments was limited. There were few new starts, so the choice for buyers has objectively decreased.

Why has the demand for luxury real estate dropped

The sharp decline in demand for expensive housing is caused by several factors at once, says Denis Zhalnin, CEO of the People development company.

— At the beginning of last year, there was high investment activity in this segment, and there were a lot of "surrogate" luxury housing on the market, which does not meet the real needs of buyers who are ready to invest in such real estate, — he said. — Over the past few years, the requirements have increased many times. Everything that was classified as luxury housing 5-10 years ago is now often inferior in terms of its characteristics to high-quality options in the comfort-plus segment.

The decrease in the number of transactions in the primary luxury housing market in January – April 2026 is due to its transition to a more selective phase: buyers have become more cautious, take longer to make decisions and choose only the highest quality properties, said the director, head of residential real estate CORE.XP Ekaterina Lomteva.

In addition, the market economy has changed, Ekaterina Levina noted. The cost of construction has increased significantly, which is also why the starting prices for new projects are at a high level.

"Previously, customers were motivated by relatively low prices at the start of sales and high pent—up demand, but now there is no such effect," the expert believes. — An additional factor was increased competition from the secondary sector, where high-quality facilities appeared, sometimes at more attractive prices.

The high key rate of the Central Bank, which reached 21% in 2024, although it does not hit the elite segment as much as the mass segment, it still has an impact, added Valery Tumin, director of Russian and CIS markets at Pham Properties.

— It is more difficult for developers to attract financing for new projects — loans are expensive, — he said. — Because of this, the cost of construction is increasing, and therefore the final price for buyers, who have also become more cautious. In conditions of sanctions, inflation and instability, many prefer not to rush into large investments.

The increase in the cost per square meter to 1.5 million rubles is explained by the rise in the cost of construction itself: materials, logistics, land, fulfillment of social obligations — all this affects the final price, the expert noted. In addition, there is almost no space left for new projects in the most prestigious areas — the shortage of sites keeps prices high.

By the end of 2025, about 1.8 thousand luxury apartments and apartments were sold in Moscow, and the total sales volume reached almost 350 billion rubles.

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What will happen to the luxury housing market

There is a paradoxical situation in the real estate market when, against the background of rising construction costs, developers are increasingly moving away from typical housing to more expensive segments, said Yulia Bocharnikova, executive director of the federal company Floors.

"If a couple of years ago such a trend was fully justified by the shortage of affordable supply in the comfort-plus and premium segments, now developers often make a choice in favor of one segment or another based on the economics of the project," she said. — As a result, the volume of supply in the elite sector is growing, and this is beginning to dilute its exclusivity for end customers. Demand is slowing down, sales deadlines are increasing, and with them, the risks of unsold sales.

However, the volume of supply of the elite real estate market will remain at a high level, analysts of the Kalinka ecosystem believe. If new supply is withdrawn and demand remains moderate, the volume may increase by another 5% in the first half of the year.

Activity is supported by a variety of projects that are interesting from the point of view of investment and capital preservation, as well as through investment potential and the provision of long installments. The share of such transactions tends to 80%, experts said.

However, cooling demand may lead to the fact that some developers will reconsider the concepts of future projects in favor of reducing class and increasing affordability, Yulia Bocharnikova believes.

— We should not expect a sharp reversal in demand in the luxury housing market yet, — she believes. — Firstly, the wave of investments in premium real estate took place in 2025, and demand has not yet accumulated. Secondly, the growth of average prices in this segment is losing out to bank deposits.

We can expect a gradual recovery in activity in the second half of 2026, but the total volume of transactions is likely to remain below last year's figures, Ekaterina Lomteva believes.

"Prices are likely to continue to rise at a moderate pace: high—quality projects will retain and index value, and weak or overvalued lots will be sold through individual conditions and hidden discounts," she said.

The reason for the reversal in demand will be not only a discount on supply, but also the coincidence of three factors: further reduction in mortgage rates, deposit fatigue and the appearance of really rare objects, experts believe.