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- They will set you up for the worst: developers have launched a record housing construction since the beginning of the year
They will set you up for the worst: developers have launched a record housing construction since the beginning of the year
Against the background of the crisis in the construction industry and a large volume of unsold real estate in the regions, developers have launched a record construction site of almost 6.6 million square meters since the beginning of the year. This is the maximum since 2020, and relative to 2025, the growth was 52%, according to a study by the Movement platform.ru" based on the data of the EISZHS. The Ministry of Construction confirmed this trend. Analysts cite the trend towards easing the Central Bank's credit policy and lowering the key interest rate as one of the main reasons for the market recovery. However, experts consider the developers' optimism to be excessive — it is premature to talk about the stabilization of the industry situation. Developers retort: the increase in the withdrawal of new projects in the first two months of the year is largely due to the postponement of some of them from 2025. What the current situation can lead to is in the Izvestia article.
Why are construction volumes increasing in an unfavorable economic situation
The largest primary real estate markets showed the most noticeable increase in the launch of new projects: Moscow Region — by 229%, Rostov Region — by 269%, Leningrad Region — by 119%, Perm Region — by 792%, Chelyabinsk Region — by 186%, Tula Region — by 386%, Udmurtia — by 388%. Such data is provided by analysts of the Movement platform.<url>" based on the information provided by the EISZHS (Izvestia has the document).
The growth also occurred in the cities of federal importance — in Moscow and St. Petersburg. In the capital, the volume of new project launches has increased by about a third: developers have begun construction of more than 0.5 million square meters. m housing. In St. Petersburg, the indicator increased by 10%.
Outside regions with large construction volumes (over 1 million square meters m) High launch activity was recorded in the LPR and the DPR. In January and February, construction of more than 100,000 square meters of housing began in each of the republics, and the total volume is already approaching 500,000 square meters, the study says.
If we consider the structure by housing class, the largest growth occurred in the elite segment (+486%). The launch of comfort class projects increased by 67%, business class — by 364%. The minimum dynamics was recorded in the segment of typical housing, where the growth was only 6%, analysts noted.
The intensification of construction took place against the background of unfavorable conditions for the industry. Among them is a decrease in demand under the preferential family mortgage program, the lack of significant incentives for growth in consumer activity, as well as price stagnation in the primary market amid an increase in construction costs, the document says. In addition, the authors of the report point to a decrease in the growth rate of household incomes and a cooling of the labor market.
An additional negative factor remains the imbalance between supply and demand: in half of the major regional markets, developers are building houses faster than they are selling. As Izvestia wrote, a decrease in the number of transactions was recorded in 33 regions, and in 10 million-plus cities up to half of the commissioned housing remains unsold.
The Novosibirsk Region (-21%), Tatarstan (-64%), Crimea (-48%), Voronezh Region (-74%), Krasnoyarsk Territory (-30%), Samara Region (-12%) and Khabarovsk Territory (-11%) were named among the regions that reduced the volume of new construction starts.
"The main hopes of developers are now linked to further easing of the Central Bank's monetary policy and lowering the key interest rate," the head of the Movement analytical center explained to Izvestia.<url>" by Yan Gravshin.
According to him, developers expect to maintain government support for the industry: the revision of old programs and the emergence of new ones, and a possible change in the credit policy of banks.
— The market is now trying to feed off optimism, which looks excessive, because in general there are obviously more negative signals for it than positive ones, — the analyst concludes.
The press service of the Ministry of Construction confirmed to Izvestia that developers remain highly active and continue to launch new projects. According to the ministry, 7.9 million square meters have already been launched since the beginning of the year, which is 1.5 times higher than in 2025. And the total portfolio of housing under construction is more than 118 million square meters, which is also higher than the same indicator last year.
In addition, they noted that 542 permits have already been issued for the construction of 5.6 million square meters of housing. This is a 30% increase in area compared to the same period in 2025, the ministry said, without assessing whether this could be regarded as a positive signal for the industry.
The editorial board also sent a request to the largest developers asking them to comment on the reasons for the volume increase.
Excessive optimism or a trend for development
Industry representatives assess the situation with the increase in housing volumes in different ways.
— It takes more time, at least six months, to understand the dynamics and some conclusions. In any case, it is worth remembering that a development project is a long process that cannot always be slowed down. Companies are often forced to put new buildings up for sale, even under difficult market conditions, as they already incur costs," Natalia Shatalina, CEO of the real estate aggregator Redcat, explained to Izvestia.
According to her, indeed, the data of the EISWS show that in the first two months of 2026, an increase in the number of new housing starts was recorded. At the same time, if developers continue to actively increase the withdrawal of projects, they may face an increase in the share of unsold balances.
— Of course, this may not happen, and the current growth will turn out to be a local event, as the dynamics of bringing new projects to market may smooth out by the end of the year. It is still premature to talk about the stabilization of the industry," the business representative believes.
According to Natalia Shatalina, developers are in a difficult situation: they are under pressure from declining demand (in the Moscow region, this figure fell by 30% in the first two months by 2025), rising construction prices, high rates on project financing and the need to invest in demand support programs — installments, discounts, subsidized rates.
— In general, the growth in the withdrawal of new projects in the first two months of the year looks logical. This is largely due to the fact that some projects were postponed in 2025: compared to 2023-2024, the volume of new supply was about 12% lower then. Accordingly, the projects that the developers have held onto are now entering the market," said Dmitry Khalin, CEO and Managing Partner of Intermark Urban Real Estate.
According to him, an additional factor is the easing of monetary policy: the Central Bank is signaling a possible reduction in the key rate. Under these conditions, companies are starting to focus not only on preferential programs, but also on market mortgages, which are expected to play a more significant role in sales of housing under construction in the second half of the year, the business representative explained.
— At the same time, there are currently no significant risks for developers. Even if we extrapolate the volume of new acreage in January–February for the whole year, we can expect about 40 million square meters. m of the new offer. This is comparable or slightly lower than the levels of 2023-2024, so there is no need to talk about a possible record — rather, the market is returning to its usual volumes," concluded Dmitry Khalin.
At the same time, he admits that the overall situation in the industry is far from ideal, but companies are gradually moving to a more market-based model of operation, including against the background of the curtailment of preferential mortgage programs.
— The increase in the volume of new supply is already holding back the growth in prices for new buildings, which has slowed down recently. It also has a positive effect on demand. Otherwise, with a sharp reduction in the launch of new projects, prices could continue to accelerate, which would ultimately reduce the number of transactions," the business representative noted.
The volume of unsold housing in Russia decreased by 3 percentage points year—on-year, from 47% to 44%, despite a slight decline in consumer activity, said Ruslan Syrtsov, Managing Director of Metrium. According to him, this trend is explained by a significant reduction in the number of new building starts in 2025. He considers the current trend this year to be absolutely justified.
— As the Central Bank's monetary policy eases, pent-up demand is expected to intensify. In the next year or two, market mortgages will become more affordable (according to the medium-term baseline forecast of the Bank of Russia). At the same time, the profitability of deposits will significantly decrease, the volume of savings on which has increased by 20 trillion rubles over the past two years to 65 trillion," the expert noted.
This, in his opinion, may lead to a large-scale reorientation of investors from bank deposits to other liquid assets, primarily primary real estate. In addition, more and more integrated territorial development (CDT) projects are being launched in Russia, implemented in the format of a public-private partnership. The implementation of such complexes is practically independent of market conditions, as the government subsidizes developers in exchange for fulfilling social obligations.
— Indeed, developers have brought many new projects to the market since the beginning of the year. How to evaluate it? There are several points here. Firstly, if you do not take out housing for a long time, the developer begins to understand that the market can expect new offers, and demand is formed in advance. Secondly, we should not forget that the fourth quarter of 2025 was more than good in terms of sales," explained Sergey Razuvaev, founder of GMK, co-founder of the Association of Real Estate Market Professionals REPA, to Izvestia.
According to him, because of this, developers might have formed the opinion that the market has changed dramatically. In addition, some projects had to be withdrawn due to commitments made. At the same time, developers who are increasing their volumes cannot be called reckless: each of them clearly understands the ratio of supply and demand in his company and forms a proposal that can really affect it.
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