Salary meter: one "square" in a new building will cost two average salaries

The cost per square meter in Russian new buildings reached a record 215 thousand rubles by the end of 2025, jumping by 21% over the year, Izvestia found out based on data from the Central Bank. With an increase in the average salary to 112.5 thousand rubles, now you need to pay almost two monthly incomes per meter in the primary market, whereas a year ago it was 1.77. Experts state that housing affordability in Russia is falling. According to this indicator, the country is inferior to Germany and the United States, although it surpasses China. How the situation may change in the future is in the Izvestia article.

Why is housing affordability falling in Russia

Over the year, the average price per square meter in the primary market jumped by 21%. According to the results of the fourth quarter of 2025, it reached a record 215 thousand rubles, according to the Central Bank. Recycling has also risen in price, but less significantly — the average price per meter has risen by 15%, to 130 thousand rubles.

Due to the high mortgage market rates (they were about 20% in mid-March), Russians are now mostly considering new buildings. They are subject to preferential programs. In 2025, the authorities also allowed the purchase of housing on the secondary market for the most massive of them — family mortgages. But this applies only to areas with extremely low levels of construction, where there are almost no new houses. Most of the cities covered by the relief are located in the DPR, LPR and Vologda region.

Every meter of housing on the primary market will cost Russians two average salaries. In the fourth quarter of 2025, it amounted to 112.6 thousand rubles, according to Rosstat data. It increased by 12% over the year, but the growth rate of real estate prices turned out to be higher.

This means that the availability of housing for citizens is decreasing, explained Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. At the end of 2024, to buy a meter in a new building, it was necessary to pay about 1.77 of the average salary, Izvestia calculated.

The increase in prices for new buildings in 2025 is primarily due to the structure of the mortgage market. With a high key rate, the demand for primary housing continued to be supported by preferential programs, explained Vladimir Chernov. With a rate of about 6%, the primary mortgage payment turns out to be many times lower than the market mortgage, even at a higher price per meter.

The cost of construction is increasing at a faster pace, the press service of the LSR Group reported. Therefore, they believe that apartments are unlikely to become cheaper in the foreseeable future.

The increase in prices for building materials is now reaching 20-23%, said Nikita Bakhcheev, Managing Partner of Promplan Group. But the cost of the facilities will not immediately increase as much. And some of the materials are not getting more expensive so quickly.

Another key factor in the increase in prices for new homes is the labor market: there is a shortage of personnel in construction, and high—level professionals demand decent pay. Salary growth is becoming a systemic phenomenon, and it is this phenomenon that, together with materials, forms a new price reality, Nikita Bakhcheev added.

The cost of business loans also affects the final price of the property, said Evgeny Shavnev, CEO of the Flip real estate investment company. Because of all this, a paradox arises: demand for new buildings in a number of cities has fallen by a third, and prices continue to rise, said Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets.

Apartment spread: the price of new buildings has increased since the beginning of the year in all major cities

Most of all, the "square" rose in price in Moscow, Kazan, Perm, St. Petersburg and Yekaterinburg.

Is it easy to buy a house in other countries

— The current situation leads to the fact that the accumulation period for the initial payment is increasing. More and more families are forced to either reduce the purchase area, or go to distant locations, or postpone the deal altogether," said Vladimir Chernov.

The analyst also noted the increased dependence of the market on targeted government support. Without it, a significant part of the demand does not pass through income. The risks of delays are also increasing. The Bank of Russia has warned that buyers hoping to refinance their mortgage later may face a bank rejection or too high a payment.

The demand for apartments with a smaller square footage is really growing in Moscow, St. Petersburg and Yekaterinburg, the press service of the LSR Group confirmed. They explained: this is due to purely economic reasons, the final value of the property is important for the buyer.

To assess housing affordability in different countries, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development uses the price-to-income index, which is the ratio of real estate prices to income in the country as a whole.

In Russia, according to Numbeo, for 2026, this figure is 13.7. In many European countries, it is lower: in France — 8.6, Great Britain — 8, Germany — 7.9. In the USA, it is even lower — 3.5. In China, it significantly exceeds the Russian level, where it reached 21.5. The higher this coefficient, the worse the housing affordability. A score of 3-5 is considered comfortable, 6-10 is stressful, and above 10 indicates its low availability, explained Vladimir Chernov.

There are also countries where the situation is much worse. For example, in Morocco, you will have to postpone your salary for 50 years to buy an apartment, and in Pakistan — 40, Evgeny Shavnev specified.

In Russia, the problem now is not even in the ratio of the price of a meter to a salary, but in the fact that housing is practically inaccessible on credit without state support. The family mortgage keeps the market afloat, but its conditions are getting tougher, Igor Rastorguev noted.

Housing affordability will improve with a combination of several factors. Household incomes should grow faster than apartment prices. Market mortgages should become significantly cheaper, and the gap between primary and secondary mortgages should narrow, concluded Vladimir Chernov. In the meantime, the market is based on government support and an expensive new offer, so housing for the mass buyer remains less affordable than a year ago.

There is no reason to expect a sharp decline in prices in the next year or two, Igor Rastorguev believes. This requires either an oversupply, which is not there (the introduction of new projects is slowing down), or a collapse in demand, but it is unlikely — the need for housing is not going anywhere. The real reversal will begin when the key rate drops to 10-12%. This level can be expected by the end of 2026 or the beginning of 2027. In such a scenario, mortgages will fall in price by up to 14-15%, which will bring buyers back to the market who are still sitting on deposits, the expert concluded.