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- Base for invasion: The United States is spinning up the case of the 1990s to put pressure on Cuba
Base for invasion: The United States is spinning up the case of the 1990s to put pressure on Cuba
Washington intends to open a case against former Cuban leader Raul Castro for the destruction of American aircraft in 1996. According to experts, Donald Trump may use this fact as an excuse to invade Cuba. At the same time, Washington is also trying to split the Cuban elite. He is betting on Raul Castro's grandson, who is more loyal to the United States. At the same time, the United States continues to exert economic pressure on the island state, trying to increase the discontent of the country's residents and provoke them to protest.
The reason for the invasion of Cuba
The United States does not abandon the forceful scenario of a change of power in Cuba. Back in early May, Donald Trump announced that the United States would "almost immediately" seize the island state, and CNN reported increased activity of military reconnaissance aircraft off the coast of Cuba.
In these circumstances, the media reported that the US Department of Justice decided to charge former Cuban leader Raul Castro in connection with the fact that in 1996 Havana shot down American planes over the international waters of the Florida Strait, which flew under the auspices of the organization of Cuban emigrants to the United States, Brothers to the Rescue.
Former Cuban leader Raul Castro
For many years, the "brothers" searched the sea for Cuban refugees and helped them reach the American coast. And in the 1990s, they expanded their activities and began dropping propaganda leaflets on Cuba. In Havana, they warned that planes would be attacked if they crossed Cuba's airspace again. In the end, that's exactly what happened, four crew members died. This has strained U.S.-Cuban relations.
The 30-year-old incident was decided to be reactivated in the face of unprecedented US economic pressure on Cuba. Raul Castro officially left the post of First Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Cuba in 2021. And although such a criminal case cannot serve as a legitimate basis for an invasion, it can still be used as a pretext for an operation, says Egor Lidovskaya, director General of the Hugo Chavez Latin American Cultural Center.
— Washington is preparing an intervention, and for this they need some kind of excuse. In addition, Donald Trump needs a victory over Cuba, whose rating has dropped to 30%," he told Izvestia.
In January 2026, the United States conducted a military operation in Venezuela, during which President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Celia Flores were abducted. As a result, Washington was able to overthrow an undesirable leader. Instead, Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who is more loyal to the United States, became the head of state. However, now Donald Trump is hesitating whether to launch a new similar operation, Egor Lidovskaya believes.
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Celia Flores escorted by police
— US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who represents the interests of the globalist elite, is setting him up for an invasion. Trump understands that he was framed with the war in Iran, and does not want the same result with Cuba: if the invasion fails for any reason, then the rating of both the president and the Republican Party will begin to tend to zero, the expert explained.
In the United States, it is believed that it is enough for an American aircraft carrier to approach the shores of the island, as everyone will immediately surrender. Trump has repeatedly said that Cuba is next in line after Iran. In addition, according to media reports, the American training school for combat in tropical conditions, which has not worked for the last 25 years, has been revived in Panama.
The American authorities are not currently considering the possibility of conducting a military operation against Cuba, the Associated Press previously reported, citing sources. However, according to the agency's interlocutors, Trump "may change his mind at any time."
"The main military and intelligence resources of the United States are now involved in the Middle East, which makes a large—scale operation in the Caribbean difficult from a logistical point of view," said Alexandra Terzi, program coordinator of the INF Treaty, in an interview with Izvestia.
Conducting a third armed operation in an election year, when the previous two — in Venezuela and Iran — failed to increase popularity among voters, would be too risky even for Trump, says Timur Almukov, an expert on Latin America.
— The fundamental transformations on the island and which particular figure will be in power are not so important to him. He is only interested in things that can be presented as a victory in the media field. For Trump, the main thing is to conclude a "big deal," the expert emphasized.
Increased U.S. pressure and protests in Cuba
Meanwhile, the United States does not give up trying to implement the Venezuelan scenario again. To do this, Washington is trying to split the Cuban elites, Timur Almukov believes. According to him, the United States is looking for people who are ready to betray in return for promises of economic benefits and other bonuses. It is not a fact that such a strategy will be successful, but in Venezuela, no one could have predicted the appearance of such a figure as Delcy Rodriguez, who would make concessions to the Americans, the expert noted.
American officials consider Raul Guillermo Rodriguez Castro, the grandson of Raul Castro, who controls the Cuban special services and the influential military concern GAESA, which manages the island's economy, to be a key figure in the transit. On May 14, CIA Director John Ratcliffe met with him in Havana. He conveyed Trump's message: the United States is ready to cooperate seriously on the economy and security, but only if Cuba implements fundamental reforms. President of the Republic Miguel Diaz-Canel has repeatedly stated that the country is ready to cooperate with Washington in trade, but will not dismantle its political system.
Protests in Cuba
The United States intends to exploit the discontent within the Cuban leadership by accusing current President Miguel Diaz-Canel of a complete failure of reforms. This is where the criminal case against Raul Castro comes in handy, experts say. The United States can use it as a tool of political delegitimization and pressure.
"Personally, Trump himself does not want a violent scenario, and he will be able to use the criminal case in negotiations calling for a change of government," said Yegor Lidovskaya.
In the meantime, the White House is apparently trying to persuade the Cuban authorities to cooperate. The American leader claims that the island nation is experiencing economic difficulties and needs Washington's support. Lidovskaya recalled the option that the United States considered in the first place: the color revolution. Protests have now broken out in Cuba amid power outages. Washington's strategy is to economically strangle and use the energy collapse to provoke internal collapse, Alexandra Terzi added. In such a situation, Cuba may "quietly fade away" and fall under the influence of the United States under the pressure of the humanitarian crisis, the expert concluded.
The first protests took place on the night of March 14 in the town of Moron in the central part of the island. Then the dissatisfied attacked the office of the Communist Party, clashes and detentions began. The protest was extinguished, but now a new wave has begun. So far, it looks like a series of local outbreaks in different areas of Havana, rather than a nationwide movement.
The protesters in Cuba primarily have domestic demands: to reduce long blackouts and allow people to sleep normally, store food and work. However, the government cannot quickly stabilize the situation, as the entire island is gripped by a fuel crisis provoked by the United States. From everyday demands, the protesters can move on to theses about a change of power. And against this background, the United States will be able to make its move, be it political or forceful.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
