They took over: the United States is preparing the ground for a coup in Cuba

The United States is trying to shake up the situation in Cuba in order to achieve a change of power on the island, experts interviewed by Izvestia say. The other day, 10 Panamanian citizens were arrested in the republic, who were preparing anti-government posters to organize protests. No one has officially named the American side as a customer yet, but the United States openly declares that Cuba is next in line after Iran. So far, Cubans have not gone to rallies, but the difficult economic situation may provoke unrest. If it fails to destabilize the situation, the White House may decide to take tougher actions, up to a military operation. Why this option is possible, despite the fact that Cuba, unlike Venezuela and Iran, does not have significant reserves of oil and gas, is described in the Izvestia article.

Organizing a coup in Cuba

In Cuba, 10 Panamanian citizens were detained who were carrying out an order to produce propaganda posters with "subversive content" that could be used to organize protests. After completing the task, they were promised to pay from $ 1 thousand to $ 1.5 thousand. Due to the low digitalization in Cuba and frequent power outages, detractors may well rely on propaganda posters to mobilize residents dissatisfied with the actions of the ruling Communist Party to protest, says the director general of the Latin American Cultural Center. Hugo Chavez by Egor Lidovsky.

The suspects have already admitted their guilt, but it has not yet been possible to establish who is the customer in this story. The investigation is ongoing. However, given the fact that the United States has openly named Cuba as the next target after Iran, it is obvious that the United States is interested in destabilizing the situation in the country.

— Cuba is next in line. Their regime will fall. Their days are numbered," South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham (listed as a terrorist and extremist by Rosfinmonitoring) said the other day.

The Atlantic newspaper, citing an official from the US presidential administration, wrote that Donald Trump is optimistic about the possibility of a change of power in Cuba, based on the detention of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and the attacks on Iran carried out with Israel.

To provoke dissatisfaction with the policy of the authorities and to form protest sentiments in Cuba is one of the goals of the policy that the United States has been pursuing in one form or another for several decades, Timur Almukov, an expert on Latin America, explained to Izvestia. This was the purpose of the 1960 American commodity embargo, which Trump decided to tighten, he added.

— The calculation of the American authorities is to make the situation of the Cubans so difficult that they will go to overthrow their own government. Hence the attempts to isolate Cuba from all its key partners — Russia, China, Venezuela, Mexico," Almukov said.

However, despite the continuing economic difficulties, there are no large-scale protest actions on the island, according to him, now.

Donald Trump has previously stated the possibility of a "friendly takeover" of Cuba. According to him, Havana has almost no money left, the parties are in dialogue, and Washington has a chance to establish control over the island without invasion. The media is writing about the grandson of Raul Castro as the likely new leader of Cuba. According to Axios, Marco Rubio is secretly negotiating with him.

It is widely believed in expert circles that Rubio, who comes from a family of Cuban immigrants, is the most active supporter of regime change in Cuba in the Trump administration. And the joke of the American president that Rubio could become president of Cuba, for many, serves only as confirmation of this.

The American media write: the Secretary of State and his team believe that a generation has changed in Cuba, young people think that communism has collapsed and are now focused on rapprochement with the United States. Despite the fact that the Cuban opposition is scattered and most of it is located in the United States, there have already been mass protests in Cuba. People took to the streets in 2024 amid power outages. Cuba is currently experiencing one of the most severe fuel crises caused by the oil blockade and sanctions, which could be one of the reasons for a new wave of rallies.

When will the United States attack Cuba

The activities of the arrested Panamanians are not the only high—profile case of interference in Cuba's internal affairs from abroad. On February 25, a U.S.-flagged boat entered the country's territorial waters and opened fire on border guards. As a result of the retaliatory actions, four saboteurs were eliminated, the rest were detained. According to the Interior Ministry, there were 10 Cuban nationals on the boat, and it was registered in Florida. Two members of the group were wanted for terrorism.

According to the latest information, the Cuban authorities have found the organizer of the sabotage. This is Maritza Lugo Fernandez, the leader of an underground group on the island. She lived in Havana, and moved to the United States in 2002. Since 2024, she has been searching for financing for the infiltration of armed individuals into Cuba.

Marco Rubio denied his country's involvement in the attack on Cuban border guards.

If it is not possible to shake up the situation in the country, the United States may consider a military operation against Cuba, experts say. At the same time, it is unlikely to expect a full—fledged seizure of the state - the preliminary congressional elections will take place soon, and the American public is reacting extremely negatively to the deaths of its own soldiers. Actually, this is also the reason why Trump's rating is now falling — after all, the operation against Iran has already led to the death of several servicemen. In addition, there is an unfortunate historical experience: in April 1961, armed groups of Cuban emigrants landed in Cuba with the participation of the US government. They hoped to overthrow the government of Fidel Castro, but were destroyed.

Cuba does not pose a serious threat to the United States right now, and it will be difficult to justify a full-fledged intervention on the island. According to Konstantin Blokhin, a leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, the United States could decide on a direct strike only if there was a risk of Russian or Chinese long-range missiles being deployed to the island. However, neither Moscow nor Beijing are negotiating with Havana on this issue. Therefore, the United States will rather limit itself to economic as well as psychological pressure on Havana, Blokhin is sure.

The expert allowed limited operations in Cuba in the spirit of the Cold War, since many assassination attempts were organized on the same Fidel Castro. This is possible now, so as not to waste a lot of resources on an island that, from an economic point of view, has little to offer the United States. But this is exactly what Trump's main guideline is, Blokhin argues.

If Caracas and Tehran control huge oil reserves, then the same cannot be said about Cuba. Venezuela accounts for about 19% of the world's proven reserves of raw materials, while Iran accounts for more than 11%. Cuba, according to various sources, ranks 67th in terms of oil reserves. The natural gas deposits in Cuba are also very small. And the possible engine of the change of power in Cuba is not resources, but ideology.

However, according to Yegor Lidovsky, military intervention should not be completely ruled out. Before the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro, few believed that the United States would decide on such an operation. Many experts were also skeptical that the United States could launch a long-term campaign against Iran.

Some Republicans may consider that a military operation against Cuba is capable of correcting ratings before the US elections in November this year, Lidovsky suggests. There is a strong antipathy towards leftist regimes among Americans in general, which is certainly related to the Cold War era. In addition, there is a large Cuban diaspora living there, which at one time left the island, often due to politics and the economic situation.