The example is contagious: The United States is thinking about regime change in Cuba
After the operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the administration of US President Donald Trump is discussing the possibility of blocking oil supplies to Cuba to overthrow the regime. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is lobbying for this idea. Some participants believe that such harsh measures will not be necessary, since Cuba, having lost energy supplies, is already on the verge of a humanitarian crisis. However, experts are confident that the Cuban regime is stronger than the Venezuelan one, and its overthrow will bring nothing but problems. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
Batista's Legacy
The administration of US President Donald Trump is considering the possibility of a complete blockade of oil imports to Cuba. This is reported by Politico, citing three sources close to the administration.
No final decision has been made yet, but some hawks within the president's team are pushing for it. In particular, they are supported by the head of the State Department (and a descendant of Cuban migrants) Marco Rubio.
Shortly after the operation of American troops in Caracas and the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Trump began to say that Cuba was "about to fall," since the country, according to the American leader, currently has no income. The president also reported that "Cuba is in a deplorable state" and "does not feel very well."
He noted that Havana had been receiving oil and money from Venezuela for a long time in exchange for providing "security services" to the Venezuelan authorities, but now these supplies have been stopped.
Under Maduro, Venezuela supplied Cuba with oil and helped the island with money, while Havana sent its doctors, teachers, military personnel and other professional staff who later worked in local government agencies. Subsequently, it turned out that the fall of one regime seriously shook the stability of the other.
Shake it up from the inside
The Wall Street Journal reported that after the administration of the American leader assessed the Cuban economy as "on the verge of collapse," it began to look for those in the government of the republic who would help change the local government by the end of 2026.
The White House, according to the publication, has set a goal to achieve a change of power in Havana by the end of 2026, relying on a combination of "economic strangulation" and behind—the-scenes deals with representatives of the Cuban elite.
Nevertheless, experts interviewed by the WSJ newspaper say that Cuba, unlike Venezuela, has a more disciplined, cohesive and ideologized elite that has been preparing for years for forceful pressure from the United States, so it will not want to work with Washington.
Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov called the information about a possible blockade of Cuba by the United States alarming.
"We know that our Cuban comrades are determined to defend their interests and defend their independence," the Kremlin spokesman explained.
Peskov added that Russia values its bilateral relations with Cuba very much.
The Oil Stranglehold
Ivan Glukhov, a researcher at the INION RAS Center for the Study of the Global South, noted in an interview with Izvestia that representatives of the Trump elite have many political and public figures who would like to return Cuba to their sphere of influence and be able to implement various commercial projects there.
—In addition, Cuba has a strategic geographical location, which is extremely advantageous for the United States in terms of control over this section of the Atlantic and over the Western Hemisphere as a whole," the political scientist believes.
He added that one of the most obvious supporters is Marco Rubio, who comes from Cuban migrants.
— His family moved from Cuba to the United States, so he would like to see a change in the political regime. But Cuba is much more resilient than Venezuela. Most likely, it will not be possible to pull off the same operation there as in Venezuela, the expert is sure.
The expert believes that it would be extremely unprofitable for Trump to receive real losses of American military personnel or other image strikes, especially now, against the background of the upcoming struggle for the House of Representatives and the Senate.
"No matter how much the US president himself would like to continue his political activity and strike the next blow on the crest of the wave and successes in Venezuela, Trump will do this only where it is really very subtle and where, conditionally, the political fabric can break," the analyst believes.
Glukhov suggested that Trump chooses the most vulnerable places because he needs to constantly keep not only the elites, but also the American people as a whole aware of these easy victories and the growth of American geopolitical influence.
— In my opinion, the emphasis here will be on a long-term plan to weaken Cuba. The United States will use both the oil stranglehold and further energy restrictions, and will also undermine the domestic political situation through their long—standing contacts on the island in order to sow a split in the Cuban elite," the political scientist concluded.
Annoy Russia and China
Elena Panina, director of the RUSSTRAT Institute for International Political and Economic Strategies, notes that the United States already had experience with the naval blockade of Cuba during the 1962 Caribbean crisis. In addition, the United States has a permanent military foothold on the island in the form of the Guantanamo Naval base.
"It is obvious that without external assistance — economic, political, as well as military — it will be extremely difficult for Cuba to stand up. By the way, the agreement between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Government of the Republic of Cuba on military cooperation was ratified as recently as October 15, 2025. It remains to fill it with real content," the political scientist believes.
Picket in Moscow during the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962
In her opinion, the United States intends to clean up the whole of Latin America.
"In particular, in order to deprive Russia and China of any opportunity to have bridgeheads there for a symmetrical response to the deployment of American ground—based INF missiles," the expert summed up.
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