Cold shift: how melting glaciers threatens Russia
Scientists have been talking about melting glaciers for a long time, but until recently, this process seemed slow and very remote to ordinary people. But the collapse of the largest iceberg, A23a, and new scientific evidence show that the situation is changing faster than expected. For example, the journal Nature Reviews Earth and Environment published a study describing more than 3.1 thousand glaciers that can dramatically accelerate their movement and move through valleys, creating potential risks for infrastructure and the public. What these changes mean and how they can affect, including Russia, is in the Izvestia article.
How are glaciers changing?
Not so long ago it became known that the largest iceberg A23a began to collapse in Antarctica. For comparison, back in August 2024, its area exceeded 4.3 thousand square kilometers, by the beginning of 2026 it had decreased to 1.1 thousand square kilometers, and after the giant began to disintegrate into separate fragments, it decreased to 50 km2.
Almost simultaneously, the journal Nature Reviews Earth and Environment published a study summarizing data on more than 3.1 thousand glaciers, whose condition also began to change.
The authors analyzed the conditions under which glaciers enter a phase of faster changes and mapped their distribution around the world. The main conclusion of the study is related not so much to the number of such objects as to the patterns of their behavior: instability occurs where the features of the relief, temperature regime and internal hydrology of the glacier coincide, including the accumulation of meltwater.
According to Afanasy Gubanov, a glaciologist, lecturer at the HSE Faculty of Geography and Geoinformation Technologies and a leading engineer at the Department of Cryolithology and Glaciology at the Moscow State University Faculty of Geography, such objects are known in classical science as pulsating glaciers — they undergo cycles of mass accumulation and its rapid redistribution without changing the total volume of ice.
— This mechanism was described long before modern climate discussions and is not exclusively related to current climate changes. Such glaciers are widespread in the high-latitude Arctic and high-altitude regions of Asia, for example, in the Pamir and Karakoram mountain systems. The phases of movement in such glaciers can last one to two years in mountain glaciers, up to 10 years or more in the Arctic," says the glaciologist.
According to the expert, it is important to correctly interpret the possible consequences. The rapid advance of the glacier can block mountain valleys, form temporary glacial lakes and, when they break, trigger mudflows. The key point is that the concept of danger in the scientific sense arises only where the natural process intersects with humans — infrastructure, settlements, economic activity.
How do glaciers affect the weather?
Glaciers are increasingly being described on the global agenda as a source of potential disasters, from flash floods to devastating avalanches. However, in the Russian context, the risks are unevenly distributed and largely depend not only on nature, but also on the density of settlement and development of territories.
According to experts from the Russian Ministry of Natural Resources, the regions of the North Caucasus — Karachay-Cherkessia, Kabardino-Balkaria and North Ossetia—Alania - remain the most vulnerable to dangerous processes of glacial origin. This is where two key risk factors combine: advanced glaciation and a high concentration of population and infrastructure. To a lesser extent, dangerous phenomena are recorded in Chechnya and Dagestan, as well as in the Altai Mountains. Kamchatka is a special case, where volcanic activity is added to glacial processes, which can increase the scale of possible destruction.
In general, as emphasized by the Highland Geophysical Institute (VGI) of the Russian Hydrometeorological Institute, the area of avalanche—prone territories in Russia reaches more than 3 million square kilometers - about 18% of the entire country. This means that potential risks affect not only high-altitude areas, but also vast mountainous areas of Eastern Siberia, poorly developed at present, but with high resource potential in the future.
For Russia, the main effect of melting glaciers is not associated with rare disasters, but with a change in the usual water balance of rivers in certain regions. We are talking primarily about mountainous areas, where glaciers have long played the role of natural regulators of summer water runoff.
Glaciologist Afanasy Gubanov notes that the contribution of glaciers to river nutrition is small across the country. However, the situation is fundamentally different for the Caucasus, Altai and their foothills. In the summer, up to half of the water in mountain rivers may come from glacial runoff. Glaciers here work as natural "accumulators" — they accumulate moisture in their bodies in winter and gradually release it in the warmer months.
— Now there is a steady reduction in glaciation, — explains Afanasy Gubanov. — And this directly means reducing the role of glacial runoff in maintaining the water content of rivers. By 2050, it is estimated that it may decrease by 30-40%. In general, this is a local problem for the country.
In practice, this process is already beginning to manifest itself. In particular, in the basins of the large rivers of the Caucasus, including the upper reaches of the Kuban and Terek, a change in long-term flow trends is recorded. According to hydrologists, the peak water content of these rivers was reached by the end of the 20th century, after which a phase of stabilization and a local decrease in summer water supply from glaciers began. The consequences of this process are most noticeable where water resources are directly related to economic stress.
At the same time, according to the Russian Ministry of Natural Resources, climate change affects not only mountainous areas. According to the Main Geophysical Observatory, what is happening in the Arctic — the so-called Arctic intensification, in which warming is several times faster than the global average — is already affecting atmospheric circulation over the entire country.
The weakening of the temperature contrast between the Arctic and temperate latitudes leads to a change in the behavior of the jet stream in the atmosphere. This powerful airflow begins to become less stable, forming more tortuous trajectories. As a result, the weather processes in central Russia are becoming more contrasting, and the likelihood of both prolonged heat waves and sudden cold snaps is increasing.
Where is Russia already protected, and where are the vulnerabilities remaining?
The infrastructure in some mountainous regions of Russia was initially created taking into account dangerous natural processes. Glaciologist Afanasy Gubanov cites the Baikal-Amur Mainline as an example. During its construction, engineering solutions for avalanche protection were actively used, and leading experts from avalanche science were involved in the research.
Baikal-Amur Mainline
— But many mountain roads in the Caucasus, Altai and other areas are much less protected. The reason is simple — the high cost of anti-avalanche measures and the limited effectiveness of such structures in extreme events. Settlements, as a rule, were laid out in advance on relatively safe terrain areas," the expert continues.
As Gubanov notes, the classic pulsations of glaciers occur in areas where there is usually no permanent human habitation. However, the underground lakes that can form during such processes pose a danger to residents and infrastructure further down the valley. That is why monitoring of potentially dangerous glaciers remains a key safety tool.
— Early detection of such processes will help to carry out timely evacuation and preparation. But there are also scenarios against which engineering protection is practically powerless. These include the events at the level of the Kolka Glacier in 2002, which are developing rapidly and leave no time for reaction. In such cases, the only real measure remains conducting surveys to determine potentially dangerous and safe trajectories," the expert emphasizes.
The Russian Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment highlights that the key task today is the transition from reactive actions to systemic adaptation. The regions are already developing plans to take climate risks into account, and coordination of this work is carried out at the federal level with the participation of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia.
When observing glaciers, a combined approach is important, combining detailed field research and remote observation, providing broader coverage, emphasizes Afanasy Gubanov. It is with this combination that the chances of timely noticing alarming changes in the state of the ice masses are high.
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