Weather transfer: how to develop a climate forecast for Kamchatka
The models reflecting Kamchatka's climate change over 50 years have been analyzed by scientists from the Vitus Bering Kamchatka State University. Due to the large amount of data, they had to develop a special program capable of analyzing it and making maps of changes. The final information will help create the first climate forecast for the peninsula until 2100. Experts note that the climate there is specific, but their experience in developing a forecast for this territory can be used both for research in the Far East and other regions of the country. About how the climate in Kamchatka is changing and why it is important to monitor it, see the Izvestia article.
The first climate forecast for Kamchatka
To predict temperature changes on the Kamchatka Peninsula, Vitus Bering KamSU scientists (Kamchatka State University) have developed a special computer program that allows you to analyze a large number of climate models and select those that most accurately reproduce the situation. Nikita Tananaev, a leading researcher at the Laboratory of Experimental Climatology, told Izvestia about this.
According to him, global climate models are complex systems of hydrodynamic equations. They contain a huge amount of information about climate change in different parts of the world.
The program was used to analyze models that reflect the climatic situation in Kamchatka from 1961 to 1990 and from 1981 to 2010.
"We are comparing information from the models and the actual observation data from the weather stations," said the researcher. — There is a theory that those models that most accurately reflect the climate changes of the near past will also effectively reproduce the climate of the future.
However, he noted that it is impossible to create a model that reproduces the real picture of the world with 100% accuracy.
"That's why probability theory is used to describe the climate situation using general parameters," the scientist said.
By the end of 2025, the laboratory's researchers should submit a climate forecast for Kamchatka up to 2100. The method used by the researchers makes it possible to describe in detail the changes in a particular region.
"Such approaches are actively used to make forecasts for large administrative regions," added a leading researcher at the laboratory. — For the European part of Russia, permafrost and droughts are modeled using similar methods.
Kamchatka's special climate
The strongest temperature spike occurred around the end of the 80s of the last century, KamSU scientists found out. Nikita Tananaev believes that this may be due to an increase in industrial gases in the atmosphere.
— Their main increase occurred after the Second World War, — he noted. — But the climate system does not immediately respond to changes. Therefore, the increase in temperature occurred decades later.
In general, during the period from 1961 to 2010, according to him, the average annual temperature in Kamchatka increased by more than 1 degree.
Warming by 1 degree is not felt by people, but they are affected by the consequences of such a temperature increase, Sergei Verkhovets, vice-rector for Advanced Projects at Siberian Federal University (SFU), told Izvestia. According to him, an increase in the average annual temperature on the Kamchatka Peninsula can cause peak precipitation, increased frequency of hurricanes and other problems. And the most dangerous consequence of warming is the melting of permafrost strata.
"The latter factor leads to changes in riverbeds, destruction of pipelines and oil and gas production wells, and ground movements under buildings and roads due to landslides," he said.
In addition, an increase in the average annual temperature in the coming decades may negatively affect the livelihoods of ocean inhabitants, Sergei Verkhovets notes.
"There are two dangerous factors here: faster erosion of the coastal strip and an increased risk of mass algae overgrowth to dangerous levels for the hydrobiota," he explained.
In addition, populations of some familiar species may drop sharply, even to a critical level. Kirill Vinnikov, director of the Institute of the World Ocean at the Far Eastern Federal University, told Izvestia about this.
Russia. Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. A sea lion at the pier in the Mokhovaya microdistrict in Avacha Bay.
—A striking example of the impact of climate change on populations of marine organisms can be the current situation of a sharp decline in the number of strigoi crabs in the Bering Sea," he said.
Kamchatka has a special climate, monsoon, said Alexey Kokorin, climate expert at the Nature and People Foundation.
"That's why the climate situation there is very specific," he said.
At the present stage, the average annual temperature on the Kamchatka Peninsula has changed less than in other regions, said Vladimir Semenov, Director of the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
— The ocean softens the climate of Kamchatka, so temperature fluctuations there are less than, for example, on the mainland territories of the Russian Plain or Siberia, — he explained. — Therefore, in general, the average annual increase in the Kamchatka Peninsula is not so strong as to cause dramatic changes in nature and affect the diversity of flora and fauna of the peninsula.
The territory of Russia is warming faster
The climate situation in Russia is changing faster than in the world as a whole, due to its special geographical location, Alexey Kokorin recalled. So, over the past 49 years, the temperature increase in our country has been 2.5 degrees, and in the whole world — 1.5 degrees.
— Firstly, this is due to the fact that a significant part of our country's territory is the Arctic zone, and it is warming faster, - he explained. — Secondly, most of the heat in the atmosphere usually goes into the ocean. And Russia occupies a large part of the land, far from the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. That's why our temperature is rising more strongly.
The climate is changing differently in each region, which is related to the movement of air masses, the expert emphasized.
"For example, summers in some regions, including Moscow, have become three degrees warmer over the past 49 years, while in the south of Western Siberia there is no increase in temperature this season," he explained. — Winter in Taimyr has warmed up by as much as five degrees, and in Yakutia there are places where the temperature has not changed at this time of the year.
In the next few decades, the average annual temperature in Russia may rise by another degree, says Sergey Verkhovets, Vice Rector for Advanced Projects at SibFU.
"Unfortunately, the north of Eurasia is warming much faster than the rest of the planet," he said.
There are several scenarios for the development of the climate situation, Alexey Kokorin explained. According to him, it is highly likely that countries will come to carbon neutrality — reducing greenhouse gas emissions to zero. In this case, it will be possible to stabilize the increase in the average annual temperature.
— The main countries in terms of carbon dioxide emissions are the United States and China, 40% of emissions enter the atmosphere from them, — said the expert. — If they come to carbon neutrality together with other countries, the temperature rise will slow down. Although we won't be able to roll it all back.
The expert noted that there is one scenario according to which the world will not come to carbon neutrality and the average temperature on the planet will increase by another 4-5 degrees by the end of the century, and in Russia — by ten. Then the migration of people due to the inability to live in Africa and some regions of Asia and America will amount to about 3 billion people.
If we achieve carbon neutrality, there will also be climate refugees, but in the amount of 0.5–1 billion, which is already a big difference, Alexey Kokorin said.
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