"It's worth getting used to a winter without snow."
The warm winter in Russia's middle zone is yet another signal that global warming is underway. And in the coming years, heat waves will occur more often, including in the traditionally cold season, said Alexei Kokorin, a climate expert at the Nature and People Foundation. He noted that in 40 years the average winter temperature in the Moscow region will be zero degrees, which means that there will be no snow cover. On how to adapt to climate change and whether it is possible to stop global warming - in an exclusive interview with Izvestia.
"In Pushkin's time, there were such waves too. But then they were about once every 50 years"
- The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has confirmed that 2024 has become the warmest year in the history of observations. How does this affect the planet?
- The abnormally warm year 2024 was caused by natural variations and factors superimposed on a more or less monotonous global warming trend, which was the result of anthropogenic enhancement of the greenhouse effect and resulted mainly from the burning of fossil fuels. That's how last year's record came to be. Next years are likely to be less record-breaking for the world.
But this does not explain why the winter is warm now in the middle zone of Russia. There are other processes here. There is a constant movement of air masses from the north or from the south. Due to warming in the Arctic, the boundary between its cold air and warm masses of temperate latitudes becomes more flexible. Along this boundary there are huge waves, which in depth can reach half of Russia. The wave goes down - it snows in Europe, the wave goes up - what we see now in the middle belt of Russia happens.
These waves have increased in absolute temperature by 1-2 degrees compared to the XIX and XX centuries. They have also become a little longer: for example, they are not 2.5 thousand kilometers in latitude, but 3 thousand. They began to move slower, and therefore last longer: for example, not two weeks, but two and a half weeks. But the main thing is that they became much more frequent. And in the times of Alexander Sergeyevich Pushkin there were such waves too. But then they were about once every 50 years, but now they are five times more frequent in the world as a whole.
Following one wave of warm air the second one can come. What we saw at the end of January this year. But in general, the warm winter in the middle zone is a signal that global warming is coming and we should pay attention to the greater frequency and strength of dangerous meteorological phenomena. Heat waves in summer are a dangerous phenomenon. Heat waves in winter - although pleasant for some, but also a dangerous phenomenon. Their number continues to grow gradually. So if globally all the coming years will be less hot than 2024, it does not mean that in Moscow, for example, there will be fewer heat waves in winter or heat waves in summer.
- Should Russians get used to warm winters without snow?
- Yes, they should, although it is a very slow process. Most likely, our children and grandchildren will have to get used to such winters.
Thus, in the second half of the XX century the average daily winter temperature in the Moscow region was -7 degrees Celsius. According to Roshydromet data, since 1976 winter in the Moscow region and in general in the north-west of Russia has warmed by 3.5 degrees. Throughout Russia - by 2.5 degrees. Thus, the distance from -7 to zero has already been half eaten by global warming. In the next 40-50 years, the trend is certain to continue. That is, in 40 years the average winter temperature in the Moscow region will be zero degrees. This means that the average winter will be without snow.
Of course, negative temperatures are also possible. According to the Main Geophysical Observatory named after A.I. Voyeikov. A.I. Voyeikov, it is in St. Petersburg, severe frosts will be everywhere, but much less frequent than now.
On the other hand, cold air breakthroughs will still not allow growing warm-loving crops in more northern regions. Because there will still be frosts, including in May and June. And this means that it will be difficult to grow anything new. I'm not even talking about bananas, but wheat, plums, cherries. Particularly heat-loving varieties that grow in the Rostov region will not be available to us.
"All over the world, the problems of water availability are becoming more acute."
- What other consequences for nature and people?
- According to medics, winter heat waves cause people to get sick more often, especially weather-dependent people. In my own experience, emergency room doctors say: it will be a normal winter, you will feel better. Although medics are more concerned about summer heat waves, when people with cardiovascular diseases seriously suffer. In addition, so-called southern diseases, such as West Nile fever, malaria, also go to the north, more ticks - carriers of encephalitis. On the website of the Main Geophysical Observatory you can see a detailed report with forecasts for Russia, what is expected and what we need to adapt to. It is called "Russia's Third Assessment Report" and was released at the end of 2022.
More globally, water availability problems are becoming more acute all over the world. The general rule is that where there is a lot of water, there will be more of it, and where there is little, there will be even less. In Russia, for example, there is a shortage of water in the Southern Federal District, from Crimea to Astrakhan. There have always been droughts there, but they will become much more frequent, even though the air temperature will rise by a couple of degrees. This will require reorganizing agriculture and shifting it, for example, to the north of the Black Earth Region - to the Voronezh and Tambov regions.
For the whole world, problems with access to water will be more acute. Huge regions of Asia, Africa, even Central America suffer from water deficit. Economists and sociologists are already talking about huge migration of people due to fresh water shortage.
- Will this situation affect the occurrence of wildfires?
- Forest fires are caused by a complex of reasons, including the human factor. That is, an abandoned cigarette butt, a fire not put out. But the abundance of dry wood and long dry and hot weather also become prerequisites for such fires. Especially in southern Siberia.
"There is no way to roll global warming back"
- Is there any way to slow down global warming? What efforts are needed for this?
- There is no way to roll back this process. It is not in our power to return the climate to the state of the XIX century. We cannot quickly remove large amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Forests can remove it, but it's slow. All we can do now is prevent the worst from happening. If by the end of the century we all stop climate change at a relatively safe level, it will be more or less acceptable. Of course, climate migration will still continue, but not at a catastrophic level.
Most countries are striving for carbon neutrality in one way or another, pushed by the economy itself and global markets. Russia declares its intention to achieve carbon neutrality no later than 2060. If the world reaches this goal by 2080, global warming will be more or less stabilized.
Since we have such a distance, we cannot roll back anything and we realize the power of dangerous phenomena, we must adapt to it. And this requires special efforts that require funds. In 2024, adaptation to climate change was included in the list of priority areas of scientific and technological development of the country approved by the President.
Adaptation concerns different levels. And living conditions, and agriculture, and the quality of roads. Somewhere we need flood protection, and somewhere we need to plant forest belts in the steppe zone.
- Everything in nature is interconnected. If Russia has an extremely warm winter, then other parts of the planet are also experiencing anomalies. What are they this year?
- The law of conservation of energy is fulfilled for the entire globe at any given moment. Across the planet, the near-surface layer of air has gotten warmer by a degree and a half. This means that if we are seven degrees warmer now, it means that somewhere is 5.5 degrees colder. That is, if most of the territory of Russia is a plus anomaly, then most of the territory of state X or Y is a minus anomaly. And this spread reaches ten degrees or even more.
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