Climate out of control: abnormally warm weather threatens crops
The abnormally warm end of January may have a negative impact on future harvests in the regions of the midland and southern Russia, farmers and agronomists believe. In the last days of January, the weather may set hundreds of temperature records, meteorologists believe. The sudden warmth has already been felt by birds, which have begun to prepare for the mating season. The eggs laid now may die during the expected return of frost in February, experts fear.
What temperature records to expect in January
Weather in the middle zone at the end of January will arrange a kind of record marathon, told "Izvestia" head of the forecasting center "Meteo" Alexander Shuvalov.
- Judging by the way the atmospheric processes are developing, high temperatures on the verge of a record will be maintained until the end of January in the entire middle zone of the European part of Russia," he said.
For Nizhny Novgorod it is 1-2 degrees of heat, for Moscow, Tula, Ryazan - 3-5 degrees of heat, for Bryansk, Smolensk, Kursk and Voronezh - 5-6 degrees above zero. Such temperatures, according to the expert, exceed the climatic norm by about 10 degrees.
- Practically all week two or three dozen cities will register new temperature records for these dates of January. I am afraid that the number of records for the week will exceed a hundred, - he emphasized.
On Sunday, January 26, and Monday, January 27, temperature records were set in both capitals, added leading specialist of the information agency "Meteonovosti" Tatiana Pozdnyakova.
Thus, in St. Petersburg on January 26, the temperature reached 4.7 degrees, the previous record of 2018 was +4 degrees. At 15 hours on Monday, January 27, at the VDNKh weather station in Moscow, the air temperature reached +5 degrees.
- This day turned out to be not only the warmest in the history of observations, but also became the warmest in this month, ahead of January 8 with a maximum temperature of 4.6 degrees, - said Tatiana Pozdnyakova.
Until the end of January, the air temperature in Moscow will be, according to her, above three degrees. Which means either a repetition of past records or their renewal.
High temperatures have led to the fact that snow has already melted in many regions of the middle belt, meteorologists added.
How the warmth will affect crops
Farmers in the south and central part of the country are reporting an unfavorable situation, Oleg Sirota, chairman of the board of the People's Farmer Association, told Izvestia.
- In the center and south of the country, the end of summer and autumn were dry - the moisture needed by agricultural crops has accumulated little. The problem is aggravated by the fact that due to insufficient snow cover and continuing warm temperatures, even those small reserves of moisture, which are now, are actively evaporating, - he explained. - If the situation does not change dramatically, a number of regions in the central part and the Southern Federal District are expected to experience a drop in yields.
In Siberia, according to him, the situation in terms of moisture reserves is generally favorable, because in autumn there were abundant precipitation and the existing snow cover should be enough.
Taiga forest in Krasnoyarsk region
- At the same time, warm weather brings other risks - pests, such as certain types of weevils, locusts and others, successfully winter in such conditions - emphasized Oleg Sirota.
Warm weather causes anxiety among farmers, confirmed the head of the Union of Potato and Vegetables Market Participants (Potato Union) Tatyana Gubina.
- We see that everything is beginning to blossom, the land is beginning to prepare itself for the harvest. But we are afraid that potatoes are not yet ready for planting and are in a dormant state. Secondly, if we start planting and sowing now, there may be return frosts later. This will not be good for potatoes, vegetables and winter crops, " she said.
Warm weather will not affect the harvest in the best way, said Sergei Korshunov, Chairman of the Board of the Union of Organic Agriculture. However, it will be possible to fully assess this in March-April, as it is important how climatically the exit from such a winter.
What is the danger of warmth for animals and plants
The prolonged thaw that continues in Russia may cause animals and insects in hibernation to wake up early. However, the temperature anomaly poses an even greater danger to plants, whose buds may begin to bloom. But they will freeze and will not be able to bloom again in the spring if frost strikes, Igor Shkradyuk, coordinator of the industrial ecologization program of the Wildlife Conservation Center, told Izvestia.
- There have been no cases of animals waking up en masse in January. But there are individual cases. For example, a jackass bear, if it wakes up, comes out of its den and does not fall asleep. He walks through the forest and attacks everything that can serve him as food, - said Igor Shkradyuk.
Because of the thaw and climatic changes in general, themating activity of birds begins earlier, Dmitry Ochagov, head of the "Zapovednoe Delo" laboratory of the VNII Ecology Federal State Budgetary Institution, told Izvestia. This follows from his forty-year observations.
- For example, the common pika started singing spring songs at the end of March. This year, for the first time, it happened in January. This shift is happening in other species as well, " he noted. - We heard the mating drumming of woodpeckers for the first time this month, although it usually happens later. If the thaw continues, egg-laying may shift to earlier dates, " said Dmitry Ochagov.
The thaw has also affected birds of prey, which may also have unfavorable consequences, added Alexander Sorokin, a leading researcher at VNII Ecology's Biodiversity Laboratory.
- The camera, which was installed in the nest of the peregrine falcon on the MSU building, showed that the female flew in and began to rake the substrate in the nesting niche, as happens before laying eggs. Clearly, hormones are contributing to this, otherwise they don't do it in winter. This requires a plus temperature, - emphasized the expert.
If the birds lay eggs now, they will freeze when the frost comes, the expert fears.
Mites may also wake up early, said Ruslan Butovsky, a researcher at the All-Russian Research Institute of Ecology and entomologist.
- Ticks hibernate as adults and crawl out on animals in early spring. If they wake up now, it is unclear what they will do next. They suck blood, and then they need to lay eggs. But in February frosts will hit again, and they will die, " said Ruslan Butovsky.
If such temperatures become a stable climatic trend, the habitats of insects may shift. More southern species will appear in our strip. This process has already begun, the specialist noted.
With the onset of early spring seasonal allergies can also begin earlier, warned Galina Serebryanskaya, allergist-immunologist of the Central Clinical Hospital "RZD-Medicine".
- This applies primarily to allergies to mold fungi and alder pollen (standardly it dusts in late March). If you have these types of allergies, you should start taking antihistamines in advance, " she reminded.
When winter weather will return
Winter will return with the beginning of February, meteorologists predict. It may happen already in the first days of the month, believes Alexander Shuvalov.
- However, in my opinion, frosts will not drop below 10 degrees. For Moscow and the Moscow region, this is expected to occur on February 2-3. So until the end of January we live according to the April schedule, and then return to the February schedule," he noted.
Nevertheless, the air temperature will still remain above the climatic norm, believes Tatyana Pozdnyakova.
- We expect that the weather in early February will be less abnormal than it is now," she added.
The snow cover in February may be restored for a short period of time, Tatiana Pozdnyakova believes.
- The ground has not frozen, so the snow will still thaw," she said.
Skiing in the capital region in February should not be planned, she added.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
