Lower the temperature: how Russia is preparing for the melting of permafrost
In Russia, about 60-65% of the territory is covered with permafrost. But it's not forever: in fact, it turned out to be not so eternal and is now actively melting. Forecasts sound different: for example, that the temperature of permafrost will rise by one degree by 2050. Even noting that this is a very simplified assessment, experts point to the seriousness of the problem. The authorities are also paying close attention to the situation. However, difficulties remain: the monitoring system has not yet been fully operational, and there are still disputes about the path that the country needs to take in dealing with permafrost. For more information, see the Izvestia article.
Ice melts between buildings
At the end of last week, Pavel Kotov, director of the scientific research center of the N.M. Fedorovsky Polar State University, said that by 2050 the temperature of permafrost in the Krasnoyarsk Territory in the area of Norilsk and Dudinka could rise by one degree. At the same time, "long-term thawing begins in part of the territory." He called this a pessimistic scenario, warning that such changes threaten "subsidence of the relief and deformation of infrastructure, the development of dangerous cryogenic processes, and changes in natural ecosystems."
Experts interviewed by Izvestia consider this assessment to be simplified. Alexey Maslakov, a leading researcher at the Northern Geoecology Research Laboratory of the Moscow State University Faculty of Geography, notes that there are about 10 different scenarios, from the most favorable to the negative.
— We have to talk about the spread of values: permafrost reacts to climate warming in a heterogeneous way: in some places it warms faster, in others slower, - the interlocutor of Izvestia points out.
One of the fastest warming rates is 0.7 degrees in 10 years. It was recorded in the area of the Severnaya Zemlya archipelago in Taimyr. At the same time, near the southern border of permafrost — in Salekhard, Neryungri, Magadan — the indicator is only 0.2–0.3 degrees over the same period. But there is another dangerous effect there — excessively deep thawing of rocks, when the energy of climate warming is spent not on increasing the temperature of negative soils, but on their thawing, the expert draws attention.
— And this, of course, leads to big problems. In particular, on linear infrastructure (roads, power lines, oil pipelines, gas pipelines), which is subjected to excessive thawing, subsidence of the surface, and the formation of gullies, which increases the cost of operating the engineering infrastructure, explains Alexey Maslakov.
Last year, scientists estimated that 18% of all buildings built by Russia in the permafrost zone will need to be repaired or even completely rebuilt by the middle of the 21st century. In absolute terms, this is about 26 million square meters. they say, the specialist clarifies.
The uneven change of the cryolithozone is seen in the example of Salekhard: There is practically no permafrost left around the city. It still persists in the city itself, because snow is being removed in it, and the soil cools down more in winter, says climatologist Oleg Anisimov, head of the climate change research department at the State Hydrological Institute. This indicates how many factors can affect the state of permafrost.
In turn, Vadim Petrov, Chairman of the Public Council at Roshydromet, cites data from the Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI), which already records the degrading permafrost in the southern regions of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District and predicts the beginning of degradation of frozen strata in the western sector of the high-latitude Arctic in the next 20-30 years.
"The key question today is not whether a particular degree is optimistic or pessimistic, but how quickly it will be possible, let's say, to "saturate" the country with observations and transfer forecasts from expert scenario mode to verifiable calculations with understandable uncertainty," the Izvestia interlocutor clarifies.
At the same time, preparedness for problems in the permafrost zone consists of three important contours: prevention, early detection and management of consequences, he emphasizes.
How Russia monitors permafrost
In Russia, a permafrost monitoring system has already appeared "in the first approximation," Oleg Anisimov recalls. Its creation was announced in 2020. According to the plans, 140 surveillance stations were to be built by the end of 2025. However, so far only 78 of them have been launched, according to the AIA, which is the main contractor for the creation of the system. The institute clarifies that a full-fledged system of 140 points is still at the stage of formation.
According to Yuri Ugryumov, Deputy director of the Institute, this spatially distributed network operates on the same methodological principles, which allows for obtaining comparable data. So far, there has been no such state monitoring system in any country in the world, he emphasizes.
— Each monitoring point includes a thermometric well with a depth of 25 m, provided with a thermometric scythe, a special device that allows measuring temperature at 32 preset horizons — from the surface to a depth of 25 m, — says the expert.
Permafrost monitoring points have been launched in 12 regions of the Russian Federation: in the Arkhangelsk Region, the Krasnoyarsk Territory, the Republic of Altai, the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District, the Far East and Buryatia, in the North Caucasus Federal District, Chukotka, the Murmansk Region, the Krasnoyarsk Territory, the Magadan Region and the Trans-Baikal Territory.
Vadim Petrov claims that this is already a working network: it gives an operational signal about the current temperature regime of the soils and about the transition through critical thresholds.
"The system is a necessary foundation for assessing the future effects of climate change: it will allow calibrating permafrost models, clarifying maps of hazardous cryogenic processes, and increasing the validity of construction and operation decisions,— the Izvestia source believes.
At the same time, geotechnical monitoring at infrastructure facilities, without which risks for specific buildings and structures are not calculated, will not replace the system, he is convinced.
Meanwhile, a number of regions have developed their own monitoring systems with their own methodology and other tasks. Alexey Maslakov reports that a regional permafrost temperature monitoring network has been launched in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District. Specialists use their own wells to monitor temperature changes in real time. A monitoring system has also appeared in Chukotka, within the city district of Anadyr.
— Regional monitoring systems are usually focused on specific tasks. In particular, it is aimed at maintaining the stability of buildings, roads, and infrastructure facilities," the expert explains.
According to him, the purpose of such systems is to notice the rapid thawing of permafrost in a timely manner and take appropriate measures to prevent an accident.
"But the data from state monitoring, which monitors the state of the background environment, also solves a utilitarian issue: these observations will form the basis for the justification of building codes for the next generations," believes Alexey Maslakov.
How is the preparation for permafrost thaw conducted?
Experts explain that in Russia, buildings on permafrost are built according to two basic principles. The first of them is the preservation of the frozen state of the soil. In this case, the buildings are installed on stilts, and the heat from the building should not warm up the soil. The second allows for gradual thawing, but the foundation structure must withstand this.
However, the current building regulations were developed in a relatively stable climate and did not actually take into account its changes, Oleg Anisimov recalls. He clarifies that currently designers use climate data for about 30 years, estimating them by five parameters: the average temperature of the summer and winter periods, the amount of precipitation for both periods and the extreme temperature. A safety margin is added to these calculations. These standards need to be changed now, and work in this direction is already underway.
— In October, we discussed this in Salekhard in the presence of construction practitioners from different northern regions of the country. One of our proposals is to add to the calculations for the five climatic parameters the delta of the expected climatic changes for the lifetime of the facility — say, for 50 years," explains the scientist.
In this case, what the designers calculate will roughly describe the situation at the end of the building's operation, he points out.
According to Anisimov, an algorithm for calculating this delta was also proposed. The scientific work on changing the building regulations has now been completed, which is under consideration by the FAA of the Federal Center for Standardization and Standardization, subordinate to the Ministry of Construction of the Russian Federation.
— But it will take more than one year before the building regulations come into force. If in a couple of years the proposal is written down as an algorithm for the designer, it will be a big victory," the expert is convinced.
It is very important to take into account climatic changes when choosing a building construction method, Alexey Maslakov emphasizes. The warming of the permafrost, even by half a degree, significantly reduces the stability of pile foundations of structures in this zone. This phenomenon is already being taken into account: permafrost characteristics are laid down during construction so that the building does not collapse in the face of climate change.
— And in regions where the southern boundary of permafrost is very close, in Salekhard, they are already thinking about whether to start building buildings not on the principle of preserving permafrost — on stilts — but on the principle of building on thawed soils. In fact, in the usual way," the scientist adds.
What the state needs to do
Experts emphasize that it is now necessary to continue to form a permafrost monitoring system, strengthen control over the condition of already built structures, as well as update building codes and train designers.
"I think we have about 10 years to do this, taking into account the rate of climate change," Oleg Anisimov believes.
In addition, the scientific community is discussing the need to create a federal law on permafrost. Such initiatives are already appearing at the regional level, in particular, in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Marat Sadurtdinov, acting head of the Department of Monitoring and Information—Geosystem Modeling of the Cryolithozone at the Institute of the Earth's Cryosphere at the Tyumen Scientific Center SB RAS, told Izvestia.
— The federal law should prescribe the principle of responsibility of regional authorities and business entities. A system of work on permafrost should also be created: regional centers collect information on individual landfills and transmit them to the federal one, where the data is accumulated and processed," he suggests.
Vadim Petrov notes that supporters of the creation of a federal law are talking about the problem of the fragmentation of data collected by companies and departments at their facilities. In particular, the methods differ, and there is almost no information exchange. However, the government is still following a different path, integrating permafrost into the already existing contours of environmental and hydrometeorological regulation.
A unified approach that combines geotechnical and background monitoring is very important, emphasizes Artyom Naberezhnye Chelny, Head of the Laboratory of Engineering Geocryology at the P.I. Melnikov Permafrost Institute of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. And now it is divided between business entities, Roshydromet and scientific organizations.
— There are also legal problems, since geotechnical monitoring is supervised by the Ministry of Construction, and background monitoring is supervised by the Ministry of Natural Resources. That is why the adoption of the federal law "On the Rational use and preservation of permafrost" was initiated, but so far our proposals have not been accepted, the expert says.
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