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- The place of the collapse: what are the real prerequisites for the collapse of the real estate market in the Russian Federation
The place of the collapse: what are the real prerequisites for the collapse of the real estate market in the Russian Federation
Developers are not lowering their front-line housing prices due to continued demand, although they are using personal discounts and marketing tools to stimulate sales. At the same time, the gap between prices for new buildings and "secondary" within the same city is 10-15%, and taking into account repairs — about 25%, and there have been no prerequisites for its reduction in recent years. This was stated by Elizaveta Danilova, Director of the Financial Stability Department of the Bank of Russia. Izvestia has learned whether the market is really stable or whether external stability hides risks that can provoke a collapse.
What are the risks?
In the Russian Federation at the end of the winter of 2026, according to Rosreestr, the number of registered equity participation agreements was 3,165 — at the level of February 2025, but significantly lower than the January peak of 2026 (4,262), caused by the excitement before the change in the terms of the "Family Mortgage". But this does not indicate a collapse, but a normalization of demand after the surge. The Bank of Russia records that most developers remain financially stable. By the end of 2025, profits in the construction industry increased by 57.5% (to 881.2 billion rubles), of which 384.9 billion rubles accounted for the construction of residential buildings — an increase of 2.7 times compared to the level of 2024 (the rest is infrastructure and social buildings). This data allows the industry to service its debt burden as part of project financing.
However, there are also disturbing signals. The average market mortgage rate in the primary market in March 2026 was 20.27% per annum, in the secondary market — 19.99%. Under such conditions, the availability of housing for the mass buyer remains limited: according to calculations, the House.In the Russian Federation, the housing affordability coefficient (the time it takes for a family of two working people to save up for an apartment in a new building, deferring the entire salary) in January 2026 was 4 years and 3 months. Although this indicator has improved compared to the figure of 5 years and 1 month at the end of 2022 due to outstripping wage growth (13.5% in 2025 versus 8.7% growth in prices for new buildings), high market mortgage rates continue to restrain mass demand.
There is no real reason to talk about the impending "collapse" of the housing market yet, but there are several accumulated risks that make the market much more vulnerable to shocks in demand and financing, warns Artemy Shurygin, president of the Russian Guild of Realtors (RGR).
In particular, falling purchasing power of the population and rising mortgage prices are reducing the number of transactions and slowing down development projects, while an excess of unsold housing in some regions (up to two thirds of new buildings) and rising construction costs are widening the gap between housing prices and buyers' incomes. Also important risks are the gap between the stated and actual transaction prices (up to 25% and above) and the possibility of a transition to long-term stagnation (to the so-called Japanese trajectory), they increase the likelihood of sharp price adjustments and withdrawal from the market of some construction companies.
"A market collapse is possible not so much because of rising costs, but because of the gap between the real incomes of buyers and the final price: if demand subsides more at high rates, and banks begin to severely review project financing, some companies may not have enough safety margin," warns Shurygin.
At the same time, the base scenario, according to the expert, is "not a collapse, but a prolonged stagnation with a point correction in the most overheated locations and segments." This suggests that the current market is in a state of "controlled cooling."
Can unsold housing be a trigger for lower prices
According to the Unified Housing Information System (UISWS), 81.7 million square meters remained unsold in the winter of 2026. m out of 120.8 million sq . m . m of housing under construction, that is 68%. The highest proportion of unsold apartments was recorded in the Krasnodar and Krasnoyarsk Territories, Bashkortostan, Voronezh, Leningrad and Rostov regions, where the figure reached 76-80%.
A study by the ACRA rating agency identifies 25 regions with a shortage of demand, where the ratio of sales and construction readiness of new buildings is below 60% (the optimal range is 60-80%). These include Krasnodar Territory (42%), Krasnoyarsk Territory (54%), Bashkortostan (56%). For such regions, it is possible to predict a decrease in the financial stability of developers due to insufficient filling of escrow accounts, slower price growth or stagnation, and the use of risky financial instruments by developers to stimulate demand.
The most likely scenario for the second half of 2026 is not an all—Russian collapse, but a local correction in regions with an excess of unsold housing and low demand, AREA President Andrey Solovyov predicts. Most likely, high—quality projects in strong locations will keep the price down, while lower-quality projects will be discounted, he believes.
At the same time, there is a shortage of supply in 30 regions, including Moscow (98%), St. Petersburg (96%) and Nizhny Novgorod Region (108%), which supports price pressure in these locations.
The gap between the stated and actual prices
Rosstat statistics show the gap between prices in the primary and secondary markets at 65% at the beginning of this year. However, as Elizaveta Danilova, a representative of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, notes, when comparing facilities in one city, the difference is 10-15%, and taking into account repairs in the "secondary" — about 25%.
In practice, developers are increasingly using discounts. According to NDV Real Estate Supermarket, last year the maximum discounts reached 30-35%, while the average discount was 10-15%. Metrium analysts confirm that discounts are more often applied to the least liquid lots — apartments on lower floors, with inconvenient layouts or in unclaimed locations. This creates the effect of "two prices": in price lists - an increase of 1-3% per month, in real transactions — stability or even a decrease. This practice allows developers to maintain formal price stability for banks and investors, respond flexibly to demand without publicly lowering prices, and accelerate the sale of complex lots without compromising the reputation of the project.
— The peculiarity of the situation is that there is currently no single offer price. There are conditions for holders of 100% of the amount, there are for applicants for a regular mortgage, there are for those who want to take out a family mortgage," explains Alexey Popov, chief analyst at CIAN.
The expert emphasizes that statistics on the amounts of proceeds to escrow accounts also indicate an increase in transaction prices. In other words, there is no situation where only showcase prices increase, and real transactions take place at qualitatively different levels.
At the same time, according to CIAN, the scale of discounts in the first quarter of 2026 does not exceed 7-8% of the showcase prices, which does not create prerequisites for a systemic crisis. Thus, the collapse of the market could be considered a massive default by developers. But there are still no prerequisites for this.
Balancing risk and sustainability
It is clear that the Russian real estate market is in a state of structural adjustment. The cancellation of mass preferential mortgages, high key interest rates and rising construction costs changed the rules of the game, but did not lead to a systemic crisis, the Bank of Russia says. The stability of the market is primarily ensured by three factors. The first is the financial stability of most developers. According to Rosstat, the industry's profit increased by 57.5% last year.
Another "stabilizing" factor is the continued demand in large agglomerations, according to the forecast of CIAN.Analysts, Moscow, St. Petersburg, and cities with millions of residents remain the drivers of activity. Finally, pricing flexibility plays an essential role — according to NDV Real Estate Supermarket monitoring, developers actively use discounts, installments and individual programs to maintain turnover.
At the same time, the risks remain, of course. According to ACRA's observations, an oversupply in 25 regions of the Russian Federation may trigger local price corrections. Mortgage availability remains limited now: according to statistics, the House.In the Russian Federation, rates above 20% extend the accumulation period for the initial payment and restrain mass demand. Dependence on macroeconomic policy is high: the further dynamics of the key rate, as noted in the Bank of Russia, will remain the main external factor determining the trajectory of the market.
There are no frightening prerequisites for the collapse of the real estate market in Russia yet, but we are already witnessing its transition to a state of stagnation, Kirill Kulakov, president of the Regional Association of Appraisers, Professor at the National Research University of Moscow State University, Honorary Builder of the Russian Federation, is convinced.
— Does this mean that the market will collapse and apartments will be sold at a bargain price? It's unlikely," he says. — Small development companies, mostly regional ones, are expected to have problems, but there will be no return to previous prices per square meter or mass sales.
The rate of reduction in the commissioning of new housing will continue, the expert expects. The demand for it will be supported by two streams of potential buyers: those who take out a preferential family mortgage, and premium-class buyers, for whom housing of the appropriate level is again becoming a "safe haven" due to geopolitical reasons.
— This does not exclude the holding of individual actions by developers. But there will be no return to previous prices per square meter or any mass sales," Kulakov emphasizes.
The forecast for 2026, according to the consolidated estimates of "CYAN.Analysts" and industry consulting agencies suggest a moderate price increase: in the primary market — by 12-14%, in the secondary market — by 10-12%, but with high differentiation by region and segment. A systemic collapse is not expected, but buyers and investors should clearly take into account not the showcase prices, but the real terms of transactions, local liquidity and financial stability of a particular developer.
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