In their own way: a new strategy is being prepared for the Russian automotive industry
Russia has developed a new strategy for the development of the automotive industry. Anatoly Grek, Head of the Transport and Logistics Practice at Strategy Partners, told about this at the FinAuto conference in Moscow on April 22. Izvestia found out what kind of future is being prepared for the domestic automotive industry and why experts predict a reduction in the number of car brands.
Not according to the training manual
Strategy Partners started developing a new concept for the development of the automotive industry a year ago. According to Anatoly Grek, it is currently being approved by the Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation. According to him, there is a need for a new strategy and new approaches to its creation — not according to the "methodology".
— Now the market is influenced not by economic, but by geopolitical factors. It is impossible to plan the market. If you don't get into the plans, the investment program changes. The state takes responsibility for itself, private capital does not go into it. So, you can not focus on external factors, you need to start focusing on your own [forces]. We said, let's find another model for predicting the market. What we want the market to look like. To have a certain number of national producers on it. So that they have scale, because any production works only on scale, otherwise it's all inefficient. We need to create a certain number of national platform solutions. SPIC 2.0, the re—signing of SPIC 2.0, the creation of large communities — all this will be in the strategy," said Anatoly Grek. He suggested that the market could reach 2.5-2.8 million cars by 2035.
Trucks on guard of sovereignty
As an example, he cited the freight industry, which, according to him, is in a "perfect storm."
— In fact, we have completely given our market to Chinese manufacturers. We see that our production is capable of producing more than 90 thousand trucks per year — these are the needs of our market. Obviously, national technological sovereignty must be taken into account when planning the truck segment. If it weren't for KAMAZ and Ural, we wouldn't have an army. Based on this, it is easy to assume for the next ten years who the state will support. Objectively, KAMAZ is no less technologically advanced than the Chinese who come," Anatoly Grek said.
The expert noted that KAMAZ and GAZ have managed to maintain a dealer network, they have customer support, their own spare parts programs, and training programs. He is confident that the government is not ready to "sell the market to other manufacturers" in this segment.
— It is absolutely certain that in the truck segment we must prepare for the fact that, by and large, we will have no choice. Simply because we have to support the national technological sovereignty of our manufacturer, which is not the worst at the moment. Everyone understands that this will, in fact, be a lack of competition, and the next 3-5 years will probably play negatively for KAMAZ and Ural from the point of view of the product, because there is no competition," said Anatoly Grek.
Provide affordable and high-quality vehicles
The Ministry of Industry and Trade confirmed to Izvestia that, in accordance with the instructions of the government and together with the industry community, they continue to work on updating the Strategy for the Development of the Automotive Industry of the Russian Federation until 2035, approved at the end of 2022. The press service of the ministry recalled that the possibility of updating is provided for by the document itself.
At the moment, the draft document is being finalized taking into account the positions of other interested federal executive authorities, the Ministry of Industry and Trade noted. As the draft document is finalized, it will be sent for approval by the Government of the Russian Federation.
"The global long—term goal of the domestic automotive industry is to provide citizens, business structures, and municipalities with affordable and high—quality domestic vehicles," the ministry stressed.
The ministry's press service told Izvestia what factors will be taken into account in the updated version of the document. These include approaches to shaping the future structural model of the car market in various segments, taking into account current and future challenges. These are the balance of domestic demand between domestic producers and imports, priorities for the distribution of state support measures between modes of transport using traditional and new fuels, as well as factors influencing the formation of a promising image of the automotive industry.
The experience of Uzbekistan and China
The main provisions of the automotive industry development strategy should be understood on an intuitive level, says Alexey Agureev, an expert on industrial communications, former adviser to Bo Andersson at AvtoVAZ and UzAuto Motors.
— It should be borne in mind that, firstly, historically, the domestic automotive industry has developed in close cooperation with the world's leading manufacturers. Secondly, international cooperation in the automotive industry is currently at a very high level. There is no point in being afraid of potential cooperation with global manufacturers, as the example of Uzbekistan shows that gradually, as the partnership develops, new forms of interaction are found. Thus, UzAuto Motors, which began as a joint venture, is currently fully controlled by the Uzbek side, but remains a strategic partner of GM," Agureev said.
According to him, the strategy should provide for the rapid development of real production of the most important automotive components in the territory. This is the only way to prevent a repeat of the situation when the departure of foreign partners in 2022 put the industry in an extremely difficult situation. In addition, the practice of "Belarusian shrimp" will be eliminated, when "repackaged" foreign products can be issued for local production.
— AvtoVAZ is working at its maximum in extremely difficult conditions due to the fact that there was no clear strategy, there was no clear line of development, or rather, it was constantly changing, — said Alexey Agureev.
This is the fourth or fifth strategy for the development of the Russian automotive industry in 15 years, said Igor Morzharetto, partner at Autostat.
— Unfortunately, none of them has been fully implemented. Moreover, there is a certain shifting from one idea to another in strategies. For the first one, we wanted to develop cooperation with foreign companies, for the second, we wanted to develop gas-engine fuel, for the third, electric vehicles, and so on. I just don't know what will be written now. But we really need to decide one day what we do and how we do it," the expert noted.
As an example, he cited China, where the strategy for the development of the automotive industry was developed 20 years ago.
— I read it 20 years ago. It has not changed, and China strictly follows all the tenets of this strategy. For example, then they admitted that they would never catch up with the countries of the West and East with the production of cars with internal combustion engines. And we decided to do something that no one else is doing, electric cars. And then they came up with the idea that the state would take over the construction of electric charging stations, that the state would sponsor equity participation in R&D on electric vehicles, the state would support the export of electric vehicles, and so on. Today, China is number one in the market of electric vehicles and hybrids," said Igor Morzharetto.
There will be fewer brands
Other experts who spoke at FinAuto spoke about a drop in the share of Chinese cars in the passenger segment in the first quarter of 2026 and a reduction in the number of brands in the near future.
The share of cars produced in Russia in total sales at the beginning of 2026 accounts for more than half. The share of Chinese brands continues to decline, says Sergey Udalov, Executive Director of Autostat.
Not all manufacturers can support sales in the Russian market, said Alexey Podshchekoldin, President of the Association of Russian Automobile Dealers (ROAD).
— We have more than 60 brands warming up. We will see that consolidation will begin this year and next, and there will be no more than 30 brands that will actually work," Podshchekoldin believes.
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