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- Where everything is heading: trends and prospects of the Russian car market and automotive industry
Where everything is heading: trends and prospects of the Russian car market and automotive industry
The situation on the automotive market and in the Russian automotive industry remains difficult. However, certain prerequisites for its improvement are still noticeable. This opinion was reached by industry representatives and experts at the ForAuto-2026 conference. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
On a rolling basis
The situation in the automotive market in January and February is generally similar to the situation at the beginning of last year. This was stated by Sergey Udalov, Executive Director of the Autostat analytical agency, at the ForAuto-2026 conference.
"We are entering 2026 with similar results as in 2025,— he said.
The expert noted that, as in the previous year, the results of new car sales in the first months were noticeably lower than the average for the year. One of the reasons is due to the fact that a certain part of the buyers decided to purchase the car at the end of last year.
Automakers themselves give similar assessments of the market situation. According to Dmitry Kostromin, Vice President of Sales and Marketing at AVTOVAZ, "the first half of the year will be difficult on the market." The restoration of positive dynamics is possible in the second half of the year, he believes. At the same time, the top manager of the domestic auto giant critically evaluates the beginning of this year.
— In my opinion, these are probably the worst January and February in the last 20 years of statistics, — said Dmitry Kostromin.
And he calls the absence of pressure on the market of a large number of unsold cars a sign of positive trends at the moment. At the beginning of last year, the problem of overstocking was very acute, he noted. However, now there is another reason that has a serious impact on sales of new cars.
— Now there is pressure from banks to tighten the requirements of borrowers, and we feel it, — said the top manager of AVTOVAZ.
This problem is also recognized by other market participants. However, according to the executive director of Geat Wall Motor Rus (manufacturer and importer of Haval, GWM, Wey, Ora) Andrey Akifiev, banks are already gradually adapting to the new conditions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
"They're starting to understand how to work with these clients,— he said.
What will happen to the prices?
Last year, according to Autostat, the weighted average price of a new car in Russia reached 3.29 million rubles. At the same time, depending on the region, this indicator will differ markedly. For example, in Primorsky Krai it is equal to 5.71 million rubles, in Khabarovsk Krai — 4.95 million rubles, in Moscow — 4.93 million rubles, and in St. Petersburg — 3.78 million rubles.
However, there are regions where the weighted average price of a car is lower than the "federal level". For example, in Tatarstan it is 2.91 million rubles, in the Samara region — 2.78 million rubles, in the Stavropol Territory — 2.61 million rubles. The lowest figure for last year was recorded in Kalmykia — 1.94 million rubles, according to Autostat. At the same time, the participants of ForAuto-2026 almost unanimously agreed that prices for new cars in Russia will increase during the year.
— The increase in recycling has not yet been fully recouped. This may lead to higher prices," Andrey Akifyev believes.
Ivan Saveliev, Executive Director of Hongqi Russia, also believes that the indexation of recycling will affect the price level of cars during the year. Andrey Vladimirtsev, the commercial director of Moskvich, does not currently see any prerequisites for lowering prices.
And only Dmitry Kostromin carefully suggested that car prices could decrease slightly over the course of the year, primarily due to discounts provided by dealers and automakers. He assured that AvtoVAZ would try to keep the current cost of its models at least until the end of June.
"It's all mine, darling"
Sergey Udalov calls the change in the structure of the automotive market and its gradual shift towards models assembled in our country one of the main trends of the past year. According to Autostat, imports of new passenger cars to Russia decreased by 57%, and in the heavy truck segment almost stopped (a decrease of 90%). At the same time, there is a clear trend towards an increase in the share of Russian cars sold. For example, the Tenet brand, which appeared on the market in the middle of last summer, became one of the three most popular car brands in Russia at the beginning of this year.
"The trend towards increasing the market share of models produced in Russia will continue throughout 2026,— said the executive director of Autostat.
To confirm his words, two new Moskvich models, the M70 and M90 crossovers, were presented at the ForAuto-2026 conference. According to Elena Frolova, general director of the Moscow automobile plant, sales will start in early March.
— New and existing Moskvich models will be produced in parallel. We plan to start welding and painting the Moskvich M70 by the end of this year. Russian suppliers of components for these machines have been identified," she told Izvestia.
Nevertheless, one of the key problems of the Russian car market remains unresolved — the lack of affordable foreign cars, said Sergey Tselikov, General Director of Autostat. According to him, over the past 10 years, their market share has decreased from 33% to 2%.
— We are talking about such models as Renault Logan, Hyundai Solaris, Kia Rio, VW Polo, Skoda Rapid. They occupied a significant market share and ensured overall growth," he said.
Russian car factories need to introduce affordable models into their product lines as soon as possible. Even at the current level of effective demand, this can give the market an additional 150-200 thousand new cars annually, Sergey Tselikov believes.
Localize it
To offer an affordable price for a car assembled in Russia, it is necessary to ensure a high level of localization, domestic automakers say. However, there are still difficulties with certain types of automotive components branded Made in Russia, they emphasize.
According to Alexander Zubik, director of the Strategy, Planning and Product Management Department at Great Wall Motor Rus, difficulties exist primarily with electronic components: engine and transmission control units, displays, and various modules. Another key issue is the cost of Russian components, which, due to their relatively small production volumes, is often higher than that of imported counterparts.
— Manufacturers of automotive components need volumes, then they will be able to keep the cost of their products at an acceptable level. And to ensure the required volume, a collaboration of automakers is needed to unify components," said Alexander Zubik.
Dmitry Kostromin, Vice President of AVTOVAZ, also calls the unification of automotive components a serious factor in reducing their cost and, as a result, reducing the final cost of a finished car. At the same time, he emphasizes that one supplier is not enough — several partners are needed, "otherwise the risks are high." Representatives of Great Wall Motor and AvtoVAZ confirmed that they and other Russian automakers are actively working together to unify components.
Unification is a necessary step, agrees Roman Gan, Chief Operating Officer of MGC Group Holding (which unites a number of Russian manufacturers of bodywork and plastic car parts, car windows, passive safety systems and other components). However, for the development of the automotive component industry, it is impossible to create new productions without looking back, it is necessary to use existing resources more actively, he notes.
— After the withdrawal in 2022 of a number of automakers that purchased Russian parts, a significant part of the existing production capacity is underutilized. For example, more than half of the stamping capacity is available, and about 70% for the production of plastic parts. This requires regulation at both the federal and regional levels," he said.
In some cases, manufacturers of automotive components and components have to seriously change and adapt their products to meet localization requirements, said Ekaterina Guseva, Director of the Marketing Department at Cordiant Holding. And often we are not even talking about electronic components, but about ordinary tires.
— It would seem that tires are a "low—hanging fruit" that can be quickly implemented on a particular model during its production in Russia. However, since a significant part of new Russian cars are based on Chinese models, it is not uncommon to encounter exotic tire sizes prescribed in the specification. This requires additional time for development, testing and adaptation when creating a tire of the right size," she said.
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