Keeping the pause: when will the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine resume
Russia will not extend the peaceful Easter truce, as a long break will allow Ukraine to increase its combat capability, the Russian Foreign Ministry said. Moscow wants a lasting, sustainable peace. It can be approached at a new meeting of representatives of the Russian Federation, Ukraine and the United States, which may take place after the resolution of the conflict in the Middle East. However, the probability of a quick settlement remains low, so the chances of an early trilateral meeting are low, experts say. Nevertheless, Kiev expects negotiations to continue in the near future, although the issue of Donbass remains unresolved. How the peace process will develop is described in the Izvestia article.
What to expect from the Easter truce
Moscow considers the Easter truce solely as a humanitarian act and a show of respect for Orthodox believers who live in Ukraine, Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik told Izvestia. The truce, which was announced by Vladimir Putin and accepted by Vladimir Zelensky, will last from 16:00 on April 11 until the end of April 12, 2026. A longer ceasefire would allow Kiev to use it for another military escalation.
— It would hardly be in Russia's interests to give Ukraine the opportunity to use a longer break for regrouping, erecting fortifications, building up military capacities and entering a new escalation. Now they won't get anything for a day and a half. But at least we will try to create conditions for people to celebrate the most important Christian holiday normally," said Miroshnik.
During the Easter truce, Russia will not resort to military means, so if provocations follow, it will be clear from whose side they were initiated, the diplomat added. Last year, Russia also declared an Easter truce, suspending hostilities from the evening of April 19 to April 21. As now, Moscow emphasized that it assumes that Kiev will follow the example of the Russian side. However, the Russian Defense Ministry then recorded 4,9 thousand violations by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Vladimir Zelensky also said that the Russian Armed Forces violated the truce more than 2,000 times.
In Europe, the Easter truce was called a positive but fragile initiative. In the past, such agreements were often violated, as was the case with the non-aggression pact on energy infrastructure, Luxembourg MEP Fernand Kartheiser reminded Izvestia.
"It was also concluded at a time when many expect major military offensives to begin in the spring, and therefore the truce can be used to continue the necessary preparations," the parliamentarian said.
This is probably why last year Kiev stubbornly insisted on a "break" of at least 30 days. And Kiev publicly rejected the 72-hour truce announced by Russia on May 8-11 on the occasion of the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War.
We do not want a truce, but a lasting, sustainable peace, Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on April 10. According to him, it could come as early as today if Zelensky makes a decision and assumes responsibility. Obviously, this refers to Kiev's ability to make concessions and, in particular, to leave the territory of Donbass. On April 1, Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov explained that this case "opens up prospects for resolving many issues, including the issue of cessation of hostilities."
However, the Easter truce itself, even a short-term one, can play the role of an important political and diplomatic signal, said Nikolai Novik, deputy director of the Center for the Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. "If the truce is at least partially respected and leads to a decrease in the intensity of hostilities, this may create a minimal basis for resuming contacts, primarily at the level of working groups or mediation platforms," the expert told Izvestia.
Will negotiations resume after the Easter truce
The negotiation format of the Russian Federation, the United States and Ukraine has not been curtailed, despite a long break after the last round on February 17-18 in Geneva. Miroshnik stressed that first it is necessary to wait for the resumption of "negotiations on negotiations", after which the date, agenda and venue of the meeting will be agreed. This requires the consent of all three parties: Russia, the United States and Ukraine.
"We are currently working in a format of interaction with the American side," he said.
At the same time, Washington's chief negotiators are currently engaged in resolving the war with Iran.
— When the same people are involved in negotiations on both Ukraine and Iran, they can hardly be in two different places at the same time. I would refrain from dates, because everything will depend on the Iranian track. So far, no date has been set and the period of "negotiations on negotiations" has not been held," the Ambassador—at-large of the Russian Foreign Ministry said.
It became known yesterday that a team of US negotiators led by Vice President Jay Dee Vance, Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and President's son-in-law Jared Kushner will travel to Islamabad for talks with Iran. The first round is scheduled for Saturday morning, April 11. Earlier, Washington and Tehran agreed on a two-week truce, and each side declared its own victory.
At least due to the noticeable difference in positions between Washington and Tehran, the likelihood that the conflict in the Middle East will end in the near future is quite low. This means that the chances that a new stage of negotiations on Ukraine will take place immediately after the Easter truce are also low, Bogdan Bezpalko, a political scientist and member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation, said in an interview with Izvestia.
The trip of Kirill Dmitriev, special representative of the President of the Russian Federation and head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, to the United States is obviously more related to events in the Middle East than to Ukraine. The Kremlin had previously clarified that Dmitriev would discuss exclusively economic issues with the Americans. Probably, the main topic of conversation will be the US sanctions against Russian oil. If the conflict with Iran continues, energy prices will rise again, so Washington is interested in increasing oil supplies from Russia to world markets to prevent price spikes, Bezpalko believes.
In mid-March, the U.S. Treasury Department announced the temporary lifting of sanctions on operations selling oil and petroleum products from Russia. The validity period expires on April 11. Reuters, citing sources, writes that Washington is likely to extend the permit for the purchase of Russian oil.
In Ukraine, on the contrary, they expect an early stage of negotiations. On April 9, Vladimir Zelensky said that in the near future there would be either a trilateral meeting or a new format: first, the American group would come to Kiev, and then to Moscow. He did not specify a specific date for the trilateral talks. Kirill Budanov, head of the President's office, also stressed that the peace talks are moving towards completion, and the agreement will not take long to conclude. However, there is no actual evidence of this yet: the peace process has been put on pause and the timing of its resumption remains open.
The situation in Ukraine has been further complicated by the war with Iran, Fernand Kartheiser believes. According to him, Kiev is facing new problems due to a reduction in the supply of weapons and ammunition. Indeed, the rhetoric of the Ukrainian elites is increasingly talking about growing problems.
Vladimir Zelensky said that Kiev is entering a difficult period until September. According to him, the reason for this will be military pressure from the Russian Armed Forces at the front and diplomatic pressure from Washington, which since the beginning of summer will be increasingly busy preparing for the congressional elections in November 2026. The commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Alexander Syrsky, announced an imminent "decisive confrontation" with Russia, which has increased its unmanned troops today. At the end of March, he noted that the main problem of the Ukrainian army is the shortage of personnel.
Nevertheless, as long as the United States continues to supply weapons, for example, indirectly through NATO programs, share intelligence, and the European Union continues to finance Kiev, Ukraine is unlikely to make concessions in negotiations, Bohdan Bezpalko believes.
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