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- We went to the square: how the liberation of the LPR changes the negotiation process on the Ukrainian settlement
We went to the square: how the liberation of the LPR changes the negotiation process on the Ukrainian settlement
Control over the entire territory of the LPR is capable of strengthening Moscow's negotiating positions and increasing pressure on Kiev, experts say. According to them, the end of hostilities in the region is changing the balance of power and may affect the terms of future negotiations, even despite the current pause in the dialogue. According to analysts, it is largely due to the shift in US attention to the situation in the Middle East and the redistribution of Washington's resources, which reduces the intensity of diplomatic contacts in the Ukrainian direction and postpones the possible resumption of negotiations. What scenarios of events are now possible on the line of contact and in the negotiation process can be found in the Izvestia article.
Northward vector and domino effect
The Russian army has completely taken control of the territory of the Luhansk People's Republic. On April 1, the Russian Defense Ministry reported that units of the Zapad group had dislodged the enemy from their last positions. Establishing control over the entire territory of the LPR is the most important stage of its development. The republic became the first region to be completely under the control of the Russian Federation, despite extremely heavy fighting in the Serebryansky forestry area and on the Svatovo–Kremennaya line.
Military expert Vasily Dandykin, in an interview with Izvestia, noted that now the attack vector will shift to the north.
— After the stabilization of the front at the junction of the LPR, Kharkiv and Donetsk regions, efforts will be focused on the northern flank. There will be movement through Krasny Estuary and Svyatogorsk, followed by access to Slavyansk. The main role in this operation will be played by the Zapad group," the expert explained.
According to him, in order to change the balance of power in the battle for Donbass, it is important to regain control over Izyum and Balakleya. Such a maneuver could disrupt key logistics routes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and complicate the transfer of reserves.
The success in the Luhansk direction has already been reflected in other sectors of the front. Experts note the "cumulative effect." So, in the Zaporozhye direction, there is an increase in activity in the Orekhov area. The strategic goal is to reach the rear of the enemy's Kherson group through Zaporizhia. Kharkiv and Sumy regions — movement and shackling of enemy forces is recorded. Donetsk direction — intense fighting is underway for Konstantinovka and Grishino.
Three factors contribute to the acceleration of the pace of progress (seven settlements were liberated in just a week), experts say. Firstly, the prevailing dry weather made it possible to actively use heavy armored vehicles. Secondly, there is a shortage of personnel in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The loss of trained fighters in the forests and on commanding heights dramatically reduced the stability of the Ukrainian defense. The third factor was the air defense crisis. Due to the escalation in the Persian Gulf, the West has redirected resources to other allies, leading to a shortage of anti-aircraft missiles. The effectiveness of the Ukrainian air defense has more than halved.
— The depletion of air defense systems and the loss of key fortified areas in the LPR create the prerequisites for a more intensive advance in the next two months. The main battle will unfold for the Kramatorsk-Slavyansk agglomeration, which remains the last powerful defensive hub in the region," concluded Dandykin.
The liberation of the LPR does not mean the automatic release and transfer of all units involved there. On the contrary, the key task at this stage is to consolidate the achieved milestones. It is necessary to establish full-fledged strongholds and echelon defenses in order to exclude any attempts of counterattacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The grouping of troops will remain in the region to ensure the stability of the now-rear region.
Military expert Viktor Litovkin emphasizes that the priority goal remains full control over the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic. Given that Kiev had previously rejected proposals for the withdrawal of troops, the main focus, according to his assessment, will be moving towards the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, where about 15% of the territory of the DPR remains under enemy control.
In parallel, the formation of a "security belt" continues. We are talking about working in the Kharkov, Sumy and Dnepropetrovsk directions to stop the shelling of Russian border towns. The southern vector remains equally important.
— Achieving the goals of the SVR is unthinkable without resolving the issue of Mykolaiv and Odessa. Now it is a springboard for attacks on Crimea using naval and aerial drones. Control over this coast is a matter of fundamental security for the Black Sea Fleet," Litovkin recalled.
Why are the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on pause
The negotiation process between Russia, Ukraine and the United States has been put on pause. The representatives of the three countries last met in Geneva on February 17-18. The head of the Russian delegation, Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Medinsky, then said that the negotiations were "difficult, but businesslike." After the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East, the Ukrainian crisis faded into the background for the United States, which is why the peace process was suspended.
"The pause is due to the fact that American negotiators are currently busy with other matters related to the situation in the Middle East. And for obvious reason, they cannot be actively involved in the process of trilateral negotiations on Ukrainian affairs," said Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation.
Participants of the trilateral meeting of the delegations of Russia, the United States and Ukraine in Geneva. February 17th, 2026
However, Bloomberg claims that the US administration has notified its allies that it is ready to organize a new stage of negotiations between Moscow and Ukraine, despite the fact that Washington is now fully focused on the war with Iran. No official proposals have been made in this regard, except for the official statement by Donald Trump on March 26 that the United States is working to resolve the Ukrainian conflict.
Moscow is ready to negotiate with Ukraine on the basis of the agreements reached in Alaska last August, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko said. However, specific dates and deadlines for renewal have not been determined. According to Mikhail Galuzin, a member of the Russian negotiating group and Deputy Foreign Minister, the United States is now trying to convince Kiev to agree to the compromises proposed by Moscow and Washington. However, Ukraine is not ready for this yet.
Yesterday, Vladimir Zelensky said that Moscow had given Kiev two months to withdraw troops from Donbass. Otherwise, the Russian Federation warned that it would occupy the territory of the DPR by military means, he added. Obviously, the Ukrainian authorities refused, to which the Kremlin reacted harshly on April 1. According to Dmitry Peskov, Zelensky needs to make a decision "today" on the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Donbass, although he should have done it "yesterday."
The final capture of the LPR will not affect the negotiation process in any way and will not force Kiev to compromise, political analyst Yuri Svetov believes. The General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces reported back in August last year that 99.7% of the republic's territory was under Russian control. Thus, it will not change the situation radically.
Now the negotiation process has reached an impasse, stated Bogdan Bezpalko, a political scientist and member of the Council on Interethnic Relations under the President of the Russian Federation. However, Ukraine's position may change if the conflict in the Middle East drags on.
— Because of the Gulf War, Ukrainian elites are beginning to worry about the supply of weapons and ammunition, especially for anti-aircraft missile systems, and most importantly, money. All US efforts are now aimed at supporting Israel: financially, militarily, and supplying missiles and Patriot air defense systems," the expert told Izvestia.
According to him, if Washington completely stops financing Kiev and sending it weapons through European countries, then within a couple of months Ukraine may make concessions in the negotiations. Earlier, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the PURL program, through which American weapons enter Ukraine, continues, but everything may change taking into account the national interests of the United States.
"Nothing has been redirected [to the Middle East] yet, but it could happen," he said.
The European Union may also reduce its assistance to Kiev in the context of the fuel and energy crisis due to the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz. Serious problems remain with the allocation of a loan to Ukraine for €90 billion, which the EU has not been able to agree due to Hungary's veto.
"I don't have any good news for you today," said Kaya Kallas, head of European diplomacy, during her visit to Kyiv on March 31.
Instead of the blocked package, the European Commission proposed to allocate €45 billion to Ukraine for blocked military financing in the amount of €90 billion. According to EC representative Balash Uyvari, we are talking about a "preliminary allocation of money," which, according to him, is possible before approving a loan of €90 billion. Of these funds, the European Commission intends to allocate €16.7 billion for budget support to Kiev and €28.3 billion for military purchases. The remaining funds are planned to be allocated next year.
According to experts, negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are possible in the near future, primarily around the Easter truce. At a meeting with European diplomats, Zelensky said that Ukraine was ready for him and was awaiting the reaction of Moscow and Washington. The Kremlin previously reported that they did not see a clearly formulated initiative in the words of the head of the Kiev regime.
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