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- Calm due to the storm: the Kremlin confirmed a pause in negotiations between Russia, the United States and Ukraine
Calm due to the storm: the Kremlin confirmed a pause in negotiations between Russia, the United States and Ukraine
Russia will continue to contact Ukraine on the exchange of prisoners and bodies of dead servicemen, Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia. He stated that there was a pause in the negotiation process between Moscow and Kiev with the mediation of Washington. The date and place of the next round have not yet been determined, said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin. The expert community, however, believes that now that the United States is at war with Iran, Washington may increase pressure on Kiev by declaring a moratorium on the supply of American weapons. How the Ukrainian settlement will develop and whether there are any chances for this process — in the Izvestia article.
How are the negotiations on Ukraine progressing
The Ukrainian settlement remains one of the main issues on the international agenda. Although the trilateral negotiations between Russia, the United States and Ukraine have been suspended after the escalation of the conflict over Iran, Moscow and Kiev continue to work on the humanitarian track. In early March, a prisoner exchange took place according to the "500 for 500" formula. The Kremlin emphasizes that they intend to negotiate new exchanges.
"Work in this area will definitely continue," Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the Russian president, told Izvestia.
The latest exchange became possible thanks to the agreements reached in Geneva on February 17-18 following the results of the third round of negotiations. Previous meetings were held in two working groups: a trilateral one (on security issues) and a bilateral Russian-American one devoted to economic aspects. Peskov stressed that the two groups work separately — they have different agendas.
— [Special Representative of the President of Russia for Investment and Economic Cooperation with Foreign countries] Kirill Dmitriev continues to work. The trilateral group is on pause," he clarified.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, who is also involved in the negotiation process, told Izvestia that there is no specific date and place for a new meeting between Russia, the United States and Ukraine yet. The agenda has not been fully formulated either, but the territorial issue remains among the main issues. Russia insists on the withdrawal of the Ukrainian army from Donbass, while emphasizing that it is ready to achieve its goals by armed means. Ukraine refuses to leave Donbass.
Back in June 2024, Vladimir Putin formulated the basic principles of the Ukrainian settlement. Among them are ensuring the rights, freedoms and interests of Russian-speaking citizens, recognizing Crimea, Sevastopol, and new regions (DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions) as subjects of the Russian Federation, and lifting all Western sanctions. The Russian leader stressed that these provisions should be fixed in the form of "fundamental international agreements."
"This position of ours is of a principled nature and is fully emphasized by the Russian side in its dialogue with all interested states,— Mikhail Galuzin said.
By the way, American President Donald Trump previously stated that the return of Crimea to Kiev, as well as Ukraine's accession to NATO, is impossible. Western media also wrote that the US administration is ready to accept Russia's sovereignty over the peninsula and Donbas in order to conclude a deal on Ukraine. Recognition of new territorial realities does not require congressional approval, since this action is solely within the authority of the executive branch and the president, said Khan, a professor at Wayne University in Detroit.
"However, Congress can still play a significant role in shaping the parameters of any such recognition, including the status of sanctions against Russia, which can continue regardless of statements from the president,— he told Izvestia. — It is still unclear whether the United States will limit itself to public recognition. After all, the Trump administration has hinted at recognizing Russian sovereignty over Crimea since April 2025, but has not fulfilled this promise.
The impact of the Iranian War on the conflict
As for the working group on economic cooperation between the Russian Federation and the United States, its last meeting was held on March 11 in Miami. Kirill Dmitriev's talks with representatives of the US President Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner focused on the global energy crisis provoked by the US and Israeli attack on Iran and the subsequent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Washington has eased sanctions against Moscow for the first time in many years, allowing India to purchase Russian oil on tankers at sea for a month. Before Dmitriev's visit, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation.
"Today, many countries, primarily the United States, are beginning to better understand the key, system—forming role of Russian oil and gas in ensuring the stability of the global economy, as well as the inefficiency and destructive nature of sanctions against Russia," Kirill Dmitriev noted.
The easing of restrictions on Russia has seriously concerned the leadership of the European Union — it has still not been able to fully agree on the adoption of the 20th package of sanctions due to the veto of Hungary and Slovakia. This issue is likely to be discussed at the EU summit on March 19-20. At the same time, Brussels opposes the revision of the plan for the final abandonment of Russian energy resources, despite the sharp rise in gas and oil prices.
In addition, the US war with Iran threatens the transfer of weapons to Ukraine. In particular, problems may begin in the supply of expensive American air defense shells, Politico previously noted. Vladimir Zelensky complained in an interview with the BBC that Kiev may face a shortage of Patriot air defense missiles. It is possible that supplies may partially cease due to a reduction in European purchases of American weapons under the PURL program. To remind about the Ukrainian theme, Zelensky organized a new European tour. On March 18, in Spain, he held talks with Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez. Before that, he had visited France and the UK.
At the same time, Kiev has increased its military activity. According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, in the period from March 2 to March 8, the number of attacks on Russian territory increased compared to the previous week, before the start of the conflict between the United States and Israel. On March 10, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a missile attack on Bryansk, which injured more than 40 people.
— Ukraine is trying to use the new conflict to its advantage. First, attempts are continuing to extract new arms supplies for themselves, talking about the exchange of Ukrainian UAVs for various missiles. Secondly, attempts are continuing to increase financing both through the €90 billion loan promised by the EU and by attracting new resources," Denis Denisov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia.
Kiev has sent military experts in the fight against drones and means of intercepting drones to the Middle East. However, this step was not appreciated by Trump. He demanded that Zelensky make a deal to end the conflict, accusing him of refusing to compromise with Moscow. Trump also rejected Kiev's help in the conflict with Tehran. According to Denisov, the US position on the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict has not changed.
Donald Trump
— At the same time, it can be stated that Donald Trump has the resources and opportunities to exert effective influence on Ukraine in order to achieve a settlement of the conflict. For example, to impose a moratorium on the supply of American weapons," the analyst noted.
In his opinion, the negotiation process on Ukraine will continue. For fundamental progress, there must be changes in the positions of the parties or on the battlefield, the expert concluded.
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