Counter resource: the crisis in the Middle East slows down the dialogue on Ukraine

The conflict between the United States and Israel with Iran threatens to slow down negotiations on the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. The UAE, where representatives of Moscow, Washington and Kiev had previously met, was under attack. The attention of the White House, including negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, is now focused on the Middle East. At the same time, Russia remains interested in continuing the dialogue and finding a diplomatic solution to the Ukrainian conflict. Experts believe that Europe and the United States may also reduce military support for Ukraine to protect their interests in the Middle East. The prospects for a new round of trilateral negotiations are described in the Izvestia article.

Where will the new round of negotiations on Ukraine take place

The escalation of the situation in the Middle East creates risks that the dynamics of negotiations on the Ukrainian crisis will slow down, Rodion Miroshnik, the Russian Foreign Ministry's ambassador-at-large for crimes committed by the Kiev regime, told Izvestia.

— The risks mainly relate to the functionality of the United States: how much they will be involved in the development of the conflict in this territory. Because the same people are involved in organizing the negotiation process. The conflict in the Middle East creates a negative background for a peace agreement," the diplomat replied to a question from Izvestia.

The first two rounds of negotiations in the Russia–USA–Ukraine format were held in Abu Dhabi in late January and early February. The third stage was held in Geneva on February 17-18. Then, the media, citing sources, reported that the next round is planned to be held in the UAE capital.

However, on February 28, the United States and Israel launched a military operation against Iran. Tehran is retaliating against Israel and American bases in the region. A number of facilities in the UAE were also affected, including Abu Dhabi and Dubai.

Russia is interested in continuing negotiations on the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict and remains open to them, Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on March 2. He also stressed that there is no clarity yet on the dates and venue of the trilateral meeting. Peskov clarified that now it is hardly possible to talk about a new round of negotiations on Ukraine in Abu Dhabi. In addition, the United States "obviously has more work to do," the Kremlin representative concluded.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke on the phone with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. The parties discussed issues related to Hungarian citizens who were mobilized into the Armed Forces and captured by Russia, as well as the escalation in the Middle East.

The issue of the Ukrainian settlement is "very high" on the White House's list of priorities, Donald Trump said at a meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. However, most of their conversation was still about the Middle East. European leaders are now trying to maintain their support for Ukraine, despite the new conflict, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte acknowledged during a visit to Northern Macedonia.

Vladimir Zelensky previously reported that the next round of trilateral talks was scheduled to be held in Abu Dhabi on March 5-8, however, due to the situation around Iran, Kiev cannot confirm the meeting. Austria and the Vatican are also being considered as a possible site, Zelensky told the Corriere della Sera newspaper. Do not forget about Switzerland, which has already hosted a meeting of representatives of the Russian Federation, the United States and Ukraine.

— Neither the Russian nor the Ukrainian sides have said anything about being ready to stop negotiations. That is, the peaceful track, at least from the direct participants, remains," emphasized Rodion Miroshnik.

According to him, Moscow has not given up on finding a political and diplomatic way to resolve the conflict.

"We always initiate these processes, and if we take only the Istanbul process, the result was more than 17,000 remains transferred to the Ukrainian side,— said Miroshnik.

The conflict in the Middle East will really delay negotiations on Ukraine, Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor of the Department of Political Theory at MGIMO of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, said in an interview with Izvestia. He stressed that in the coming weeks, the US foreign policy resources and all key players responsible for implementing foreign policy will deal with the Iranian dossier.

US President's Special Envoy Steven Witkoff and businessman Jared Kushner, who represented the American side, are also actively involved in the Middle East and are likely to be distracted by this issue in the future.

— There is a possibility of closer involvement of European countries in the conflict in the Middle East. We see that the UK is leaning towards a more serious involvement in this operation. The task of connecting Europeans also requires hardware time, perseverance and dialogue of top officials," the expert believes.

According to Loshkarev, Ukraine was largely forced to negotiate due to pressure from the United States, which wants to end the Ukrainian crisis. When this pressure subsides, Kiev will have less incentive to conduct these negotiations meaningfully, regularly and at a high representative level.

Will the West reduce its support for Ukraine

The conflict between the United States and Israel with Iran also affects the scale of support for Ukraine. With the advent of the Trump administration, Washington sharply reduced gratuitous aid: only $400 million was allocated to Ukraine in the military budget for 2026, and a similar amount is planned for 2027. The American weapons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are now being obtained thanks to the Europeans, who pay for them at their own expense. A key element of these supplies is the Patriot air defense systems, which are now claimed by US allies in the Persian Gulf region.

"If air defense systems are needed in the Middle East now, it is obvious that they will be sent there as a priority," Loshkarev added.

Political analyst Denis Denisov, in a comment to Izvestia, also pointed out that the military of the United States, Israel and the Gulf countries are rapidly using missile stocks for air defense. Accordingly, Washington will be forced to cover these needs, including at the expense of European allies and Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Vladimir Zelensky is trying to put pressure on Russia through the countries of the Middle East. According to Bloomberg, Kiev is offering the Gulf states assistance in combating Iranian drones in exchange for pressure on Moscow to conclude a truce for a month. The Russian authorities have repeatedly named the conditions for a peaceful settlement, and Zelensky is trying to use the global agenda to achieve his own goals.

However, these attempts are unsuccessful: the leaders of the Arab countries prefer to do business with Russia, Ukraine can hardly help them in any way. On March 2, Vladimir Putin had telephone conversations with the President of the United Arab Emirates, the Emir of Qatar, the King of Bahrain and the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia. The situation in the Middle East became the main topic of each of the four conversations.

The European Union has found itself in a difficult situation due to a new crisis. Europe previously became the main donor to Ukraine — its military aid in 2025 increased by 67% compared to the average for 2022-2024. The leadership of the European Commission insists on continuing to support Ukraine, but discontent is growing among European countries. An attempt to confiscate Russian assets failed at the end of last year, and a new loan of €90 billion was blocked by Hungary.

Now Brussels must not only help the United States, but also fulfill its obligations to protect one of the EU countries, Cyprus. The British Akrotiri military base on the island was previously hit by drones, Reuters reports. In response, Greece is already sending two Navy frigates and two F-16 fighter jets to Cyprus, France will deploy anti-projectile and drone protection systems, and will also send its own frigate.

The Middle East agenda is more important for Nicosia than distant Ukraine. And given that Cyprus holds the presidency of the EU Council until July, this topic is likely to dominate the meetings of this body.

Against the background of how the United States has switched to the conflict with Iran, and the EU is forced to respond to the actions of its ally, Ukraine is falling out of the focus of Western attention. For Kiev, this trend poses a critical threat — a reduction in military aid will lead to the collapse of the front. As Denis Denisov noted, the Ukrainian leadership can use the traditional method of provocations in the form of terrorist attacks and sabotage to return the attention of the West. Ivan Loshkarev believes that not only traditional attacks on energy infrastructure and attempts to assassinate high-ranking military personnel are quite likely, but also new methods, for example, sabotage at Navy facilities.