Resource phase: Asian countries return to oil purchases from Russia
Asian economies, including US allies, decided to take advantage of Washington's decision to ease sanctions against Russian oil. The Thai authorities are already planning to start negotiations on its purchase, and Japan is considering such an opportunity. South Korea has also come to understand that Russia is a reliable supplier of energy resources, Russian Ambassador to Seoul Georgy Zinoviev told Izvestia. Russia has its own infrastructure for oil exports, and the US decision may strengthen the negotiating positions of Russian suppliers and reduce discounts, experts say. Moscow currently sells 94% of its oil to friendly countries, but thanks to limited supplies to Tokyo and Seoul, it can make additional profits.
Asian countries are preparing to increase oil purchases from Russia
Due to the difficult situation on the global oil market, the United States has eased sanctions against Russia. The U.S. Treasury Department has issued a 30-day permit to countries for the purchase of Russian oil and petroleum products already at sea. We are talking about about 100 million barrels, said Kirill Dmitriev, special representative of the President of the Russian Federation for investment and economic cooperation with foreign countries, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF). The day before, he held talks with representatives of the US administration in Miami. Previously, India was the first country to receive such exemptions.
"The United States actually recognizes the obvious: without Russian oil, the global energy market cannot remain stable," Dmitriev stressed.
Kirill Dmitriev, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation for Investment and Economic Cooperation with Foreign Countries
A number of Asian countries are showing interest in restoring Russian fuel supplies. Thai authorities are preparing for negotiations on the purchase of oil from Russia, said the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Transport of the kingdom of Phiphat Ratchakit Prakan. The issue of lifting economic sanctions against Russia was raised at a meeting of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, the media reported. Sri Lanka has already asked Russia to ensure energy supplies to the country, the Russian Embassy said.
Due to the conflict in the Middle East, South Korean expert circles have come to understand that Russia is a reliable supplier of energy resources to its traditional partners, Russian Ambassador to Seoul Georgy Zinoviev told Izvestia.
— Since December 2022, South Korean companies have not purchased Russian oil and petroleum products, while importing liquefied natural gas from Russia in certain volumes continues. We do not yet have information on whether the relevant economic operators intend to resume or increase these supplies," the diplomat stressed.
According to him, the authorities of the Republic of Korea are trying to ensure sustainable energy supplies to local consumers by temporarily regulating prices at gas stations and using strategic reserves of oil and petroleum products to prevent sharp price fluctuations in the energy market. The reason is that oil from the Middle East covers up to 90% of South Korea's needs.
After the US-Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, the situation on the global market became unstable. Tehran intends to continue the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, using it as a lever to achieve military goals, Iran's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei said in his address. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has promised that any Arab or European country will have the right to allow ships to pass through the strait if it expels American and Israeli ambassadors.
As a result, 15-20% of the world's oil supplies were under threat, which led to a spike in prices: on March 13, a barrel of Brent cost $102. Previously, it reached up to $120, such values were recorded for the first time since 2022. So far, there are no prerequisites for resolving the conflict, which means that the pressure on the oil market will continue.
The European leadership was expected to oppose the easing of American restrictions. This decision was criticized, for example, by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who noted that "it is wrong to ease sanctions against Russia for whatever reason."
At the same time, Poles and even Germans began to travel en masse to the Kaliningrad region to refuel cars. For this, they are willing to travel a long way and stand at customs for several hours. The fact is that a liter of AI-95 gasoline in Poland now costs more than 6 zlotys (about 131 rubles). In Germany, its price is even higher — € 2.1, or 192 rubles, while at Kaliningrad gas stations a liter of AI-95 can be purchased for about 68 rubles.
How much oil can Russia supply to Asian countries
In 2021, Russia ranked fourth in terms of oil supplies to South Korea, exporting about 10 million tons there, which accounted for about 6% of all Korean crude oil imports. In 2019, Japan also bought almost 10 million tons from Russia, but by 2021, the volume of supplies had fallen to 2.64 million tons. Russia accounted for about 3% of Thailand's oil imports until 2022.
Oil exports from Russia in 2025 reached 238 million tons, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said earlier. 94% of this volume is accounted for by friendly countries, primarily India and China. Russian officials have not rejected the possibility of supplying energy resources to South Korea and Japan. Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov stressed that Russian-American cooperation can and should stabilize energy markets.
Based on the data from 2021, Moscow can technically supply Thailand, South Korea and Japan with volumes comparable to the peak values of previous years, that is, about 15-20 million tons of oil per year. But the real numbers depend on specific arrangements.
At the same time, the US authorization may strengthen the negotiating positions of Russian exporting companies and reduce discounts, since earlier US bans had an impact on trade discounts, the beneficiaries of which were importing countries, Tamara Safonova, Director General of the Independent Analytical Agency for the Oil and Gas Sector, told Izvestia.
— During the period of sanctions pressure, Russia traded energy resources without any permits and licenses from the United States. The license for the purchase of Russian oil is a document aimed at demonstrating the influence of the United States on world trade," the expert said.
The price really remains the subject of a negotiation process between Russian exporters and buyers in Asia, while Washington may extend the permit for the purchase of oil from the Russian Federation, Andrey Eremin, head of commodity markets at Alfa Capital Management Company, emphasized in an interview with Izvestia.
— In case of prolongation or escalation of the conflict, the United States will have the opportunity to extend the export permit. During this time, the United States can also build a more efficient supply logistics towards Asia and offer competitive prices for WTI oil. Therefore, it is now very difficult to predict whether this permit will be extended," the expert noted.
Meanwhile, the lifting of certain oil sanctions against Russia will not lead to a significant increase in production. Despite the imposition of sanctions, oil production and exports in Russia did not fall, and due to the easing of restrictions, Moscow will receive more profits in conditions of high prices, Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia.
On the other hand, as some experts have previously warned, open information about quotes may not correspond to the actual conditions of sales and budget revenues. Due to the circumvention of sanctions restrictions, Russian exporters are using discounts unknown to the market, so in fact some oil shipments may still be sold lower depending on the supply basis.
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