- Статьи
- World
- Oil is not like that: Hungary fears new provocations by Kiev against fuel and energy facilities
Oil is not like that: Hungary fears new provocations by Kiev against fuel and energy facilities
The conflict between Budapest and Kiev is escalating. Ukraine did not allow the Hungarian delegation, which was supposed to discuss the restoration of the Druzhba oil pipeline. At the same time, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said that Kiev was trying to impose an energy blockade on the country by attacking the Turkish Stream. Budapest fears new provocations against fuel and energy facilities and is strengthening the protection of critical infrastructure, the Russian Embassy told Izvestia. Meanwhile, experts believe that the conflict with Ukraine may even play into Viktor Orban's hands and strengthen the ruling party's position before the elections. After all, it has come to the point that Zelensky threatens the leader of the EU and NATO countries.
Budapest-Kiev conflict: Zelensky switched to threats
The standoff over Druzhba has been going on for more than a month, but the conflict has escalated particularly sharply in recent weeks. On March 11, an attempt by Budapest and Bratislava to send an inspection team to Ukraine to assess the condition of the pipe turned into a new scandal: Kiev refused to recognize the mission as official, saying that its participants entered the country under the guise of tourists. It is worth noting that Gabor Tsepek, State Secretary of the Ministry of Energy, was sent from the Hungarian side.
On the same day, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto added additional tension. He accused the Ukrainian side of attempting an energy blockade after the attack on the Russian compressor station, which is part of the infrastructure of the Turkish Stream.
On March 5, Vladimir Zelensky's words caused a special resonance that the address of the person blocking €90 billion of European aid to Ukraine could be transferred to the Ukrainian military to "speak their language." The next day, even the leader of the opposition Tisza party, Peter Magyar, who is building a campaign to criticize the government, demanded that these words be withdrawn if they were actually uttered.
A new scandal broke out on March 11-12, when the statements of former Ukrainian MP and ex-intelligence officer Grigory Omelchenko added additional resonance to the conflict. After his words about the possible massacre of Viktor Orban and the mention of the Hungarian prime minister's family in Budapest, they said that threats were already being received not only by the head of government, but also by his relatives.
The story of the Oschadbank cash collectors, who were detained in Hungary on March 5, became a separate stage of escalation. According to Kiev, the bank's employees transported $40 million, €35 million and 9 kg of gold from Austria to Ukraine, but Hungary detained both the vans and the collectors themselves. Later, the people were released, but the cargo remained on the territory of the country: Kiev called the incident "hostage-taking" and "state terrorism," while Budapest announced suspicions of money laundering and sponsorship of the Hungarian opposition.
If this is proven, the scandal with Oschadbank may play a role in Hungary's domestic policy, said Oleg Karpovich, head of the Department of the MGIMO Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry. It will be difficult for the European Union to defend Ukrainian interests in such a situation.
As the Russian Embassy in Budapest told Izvestia, the Defense Council has met several times in the country in recent weeks to discuss the risks of Ukrainian provocations against fuel and energy facilities. According to the diplomatic mission, as a result of these meetings, the regime of protection of critical infrastructure was strengthened, and the army and police were involved in the protection of energy facilities.
"Based on this, we can state that the risks of provocations by the Kiev regime are taken very seriously here and are met with a proper reaction from government agencies," the diplomats said.
At the same time, the dispute over "Friendship" reached the level of the European Union. Politico newspaper reported that in recent weeks Zelensky has toughened his rhetoric against both critics and allies: he rebuked European leaders for too slow a pace of support, exchanged harsh statements with Orban and openly questioned Donald Trump's approach to the conflict in Ukraine.
People from Zelensky's entourage warn that such rhetoric may alienate the very partners on whom Ukraine depends for financing, arms supplies and diplomatic support. Undoubtedly, the Ukrainian-Hungarian conflict increases the general turbulence in European diplomacy, Karpovich is sure.
At the same time, the issue of the oil pipeline will be resolved at the EC level. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said after a meeting with Ursula von der Leyen that Bratislava and the European Commission are united in the need to restore pipeline transit through Ukraine. Brussels also acknowledged that it was considering options to facilitate repairs, including financial mechanisms. Moscow, for its part, is also committed to its obligations.
— President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin has repeatedly confirmed that, despite the negative sanctions background, Russia remains a reliable supplier of hydrocarbons and is ready to fulfill its obligations in this regard with the constructive attitude of the partners. Hungary, of course, is one of them. The modalities for the delivery of energy resources are discussed through corporate channels," the Russian Embassy added.
The impact of the Druzhba situation on Hungarian politics
The impending energy crisis in connection with the conflict in the Middle East is inevitably reflected in Hungary's domestic agenda, which is preparing for the elections. Due to the sharp rise in oil prices and the ongoing shutdown of Druzhba, the government imposed a ceiling on fuel prices and ordered the release of some reserves.
Orban directly linked the price spike to Ukraine's actions and at the same time called on the European Union to reconsider sanctions against the Russian energy sector. The situation around the oil pipeline definitely plays into the prime minister's hands, because when threats are made by Zelensky, it goes beyond all possible boundaries, Vadim Trukhachev, an associate professor at the Financial University, said in a conversation with Izvestia.
— Despite the fact that Orban's position is not the easiest as it is. He relied on foreign policy, forgetting about domestic policy, and Europeans, as a rule, do not like this. But help came to Orban from where it was last expected," he said.
For him, this crisis is especially important because of the internal political situation. According to a 21 Research Centre poll published on March 11, Peter Magyar's Tisza party was gaining 53% among undecided voters against 39% for Orban's Fidesz. Among all the respondents, the ratio was 38% versus 30%. A week earlier, another survey by Zavecz Research also recorded the opposition's leadership.
Hungarian sociology cannot be trusted, Trukhachev believes. Because it is tied either to Orban, or to Europe, or to the structures of George Soros (a number of them are considered undesirable in Russia).
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban
— Some give a slight advantage to Orban, others give a slight advantage to Magyar. Most likely, the chances are about equal. And then a lot will depend on how many candidates each of them will run in single—mandate constituencies and how many parties will get into parliament at all," he said.
An additional advantage for Orban may be the migration agenda, since Orban is not only the Prime Minister of Hungary, but also the leader of the pan-European Patriots for Europe party, whose program is based on limiting the flow of refugees to the EU. Any escalation in this area, even outside Hungary, could strengthen his position as a "defender of national interests."
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
