You can't sow, you can't reap: rising fertilizer prices may affect crops
An increase in fertilizer prices — by more than 30% since the beginning of the year — may lead to lower yields. Agricultural producers have already appealed to the Ministry of Agriculture with a request to take action, Izvestia learned. After the abolition of export duties, the domestic value actually equaled the foreign market, and there was a shortage in some items. The ministry announced the suspension of exports of ammonium nitrate, which was becoming scarce for domestic farmers. They also noted that a set of measures is currently in place to ensure that agricultural producers are provided with fertilizers, which allows them to maintain a stable market situation. At the same time, according to editorial sources in the market, a one-month ban on the export of all fertilizers is currently being discussed. What the industry expects and whether the situation can affect the country's food security is in the Izvestia article.
What is the reason for the shortage of fertilizers in Russia?
Farmers are concerned about the inability to purchase fertilizers due to high prices and their shortage on the market. Mass complaints about this situation are received by the Association of Agricultural Producers "Narodny Farmer", which appealed to the head of the Ministry of Agriculture Oksana Lut with a request to take action. The document reviewed by Izvestia says that one of the main reasons for the current situation was the cancellation of export duties for fertilizer producers from January 1, 2025.
Export duties on fertilizers in Russia were in effect from September 2023 until the end of 2024. They were aimed at protecting the domestic market from unjustified price increases and supporting a rational ratio of exports of goods and domestic consumption. However, they have been reset since January 1, 2025. This decision was related to an increase in the mineral extraction tax (MET) for producers. At the same time, as explained by the Ministry of Finance, it can contribute to an increase in exports.
"The price of fertilizers in the domestic market has increased sharply and has become a record, and there is a shortage in many positions. Thus, due to the quota—free export and non-taxable export duties on mineral fertilizers, the domestic cost was equalized with the foreign market value," Oleg Sirota, chairman of the association, told the head of the Ministry of Agriculture.
The document emphasizes that in the context of the implementation by the state of measures to curb the growth of prices for agricultural products, farmers are effectively deprived of the opportunity to shift additional fertilizer costs to the final cost of their products. At the same time, reducing their use is also unacceptable, since it carries a high risk of declining yields, and for the industry itself, the risks of loss of profitability and even bankruptcy of producers. This is confirmed by the fact that over the past five years, mineral fertilizers have risen in price much more than agricultural products.
"Without stabilization of the situation, the agricultural sector can expect a significant decline in agricultural production. This will complicate the implementation of the target to increase agricultural production by at least 25% by 2030 compared to the level of 2021, established by Presidential Decree No. 309 of May 7, 2024. The Association suggests considering the possibility of taking measures to reduce and stabilize prices. Such a step could be to restrict the export of mineral fertilizers," the document says.
The situation with the availability of mineral fertilizers has reached a critical point, as the domestic market has actually lost its price protection mechanisms, Babken Ispiryan, deputy chairman of the association's council, told Izvestia.
"When supplies to the domestic market become secondary compared to export contracts, farms find themselves in unequal conditions," he said.
According to him, farmers currently lack the necessary supplies of additives for spring field work. Postponing purchases may lead to disruption of agrotechnical deadlines or force farmers to purchase top dressing at speculative prices, an industry representative said.
— The restriction imposed by the Ministry of Agriculture on the export of ammonium nitrate from March 21 to April 21 is a necessary measure. It makes it possible to provide farmers with a high-demand type of fertilizers during the sowing season. At the same time, the situation is systemic and requires a comprehensive approach," Babken Ispiryan emphasized.
In addition to the return of export duties, in his opinion, it is also necessary to introduce export quotas during peak demand periods and ensure transparency of pricing in the market.
According to industry estimates, the cost of fertilizers has increased by more than 30% on average since the beginning of the year.
The Ministry of Agriculture, together with the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Russian Association of Fertilizer Producers and the Federal Antimonopoly Service, keeps the situation with prices for mineral fertilizers under special control, the press service of the department told Izvestia. They also noted that, by decision of the government, a set of measures is currently in place to ensure that agricultural producers receive additives.
— Farmers are provided with preferential loans, per-hectare and other types of support. There is a mechanism for fixing the maximum price in the trade and sales policies of manufacturing plants. The systemic measures taken make it possible to ensure a stable market situation and the availability of fertilizers in full," the Ministry of Agriculture said.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, the purchase prices of the main types of mineral fertilizers in March decreased mainly compared to 2025. So, as of March 18, the average cost of carbamide at distributors decreased to 35 thousand rubles per 1 ton (-3% YoY), ammophos — to 61.5 thousand rubles per 1 ton (-1.4%), diammophosk — to 43.5 thousand rubles per 1 ton (-2.8%), CAS — to 21.9 thousand rubles. per 1 ton (-1.1%). Prices for ammonium nitrate increased by 1.9% over the year to 24 thousand rubles per 1 ton.
— In order to provide Russian farmers with high-demand types of fertilizers, the validity of issued and issued licenses for the export of ammonium nitrate has been suspended. The measure will be in effect from March 21 to April 21, 2026. The exception is deliveries carried out under intergovernmental agreements. In the context of growing export demand for nitrogen fertilizers, the suspension of their supplies abroad will make it possible to meet the needs of the domestic market as a matter of priority during the spring field work and ensure their uninterrupted operation, the ministry said.
What measures can the authorities take to reduce prices?
As a source in one of the industry unions told Izvestia, the ministry has already held several meetings closed to the media on this issue. As one of the measures, the issue of introducing a monthly moratorium on the export of additives other than ammonium nitrate is being discussed.
The Association of Peasant (Farmer) Farms and Agricultural Cooperatives of Russia (AKKOR) also expressed concern about the current situation.
— From March 24 to March 25, Kazan hosted the Congress of Russian farmers, which was attended by 700 delegates from 65 regions. One of the topics was the increase in prices for fertilizers, as well as their shortage, including ammonium nitrate, which simply does not exist. Representatives from Kurgan, Chelyabinsk and other regions stated this in their speeches," Olga Bashmachnikova, AKKOR Vice President, told Izvestia.
According to her, following the results of the congress, a resolution is being prepared, which will be sent to the government, the Ministry of Agriculture and other departments with a request to provide support to farmers not only with fertilizers, but also in solving other issues.
— Indeed, prices for supplements are rising and measures need to be taken. Of course, there are farmers who bought them in advance, but there are others who, for some reason, could not do this," Sergei Kolesnikov, chairman of the Board of AKKOR of the Stavropol Territory, told Izvestia.
According to him, the country's food security should not be less important than the profit from the sale of fertilizers abroad. The situation will negatively affect the harvest if farmers carry out the sowing campaign without using additives, he added.
— By the end of 2025, fertilizer prices have already increased by 28%, and now they continue to increase. This is an absolutely critical issue for farmers, especially on the eve of sowing, as it is difficult to get a good harvest without additives," former Deputy Minister of Agriculture Leonid Kholod told Izvestia.
According to him, the situation is now complicated by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 30-35% of the global market for nitrogen fertilizers, ammonium nitrate, and phosphorus went. Russia is their largest producer, so there is a great demand for fertilizers from our country. The benefits of external transactions, given the absence of any price restrictions, are obvious, and they exceed the interest in sales in Russia, the expert emphasized.
In his opinion, given the current situation, it would be logical for the Ministry of Agriculture to consider introducing fertilizer quotas for the domestic market. This is a non-market measure, but the situation is extraordinary, the expert believes.
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