Not only grain: what will Russian agricultural exports look like in 2026
The Russian agro-industrial complex continues to increase its power. In the context of growing global demand for food, the demand for products from the Russian Federation remains high, despite the existing geopolitical challenges. In particular, the volume of grain exports in 2026 may reach 55 million tons. Supplies for other categories of agricultural products are also expected to increase. Which markets will become a priority for domestic farmers can be found in the Izvestia article.
A fruitful year
According to the results of the current agricultural season (from July 2025 to June 2026), Russia can export 57.8 million tons of grain and legumes. This forecast was given by Igor Pavensky, head of the Rusagrotrans analytical center.
According to preliminary estimates, wheat exports may amount to 44 million tons, and barley exports to 5.3 million tons. At the same time, corn exports will amount to 3.8 million tons.
Meanwhile, back in October, the Ministry of Agriculture predicted grain exports in the current agricultural year at the level of 50 million tons.
However, in late December, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev, in an interview with Izvestia, raised this estimate to 53-55 million tons, specifying that this figure corresponds to the average values for five years. He stressed that Russian grain remains one of the most in demand on the global stage, despite the reduction in supply volumes compared to the agricultural season of 2023-2024.
"Today we are really in a phase of lower global prices. This was reflected in the export figures. However, since August, the dynamics has been gradually leveling off," Patrushev said.
The Deputy Prime Minister added that in general, the grain harvest in Russia by the end of 2025 will amount to 137 million tons in net weight, which is one of the most significant harvests in recent history.
Leader status
Taking into account the increase in domestic production of grain and leguminous crops in the 2025/26 season, as well as stable demand from key importing countries, we can expect an increase in the pace of shipments of Russian grain in 2026, said Ilya Ilyushin, head of the Agroexport Federal Center.
"The key factor in the global grain export market this season is record production, which leads to increased competition in the main sales markets," the source said.
Grain and leguminous exports from Russia are likely to remain at a high level by the end of 2026, but the growth rate will be more subdued compared to record periods, predicts Yulia Kuznetsova, economist and investment adviser at the registry of the Central Bank.
—Rusagrotrans' forecast of 57.8 million tons reflects the potential of the current agricultural year, while a more conservative assessment by the Russian Ministry of Agriculture indicates the impact of weather and logistical risks," the Izvestia interlocutor notes, predicting that exports in 2026 will stabilize in the range of 50-55 million tons.
Galina Sorokina, Doctor of Economics, Director of the Institute of Economics and Finance at the State University of Management, is also expecting an increase in exports of processed grain and leguminous products in the new year.
— However, taking into account the weather conditions in Central Russia, there are risks of reducing the harvest of winter crops. And winter wheat, in particular, accounts for about 70% of the total harvest of this grain. Therefore, we should expect a decrease in the harvest and an adjustment in export volumes, — says the interlocutor of Izvestia.
Kuznetsova also highlights weather conditions, duties and the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate among the key factors that will affect global supplies.
— Logistics and access to the fleet, as well as the geopolitical configuration of sales markets and trade restrictions will be of additional importance. A weak ruble traditionally supports export attractiveness, but at the same time increases pressure on domestic prices," she explains.
At the same time, Russia consistently occupies one of the leading positions in the structure of global grain exports, remaining the largest supplier of wheat and a key player in the global food security market, the economist emphasizes.
— We have long been world leaders in wheat and continue to maintain a high market share. Last season, we also took the first place in the supply of sunflower oil, which is certainly a significant achievement. In addition, Russia consistently ranks in the top 3 in exports of barley, rapeseed oil and meal, as well as sunflower meal and soybean oil. The country ranks fifth or sixth in corn exports," Ilyushin lists.
Market diversification
Speaking about the supply of all types of agro-industrial products from the Russian Federation to world markets, it is necessary to separate the flows of raw materials and finished goods, Ilya Ilyushin draws attention.
— Russian grain, in particular, is most actively exported to the countries of the Middle East (Turkey, Saudi Arabia), Africa (Egypt, Sudan, Kenya, Nigeria) and Asia (Bangladesh, China), — says the head of Agroexport.
Galina Sorokina confirms that over the past few years, Russian grain has been increasingly exported to Asian and African countries.
"However, according to the Chinese Customs Administration, in the first 11 months of 2025, shipments were a quarter lower than last year," she said.
Meanwhile, India, China, Turkey and Saudi Arabia predominate in the structure of supplies of fat and oil products, Ilyushin lists.
—China and Vietnam, as well as our neighbors Belarus and Kazakhstan, are buying meat more and more,— adds Izvestia's interlocutor.
In the case of finished products, Russian exports tend to focus on the near abroad, but recently the role of countries in the Middle East and Asia has been increasing, he notes.
— We are working on market diversification for more stable export performance, therefore we strive not only to strengthen in traditional directions, but also to open new ones, — the expert emphasizes.
In 2026, the Asian sector is expected to further strengthen its role in the structure of Russian agricultural exports, as well as expand its presence in African countries where demand for food is growing, Yulia Kuznetsova points out.
Heterogeneous development
Exports of Russian dairy products will develop heterogeneously by category, Ilya Ilyushin believes. According to him, some segments are already experiencing steady growth in supply volumes, while others are facing correction and reorientation to the domestic market and neighboring countries. Overall, Russia supplies dairy products to more than 60 countries, but over 80% of exports still go to neighboring countries.
First of all, we are talking about Kazakhstan, Belarus and Uzbekistan, where Russian products are well known and trusted for their quality, the head of Agroexport lists.
— The export strategy is mainly based around these markets, complemented by targeted access to the countries of the Middle East, Asia and Africa. There are separate products with higher added value going to the East and South: whey ingredients, processed foods, ice cream and specialized dairy products," explains Izvestia's interlocutor.
Galina Sorokina confirms the priority of neighboring countries in the procurement of this category of goods and clarifies that China's share, for comparison, increased by only 3% in 11 months of 2025. Moreover, these 3% include the entire product range, including not only dairy products, but also eggs and honey.
The supply of meat products will continue to increase in 2026, Ilyushin believes, expecting that poultry exports will grow at a moderate pace. Pork supplies abroad, in turn, will show steady growth rates due to high demand, an expansion in the number of certified companies for export and an increase in export destinations, he said. Meanwhile, Russian beef has a high export potential in all price segments, including premium.
"As for other categories of food products, in order to successfully expand its presence in foreign markets, the Russian meat exporter will need to pay more attention to analysis and adaptation to consumer preferences, as well as more actively carry out marketing promotion," the expert emphasizes.
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