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- Harvest regime: the UN declared the need to dramatically increase global agricultural production
Harvest regime: the UN declared the need to dramatically increase global agricultural production
By 2050, in order to provide the world with products, the agricultural sector will need to increase production by about 50-70%, otherwise global needs will remain open, Oleg Kobyakov, director of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) office for relations with the Russian Federation, told RIA Novosti. To what extent Russia and other countries are ready for such changes and what support measures are needed for the agricultural sector, see the Izvestia article.
Increased production
The problem lies not so much in the ability to grow more food, but rather in whether people will be able to buy it, Denis Ternovsky, a leading researcher at the RANEPA Center for Agri-food Policy, told Izvestia. In general, the global volume of agricultural products is now at an acceptable level. In order for them to start growing at a relatively constant level of technology, prices would have to be raised.
However, it remains doubtful whether residents of low—income developing countries are willing to pay amounts that will ensure profits for farmers from major food exporting countries. The option of increasing output right in those regions where the population is rapidly increasing and demand is growing looks much more rational.
These countries still have the potential to catch up with the development of agricultural technologies, which gives them a chance to reduce the cost of products, rather than making them more expensive, as is the case in developed economies, Denis Ternovsky explained. Therefore, it is necessary to stimulate production in order to expand exports as carefully as possible.
— Now in Russia, wages in agriculture are lower than in most other sectors of the economy, despite the fact that the industry is export-oriented, and the price level is comparable to the world. A significant extensive expansion of our exports while maintaining its structure is possible only with an increase in world prices and a corresponding increase in the incomes of our farmers," he said.
An alternative direction, according to him, may be the development of exports of products with a high degree of processing. We are not talking about the simple transformation of grain into flour or seeds into butter, but about the creation of our own trademarks, the introduction of modern technologies for deep processing and the production of finished goods with added value. If this is not done, there is a risk of a repeat of the already familiar situation, when the expansion of exports of raw materials does not affect the well-being of those who work on the land.
Development paths
The world's population continues to grow, and by 2050 it will approach almost 10 billion people, Petr Shcherbachenko, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, noted in an interview with Izvestia. Against this background, the demand for agricultural products, especially dairy products, vegetables, fruits and grains, will increase rapidly. At the same time, arable land is declining due to erosion, urbanization and environmental degradation, which creates additional pressure on global food production.
— In this situation, Russia has clear advantages. It is one of the three countries with the largest area of cultivated land — by 2022, about 121.6 million hectares were involved. In addition, the country occupies a leading position in the wheat market: in 2023-2024, for the first time in history, Russia provided more than 25% of world exports, sending abroad about 55.3 million tons, he recalled.
Nevertheless, accelerated modernization of the agricultural sector is necessary to realize the potential, the expert noted. Achieving global goals is possible only with active cooperation with other countries in the field of agriculture. The key areas are the preservation and development of preferential loans for producers, the expansion of transport and port infrastructure, the introduction of precision farming technologies, breeding and robotic harvesting, as well as the formation of a new generation of human resources through targeted training, support for specialists and the creation of a comfortable social environment in rural areas.
"If these measures are implemented comprehensively, Russia will be able not only to strengthen its own food supply, but also to significantly increase its contribution to the global food system, providing the growing global population with the necessary products," Peter Shcherbachenko is confident.
Countries with wide territories and rich reserves of fertile lands gain an obvious advantage in matters of national food security, Inna Litvinenko, associate professor of Economics and Management at the Russian State University of Social Technologies, member of the Public Council at the Ministry of Education and Science, confirmed to Izvestia. Russia holds a particularly strong position in this regard.: With proper organization of production, its land potential is able to provide not only its own population, but also a significant part of global demand by 2050.
The main prerequisite for solving the food problem is related to how effectively the land fund is used, and this directly depends on the professional training of people working in the agricultural sector, she noted. The higher the qualifications of specialists and the level of management of farms, the more stable the food supply system is developing. Additional investments in agricultural education and modern infrastructure can significantly enhance this dynamic and accelerate the transition to more efficient agricultural production models.
— In this regard, it is necessary to focus on increasing the training of agricultural sector specialists in Russia, — the expert believes. — Moreover, to increase the number of graduates tenfold. And to create a system of targeted employment both in individual sectors of agriculture and in the regions of Russia with compulsory work within five years after graduation from higher education.
Individual States have sufficient resources and infrastructure to increase their own production, introduce new technologies, develop processing facilities and modernize logistics. However, without taking into account global trends and external demand, the effectiveness of measures may be limited, and the risks associated with resource scarcity, climate change, or fluctuations in global prices remain high.
International agreements could help create joint research programs, seed and fertilizer exchanges, investment initiatives, and agreed product quality standards, which enhance the overall sustainability of the agricultural sector.
Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Agriculture, but no response had been received at the time of publication.
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