Equilibrium market: government to extend quotas for export of mineral fertilizers
The Government has approved the extension and modification of quotas for the export of mineral fertilizers. The new restrictions will be in effect from December 2025 to May 2026. The document establishing these rules was signed by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin. Izvestia investigated how the quota adjustment will affect fertilizer prices within Russia, as well as whether additional support measures are planned for producers of mineral fertilizers in connection with the change in export restrictions.
Reasons for extension
Since 2021, there has been a permanent quota system for the export of fertilizers, designed to guarantee the domestic market sufficient supplies of products at an acceptable cost, the press service of the Ministry of Agriculture told Izvestia. Quotas are reviewed every six months based on forecasts of fertilizer production and consumption in the country.
"The volume of quotas set for the period from December 1, 2025 to May 31, 2026 differs slightly from the volume that was set for the same period last year (19.2 million tons), and therefore the changes will not affect producers," the ministry said.
The adopted measure demonstrates the authorities' desire to support the sustainability of the domestic agricultural sector, while maintaining the competitive position of domestic producers in the global market, Sergei Grishunin, managing director of the NRA rating service, told Izvestia.
— This solution will help to avoid pressure on prices in the domestic market and improve the predictability of farmers' costs in the new agricultural season. In general, this will help to curb food inflation, and it is this component that is one of the main ones in the current inflationary pressure. For the period from January to September 2025, the increase in food prices as a whole amounted to 3%, the expert believes.
Another key task, according to him, remains to ensure stable access of farmers to mineral fertilizers. The introduction of quotas is directly related to the implementation of the country's state food security strategy. This also reflects the fulfillment of the order of the President of Russia given in 2022. The adopted measure is aimed at preventing a possible shortage and keeping prices on the domestic market from rising significantly over the past year.
"For fertilizer producers, the key mechanism remains the ability to compensate for concessions in the domestic market through high—yield exports, despite quotas," Sergey Grishunin recalled. — A prerequisite is coordination with the Federal Antimonopoly Service of Russia of the pricing policy for domestic agricultural producers. Despite the restrictions, the industry, most of whose products are traditionally exported, continues to make a significant contribution to the country's foreign exchange earnings and support global food security.
Market accounting
The government has decided to extend and adjust quotas for the export of mineral fertilizers based on several important reasons, Petr Shcherbachenko, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia. First of all, this is aimed at maintaining the stability of the domestic market: the goal is to provide Russian agricultural producers and feed producers with sufficient supplies of fertilizers to avoid shortages.
In addition, according to him, the measures are being implemented within the framework of the instructions of the president, who recommended, if necessary, extending restrictions on the export of certain types of fertilizers. As a result, quotas were approved for the period from December 1, 2025 to May 31, 2026, the total volume of which almost reaches about 19 million tons. Of these, more than 10.6 million tons are intended for nitrogen fertilizers, and over 8 million tons are for complex fertilizers.
"This measure is aimed at ensuring a sufficient level of fertilizers within the country, which is designed to prevent their shortage and create conditions for price stability," the expert stressed.
Crop monitoring
When Russia is experiencing a shortage of resources that it produces and supplies abroad, the government takes measures to reduce exports in order to meet the needs of the domestic market, Khadzhimurad Belkharoev, an IMEB expert at the RUDN University Faculty of Economics, noted in an interview with Izvestia. This also applies to mineral fertilizers.
The functions related to the regulation of this area were transferred from the Ministry of Industry and Trade to the Ministry of Agriculture, since it is this department that is better oriented towards the needs of farmers. The Ministry of Agriculture knows the exact amounts of fertilizers needed by domestic farmers and will manage the issue taking into account the interests of agricultural producers.
— Winter crops are currently being sown, and mineral fertilizers are needed for this process. Therefore, some fertilizers should be retained for use on the domestic market. The quota adjustment introduced by the government will not have a significant impact on the cost of mineral fertilizers, as they are in demand within the country, the expert said. — The cost of fertilizers will stabilize, there will be no sharp jumps, but there will be a real price. Starting in 2024, the export duty on fertilizers has been reduced from 10% to 7%, which is a measure to support producers.
In addition, special benefits and loans on preferential terms are provided in the regions. The government attaches special importance to this industry, Khadzhimurad Belkharoev believes. Reducing fertilizer exports will allow them to be directed to domestic agriculture, which, in turn, contributes to crop growth and increased food supplies abroad.
Since 2016, Russia has been a leading exporter of grain crops and supplies sunflower oil and other food products to the international market.
— Even if the foreign exchange earnings from fertilizer exports decrease, they will be offset by food exports. Many production facilities in Europe are idle due to high energy prices, accounting for more than 70% of the cost of fertilizers. This makes our fertilizers in demand on the global market," the expert reminded.
According to him, the lack of quotas for fertilizers may leave the domestic agricultural sector without the necessary resources, which will cause a shortage in the country. Control over the export of these materials plays a key role for the security of the State.
At the same time, exports of grain and food products strengthen Russia's position in the international arena. More than 160 countries purchase our products, so it is important to supply agriculture with everything necessary and support its development, Khajimurad Belkharoev emphasized.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
