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- Premonition of threat: the conflict over Iran increases the risks of terrorist attacks in Europe
Premonition of threat: the conflict over Iran increases the risks of terrorist attacks in Europe
The escalation of the conflict over Iran may lead not only to an expansion of hostilities in the Middle East, but also to an increase in terrorist threats in Europe. Due to Washington's calls for allies to help unblock the Strait of Hormuz, European countries are stepping up security measures, fearing attacks from pro-Iranian networks. An additional factor of tension is the activity of the Iranian opposition in the Balkans. About 2.5 thousand of its representatives are in Albania in the Ashraf-3 camp, Russian Ambassador to Tirana Alexei Zaitsev told Izvestia. According to the diplomat, these forces can be considered by Washington as a factor that should be used in the fight against the Iranian authorities.
The risks of terrorist attacks are growing in Europe
The United States and Israel have significantly increased security measures. After the attacks on Iran began on February 28, both countries went on high alert: in the United States, the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security mobilized counterterrorism and intelligence resources, local authorities increased security at synagogues, Israeli facilities and public places, and military bases imposed strict controls. In Israel, the IDF (army), Shin Bet (Security Agency), and police have stepped up security around critical infrastructure, military bases, and public spaces.
But even in European countries, additional measures are being taken due to the risk of terrorist attacks. The main threat is the activities of pro—Iranian structures or their supporters, who are capable of attacking symbolic and diplomatic facilities such as embassies, synagogues, infrastructure or places of mass gathering. Several EU states, including France and Germany, have already increased the security level of potentially vulnerable facilities due to fears of possible attacks.
Pro-Iranian groups include a wide range of organizations and structures capable of operating both in the Middle East and beyond. First of all, this is Hezbollah, whose military wing is recognized as a terrorist in the EU. It has extensive financial, logistical, and intelligence networks. In addition, there are operational cells of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. A significant role is played by pro-Iranian formations in Iraq, including Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba, Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada and the Ansar Allah Faithful Movement. The Houthis, the Ansar Allah movement, are active in Yemen, which acts as an important regional actor capable of influencing the safety of navigation and military operations in the region.
The so-called "lone wolf terrorists" remain another risk. Under the influence of propaganda and the emotional background of the war, individual radicalized individuals may carry out spontaneous attacks in support of Iran or out of a desire to avenge attacks on the country's territory. The spread of polarizing content on social media accelerates the processes of such radicalization, especially among young people in migrant communities. According to Europol estimates, the conflict may lead not only to an increase in terrorist risks, but also to an increase in the number of cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns.
On March 6, four men were arrested in London, accused of spying on the city's Jewish community on behalf of Iranian intelligence. Three of them have dual British and Iranian citizenship, and one holds an Iranian passport.
A group called Ashab Al Yamim has claimed responsibility for a series of attacks on Jewish sites on the continent over the past week. The first incident was an explosive device at a synagogue in Liege, Belgium. Then similar attacks occurred in Greece, the synagogue in Rotterdam was damaged, where there was arson.
Now the main risks may arise for those European countries that decide to provide military support to the United States in the Middle East. Participation in operations against Iran or assistance in ensuring navigation can make such states potential targets for pro-Iranian groups or supporters of Tehran.
Moreover, the United States is trying to expand the international coalition. US President Donald Trump said earlier that NATO could face a "very bad future" if the allies did not help open the Strait of Hormuz, blocked by Iran.
Ivan Loshkarev, Associate Professor of the MGIMO Department of Political Theory, believes that the formation of a united coalition is unlikely.: Rather, we will be talking about several parallel missions that will be poorly coordinated with each other, he is sure. In his opinion, the European Union may limit itself to symbolic participation and send several ships.
Threat from the Iranian opposition
At the same time, forces opposing the Iranian leadership may also pose a threat to the European continent. According to Russian Ambassador to Albania Alexei Zaitsev, about 2.5 thousand representatives of the Iranian opposition are stationed in the Balkan country.
— On the initiative of the United States, members of the Organization of the Mujahideen of the Iranian People (OMIN), which is an opposition force against the current leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI), have been stationed in Albania since 2013. OMIN is considered by the Americans as a factor that, under certain conditions, can be involved in the fight against the current Iranian authorities. About 2.5 thousand opposition representatives are in the Ashraf-3 closed stationary camp near Tirana," the diplomat told Izvestia.
The Russian ambassador noted that the organization's leader, Maryam Rajavi, and representatives of the camp, in response to threats from Tehran in 2025-2026, declared the OMIN members' readiness to return to their homeland to assist in overthrowing the current authorities.
Albania has long been at the center of the confrontation between the West and Iran in the Balkans, said Elena Ponomareva, professor at MGIMO, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, in an interview with Izvestia. The situation was particularly acute in 2022, when Albania became the target of a large—scale cyberattack on the government's digital infrastructure.
The investigation involved the American companies Mandiant and Microsoft, which concluded that Iranian government agencies were involved. These events became the formal reason for the severance of diplomatic relations with Iran. According to the expert, in response, Tehran accused "third countries" of provocation, which fits into the tradition of British operations to fabricate evidence.
— In the current crisis, the use of the Mujahideen based in Albania, who are considered tough opponents of the Ayatollah regime, is quite possible. And rather, probably even. In turn, if this happens, it will create a risk of drawing the countries of the Balkan region into the conflict, where Iran's support in the Muslim communities of BiH and North Macedonia is quite strong (Sarajevo has the largest diplomatic representation of Iran in Europe), — said Elena Ponomareva.
The expert warns that Tehran's retaliatory measures can be diverse — from cyber attacks on infrastructure to direct attacks on American and NATO facilities. According to her, the use of the Camp Bondsteel base in partially recognized Kosovo for the rapid transfer of command personnel and specialized groups is particularly dangerous.
In addition, in 2024, after modernization, the Kucova air base in Albania, which is included in the alliance's airfield network, was put into operation. According to Alexey Zaitsev, it can be used to base tactical aircraft, helicopters and drones.
"Currently, the facility serves as a backup airfield. There are no facts of using the base in the interests of the US and Israeli military operation against Iran," he stressed.
The conflict has already affected the European continent — in particular, facilities in Cyprus and Turkey have been attacked. Despite the limited range of drones, they can be launched from the territory of neighboring countries, which significantly expands the potential area of destruction. Such capabilities also make European countries vulnerable to unexpected attacks.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
