Make fun of the Kurds: What role can ethnic groups play in weakening Iran?

As the war with Iran escalates, the United States is sending reinforcements to the Middle East. Washington hints that the possibility of a ground invasion of the Islamic Republic cannot be ruled out. The American authorities are betting on the Kurds in this. But there are other ethnic groups in the country that are interested in dividing the state. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

Ground operation

US President Donald Trump and Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth have allowed the possibility of sending American ground troops to Iran. According to the American leader, he is ready to take such a step only "if necessary." The Defense Minister, in turn, assured that the current war with Tehran would not turn into another multi-year conflict in the Middle East for the United States.

Iraqi Kurdistan, which is gradually becoming a significant player in the Middle East, can play an important role in a ground attack. In particular, there is a key American military facility there — the Erbil airbase.

The Kurdish factions have a long history of confrontation with Tehran. And now, according to Axios, the Iraqi Kurds, closely linked to Iran's Kurdish minority, have deployed an army of thousands along the border with the Islamic Republic.

The American authorities are betting on the Kurds — the day after the start of the war in Iran, Trump spoke with the leaders of the people in Iraq, Masoud Barzani and Bafel Talabani. They discussed the future strategy of military operations.

The publication, citing sources, notes that the negotiations with the participation of the American leadership were the result of long-term behind-the-scenes lobbying work by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. For a long time, the Israeli authorities have been establishing ties with the Kurds in Iran, Syria and Iraq.

The Kurdish fighters have a wealth of combat experience, which they have accumulated over the years of fighting in Iraq and Syria against the militants of the Islamic State (IS; the organization is recognized as a terrorist organization and banned in the Russian Federation), so we cannot rule out a scenario in which they will try to break into Iran with the support of Israel and the United States and occupy some areas.

Ethnic diversity

The Trump administration is counting on the help of other armed groups advocating the division of the country. According to Washington's idea, they should play an important role in weakening the security forces and the Iranian army. And this, in turn, as the American authorities expect, should clear the way for the opposition to take to the streets.

Iran is a multinational state, and this circumstance can be used by external forces to destabilize the socio-political system of the state, Danila Krylov, a researcher at the Department of the Middle and Post-Soviet East of the INION RAS, confirmed in an interview with Izvestia.

— But still there are not very many options. The majority of the ethnic composition of the state is made up of Persians, mainly Shiites. There are also Azerbaijanis," the political scientist clarified.

The expert stressed that many of the high—ranking officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are Iranian Azerbaijanis by nationality.

In turn, Ivan Glukhov, a researcher at the Center for the Study of the Global South at the INION RAS, clarified in a conversation with Izvestia that expert assessments of the Azerbaijani minority in Iran are very different. This ethnic group can make up from 15 to 40% of the country's population. Mostly Iranian Azerbaijanis live in four provinces: West and East Azerbaijan, Zanjan and Ardabil. Many religious figures come from them.

— They are ethnic Azerbaijanis. It is believed that they are already strongly embedded in the power structures in Iran itself, and therefore, most likely, there will be no speeches on their part," the source said.

Danila Krylov added that Kurds, who are a key destabilizing factor, make up 10% of the country's population.

"Kurds in the Middle East create very serious internal socio—economic and socio-political problems for states,— he said.

There are also small nations in the country: Lurians, Arabs, Talysh, Turkmens, Gilyans, Turkic tribes, Armenians, Assyrians and Baluchis, the orientalist listed. At the same time, according to the analyst, most of the Baloch representatives live in Pakistan.

— So any attempts to create their own state in these regions are still more of a threat to Pakistan than to Iran. The main destabilizing factor is the Kurds, I wouldn't really consider the rest," the expert explained.

In any case, the ethnic factor remains particularly important in the Middle East in general and in Iran in particular, the political scientist stressed, comparing it to "a constantly smoldering bomb that can be detonated." And in the West, they like to resort to this method without thinking about the consequences, since they are primarily guided by economic interests.

"And everything else for them is collateral damage," the expert said.

At the same time, in recent days, Shiite leaders from Iran and Iraq have been calling for jihad — a holy war against Americans and Zionists — all those who support Israel, he recalled.

— In principle, the world has not particularly encountered such a concept as Shiite terrorism. Almost all terrorism in the world was Sunni, we do not know in general what Shiite terrorism is, and how violent and harsh it can be, especially in the context of modern geopolitical conflicts, the expert warned.

The oppressed people

The Iranian united nation exists only on paper, said Ivan Glukhov, a researcher at the Center for the Study of the Global South at INION RAS. He considers Azerbaijanis, Kurds, Balochis and Arabs to be the peoples of the Islamic Republic seeking to achieve autonomy.

"They have a distinct identity and are divided, that is, they retain the desire to unite with their ethnic groups on the other side of the border," the expert explained.

The issue of creating an independent Kurdish state remains unresolved, he recalled. Against this background, the Iranian Kurds feel aggrieved.

— The Arab population lives quite densely in the south of the country. During the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-1982, there were quite fierce battles there, and the conflict broke out over this province in many ways. There were movements for granting additional rights," the specialist added.

In this regard, the analyst does not rule out the possibility of centrifugal forces in Iran, since, according to him, some forces from outside often try to play this card as soon as the central government weakens.

— That's what's happening now. Recently, there was a comment about the fact that the Azerbaijani people in these provinces want to reunite with another part that is located in Azerbaijan, Glukhov explained.

The political scientist considered this statement to be fabricated, but did not rule out that "pressure may continue to be applied to this fault line."