"The war against Iran will be the most destructive"
Israel may possess nuclear weapons and use them as a "last resort" in a war with Iran. This was stated to Izvestia by former CIA analyst Ray McGovern. According to him, Israel actually dragged the United States into a conflict with the Islamic Republic, despite the fact that Tehran posed no immediate threat to any of them. The expert is confident that the United States is not ready for a prolonged armed confrontation with Iran, and may even be inferior to it in the number of ballistic missiles. In addition, there is growing dissatisfaction with the military campaign in American society. All this may force Donald Trump to think about ending the conflict and finding a mediator to reach peace agreements. In Ray McGovern's exclusive interview with Izvestia, he discussed the prospects of expanding the conflict at the expense of NATO and the likelihood of involving Russia as a mediator.
"There was no threat to the United States from Iran"
— Western media reports that Israeli intelligence agencies have calculated the location of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, including with the help of artificial intelligence technologies. Does this indicate that it is no longer possible to do without AI, even in intelligence and, in principle, in modern wars?
— We know that the Mossad used artificial intelligence to identify targets in the Gaza Strip. We know that in some cases there is no human factor in the system. So yes, this can be expected in future wars. This is, of course, a tragedy. But I don't think it was necessary in this case, because Khamenei's location was well known to almost everyone.
Two days before his death, he said: "I accept the fact that I can become a martyr." And we have a martyr who didn't want to be one, but turned out to be willing to make this sacrifice so that his people would see that it was worth the sacrifice.
Ray McGovern is a CIA veteran with 27 years of experience. In the 1960s, he began as an analyst, in the 1970s he headed the Soviet branch, and from 1981 to 1985 he personally presented daily intelligence reports to the president and top leadership of the United States.
After retiring, he became a public activist: in 2003, he became one of the founders of the organization "Veterans and Intelligence Professionals for Sanity" (VIPS) to expose the manipulation of intelligence before the Iraq war. In 2006, he publicly returned the medal "For Services to Intelligence" in protest against the use of torture by American intelligence agencies.
And it brought the Iranian population together in a way that nothing else could have done. The Supreme Leader was killed by Americans who knew exactly where he was. This did not require artificial intelligence and sophisticated information collection methods. He told me where he was going to be, and he was killed right away in the first wave anyway.
— Quite a lot of Americans are already protesting against the war with Iran. Demonstrations were held in Washington, New York, Los Angeles. Do I understand correctly that the current operation is less popular than the one that the United States conducted at the beginning of the year, when they captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro?
— The protests will continue and intensify. The US High Command was unable to explain what kind of immediate threat prompted us to attack Iran. In fact, in my opinion, there was no immediate threat. According to Secretary Rubio, the Israelis told us that Iran was going to attack them. And we joined them because we were afraid that the Iranians would respond in kind. So yes, Israel forced us to do it.
Demonstrators march during a protest in Washington on the day when the United States and Israel attacked Iran.
— The head of the State Department, Marco Rubio, really explained the beginning of the US strikes on Iran as self-defense. How reliable do you think the information is that Iran could have been the first to attack Israel?
— I think this issue can be classified as irrelevant due to new circumstances. There was a small chance of that. I estimated that Iran would be the first to attack Israel at about 10%. But now we know that the opposite happened. Israel and the United States launched a coordinated attack on Iran on the morning of February 28, killing 160 schoolgirls (according to the Iranian authorities, the Shajare Tayeb elementary school in southern Iran was attacked. — Ed.), killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and many other people.
But for what? Is Iran really going to say, "Okay, that's enough, we're giving up"? No, there is no such possibility. And I'm afraid that this war against Iran will turn out to be the most destructive of all the senseless wars that the American leadership has dragged us into since Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and so on. It's a terrible waste of lives and money. And hopefully one day we will have a leadership that understands this and strives for peace.
"The Iranians had a lot of time to prepare"
— On March 1, Donald Trump announced that the operation against Iran would last no more than four weeks. But according to Politico, the country's authorities do not rule out that the military campaign will end no earlier than September. In your opinion, what time frame is realistic and does the United States have enough military resources for a long-term confrontation?
— I rely heavily on my fellow military experts. According to their estimates, in three to four weeks, the United States will run out of funds for warfare (whether offensive or anti-missile). And if that happens, the Iranians can just lay low because they have a lot of oil.
— Does it mean that the United States will run out of missiles faster than Iran?
— The Iranians had a lot of time to prepare for what was bound to happen. As for the United States, they thought they would throw all their missiles at Ukraine. Now they're bringing them back to the Middle East, but there aren't enough of them. And if the military experts are right, and I believe them, Iran will demonstrate resilience due to the fact that it has thousands of missiles, and many of them are embedded so deep in the ground that they are invulnerable to attacks by Israeli or American aircraft. There will be some losses. But as I see it, the balance in terms of the number of missiles and other munitions needed in the long run is in Iran's favor.
— Trump did not rule out a ground military operation. How do you assess its possible success?
— There are many other ways besides this. We can train Kurds, Azerbaijanis (large ethnic groups living in Iran. — Ed.), and we can send all these "magic" special forces and the like there. But if anyone wanted to imagine the height of military stupidity, it would be sending ground troops to Iran.
"Support for Israel in our country has plummeted"
— What are the chances that the White House will decide to use nuclear weapons?
— This is the most important question. I am concerned about the use of nuclear weapons, but not American ones. The danger lies in the technologies stolen from the United States over the past few decades, which have now allowed Israel to possess several nuclear warheads (Israel has not officially declared that it possesses nuclear weapons. — Ed.). And if, as I expect, Israel is, conditionally, destroyed by Iranian missiles, then as a last resort, the Israeli leader will not shy away from using nuclear weapons. It worries me a lot.
Netanyahu's predecessors, for example, Golda Meir (Prime Minister of Israel in 1969-1974 — Ed.) threatened to use nuclear weapons. And what happened in 1973 (the Yom Kippur War. — Ed.), and other similar cases, I think it is this threat that needs to be taken seriously, because it could mean the end for all of us.
— You are suggesting that Israel may use nuclear weapons. But will the United States act similarly?
— It is unlikely that the United States will use nuclear weapons. We have a "rogue regime" that is actually exempt from all norms of international law — I'm talking about Israel. And this whole story concerns Israel. And even some of our prominent senators are now saying that there was no immediate threat to the United States.
Secretary Rubio is now talking about an "imminent threat" to Israel. Does this mean that American soldiers have to die for Israel? This is being talked about out loud, and support for Israel in our country has plummeted. Therefore, in my opinion, this may be what we call Netanyahu's "last triumph" — his last chance to get what he wants from President Trump, who seems ready to do whatever Netanyahu wants.
And I think that this may inevitably lead to the Israelis using a nuclear bomb. Israel will not be stopped by any protests from the United States or anyone else. They do what they want, and they usually expect the United States to follow suit.
"There is no better country to mediate in this conflict than Russia"
— In a recent interview, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte evaded the question of whether the alliance would use Article 5 of the charter (on collective defense) against the background of the US military conflict with Iran. Are there any signs that NATO will use it?
— I don't think there can be any chances. In fact, I believe that NATO is, in fact, already dead. Using this article in connection with the war in Iran would be too much. I think this possibility can be ruled out from the very beginning.
In my opinion, over the next one or two weeks, when the Americans start running out of weapons and missiles, Trump will look for a way out of the situation. He will need someone to act as an intermediary. And I believe that there is no better country to mediate in this conflict than Russia. She has ties to the United States. There are several million Russians living in Israel. And Russia has ties with Iran. There are small glimmers of hope.
Putin spoke on the phone with some countries of the Persian Gulf. I have read suggestions indicating that Russia is ready to do everything possible to stop the war and help negotiate a reasonable settlement. This is just my guess, but you can trust my opinion — I've been watching the Kremlin and its leaders for six decades since I studied Russian at university.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
