The media suggested the first decline in the US population in 108 years

The immigration policy of the current American administration may lead to the first reduction in the US population in 108 years this year. This was reported by RBC on February 8.

It is noted that after returning to the presidency in January 2025, Donald Trump began to tighten immigration policy. He declared a state of emergency on the border with Mexico, suspended the refugee admission program and signed a decree ending the automatic granting of birthright citizenship.

According to the newspaper, 622,000 immigrants have been deported from the country since the beginning of last year. Although some experts consider this estimate to be overstated, other data also indicate a sharp outflow of foreigners: the number of arrests made by the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) on the streets increased 11-fold in 2025.

Experts believe that the outflow of migrants will most likely not prevent the country's population from growing. However, researchers expect that by the end of the year, the number of US residents may decrease by 400 thousand people. Demographers claim that such a decline has not been observed since the beginning of population censuses in the 18th century. The only exception is the "Spanish flu" pandemic in 1918.

Experts from the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and the Brookings Institution believe that last year the outflow of migrants from the United States could range from 10 to 295 thousand people. However, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that for the calendar year 2025 it could reach 410 thousand people.

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"The CBO estimate includes fewer deportations than ours, and the budget office suggests that voluntary migration is declining in response to increased enforcement measures, while we expect it to increase," the researchers said.

It is specified that for the current year, experts give a forecast from an increase in the number of foreigners of 185 thousand people to its reduction by 925 thousand. This assessment was published before the announcement of the suspension of the issuance of immigration visas to citizens of 75 countries.

Researchers say that the biggest contribution to the slowdown in net migration is a reduction in the number of arrivals, not deportations. It is emphasized that if the experts' forecast for the lower limit is implemented and there is no sharp increase in the birth rate, the total population of the United States will decrease by more than 400 thousand people. At the same time, it is clarified that even with an average value in the waiting range, the country will be on the verge of population decline.

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In an interview with NBC Nightly News anchor Tom Llamas on NBC News on February 4, Trump revealed plans to expand migration controls to five more cities. He stressed that he wants to get permission from the regions. It was clarified that this was how the US president made it clear that he did not want to extend the program to places where migration agents would encounter resistance from local activists.

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