Boundaries of the unauthorized: Trump's immigration policy carries economic risks
The number of illegal crossings across the southern border of the United States has decreased by 35% in just three days of Donald Trump's immigration policy. The declaration of a state of emergency at the border, sending 1.5 thousand military personnel there and partial abolition of citizenship by right of soil are the first measures of the new leader to combat illegal immigrants. At the same time, according to the American expert community, now the policy is aimed mainly at migrants with criminal records, and when it comes to those who worked illegally in the States, the negative economic effect is guaranteed. Inflation will also be affected by Washington's deteriorating relations with Mexico City, which Trump is threatening to increase duties to 25% on February 1. And a wave of deportations to the Latin American state could lead to a migration crisis already on the other side of the border.
Trump has given the go-ahead for his immigration policy
Donald Trump's second term as president began with a series of strong measures to combat illegal migration. On his first day in office, he signed six presidential decrees against illegal immigrants (among them a partial ban on citizenship by right of soil, a ban on entry for asylum seekers and the declaration of a state of emergency at the border), and on the third day of the Republican's stay in the Oval Office, 1.5 thousand military personnel moved to the border with Mexico, and 4.5 thousand National Guard soldiers were also deployed there. At the same time, illegal border crossings fell by 35% in just three days of Trump's tenure.
In total, according to statements of the American press, Trump is preparing to send to the southern border about 10 thousand soldiers, the authorities plan to do this in several stages. In addition to military personnel, helicopters with appropriate crews and intelligence analysts will move to the site. The Pentagon will also provide airplanes for deportation of 5 thousand illegal migrants from California and Texas and will participate in the construction of barriers on the border with Mexico.
Curbing mass migration to the U.S. will be one of the main goals of Washington's foreign policy, Trump-appointed Secretary of State with Cuban roots Marco Rubio said on Jan. 22. According to his statements, the State Department will no longer "take any measures that condone mass migration." He also emphasized that U.S. diplomatic relations with other countries primarily in the Western Hemisphere will be based primarily on border security.
At the same time, the Trump administration has ordered investigations and possibly criminal charges against those officials in local governments who would refuse to implement the president's migration policy plans. Already on the day of the inauguration, several heads of the Justice Department agency that oversees the country's immigration courts were suspended.
At the same time, deportations appear to have already begun. According to Thomas Hommann (he is in charge of immigration oversight, maritime and aviation security in the Trump administration), detention operations are taking place in different parts of the country, aimed mainly against people with criminal records and those who pose a threat to the security of the States.
Migrants in the U.S. can be roughly divided into several groups, University of Georgia professor Charles C. Bullock III: people with criminal records (it is relatively small), migrants without legal status but who have been in the country for a long time (they work and pay taxes) - this group is probably the largest - and those who were born in the United States and have no connection to their roots.
American citizens widely support deportation measures for the first group, the expert notes. But getting rid of working illegals is not so popular. The fact is that they occupy those positions, which the native Americans are unlikely to go to - construction, growing fruits and vegetables, rebuilding cities affected by natural disasters. In this case, deportations in particular will drive up food and housing prices.
How long the deportation process might take is difficult to estimate, since what Republicans consider success will also matter. There is reason to believe, however, that if Trump goes beyond just deporting criminals, he will not have enough of a presidential term to realize his project.
- Trump will not be able to run again, but if his deportations drive inflation upward, the Republican Party will pay a heavy price - just as Kamala Harris paid for the last round of inflation triggered by the Democrats," says an American expert.
Trump's migration policies are destabilizing Mexico
The total number of migrants without legal status or with temporary protection from deportation in the U.S., according to some estimates, is about 14 million. If Donald Trump's plans succeed, most of them will end up in Mexico at various points in time. Although its president, Claudia Sheinbaum, had previously said the country was not ready to accept illegals from other states, in early January she did not rule out cooperating with the US on the issue.
Preparing to receive foreigners expelled by the United States, Mexican authorities have begun erecting a tent city in the border town of Ciudad Juarez. The temporary shelter is designed for several thousand people and will be ready in the coming days. The government plan will also include the preparation of temporary shelters and reception centers in nine cities in northern Mexico.
Deported Mexican citizens will be provided with food, medical and legal assistance. The state will also prepare a fleet of buses to take people from the centers to their hometowns. In addition, Mexicans will receive a check from the government for the equivalent of $100 for the first time.
As for the foreigners, Sheinbaum assured that each of them will be provided with the necessary humanitarian aid and will also be supported in repatriation. According to the Mexican leader, Mexico City had these kinds of agreements with Latin American nations even before Trump came to power.
Despite the already introduced measures, experts assure that Mexico may face a serious migration crisis, because in addition to those illegals who will arrive from the U.S. side, there are several other vulnerable categories - those who have not yet managed to cross the border and are in limbo on the Mexican side, as well as those who still continue to arrive in Mexico from Guatemala.
On Jan. 20, the day of Donald Trump's inauguration, another caravan of several thousand migrants from Venezuela, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Cuba and Haiti advanced from Mexico's southern border toward the United States. Many of them had asylum records at the U.S. border, all of which have been canceled. Yet for those in the foot caravan, returning is often not an option, because the journey they were already able to make to the Mexican border was difficult and dangerous. And there is simply no energy (many go with minor children), resources, or finances for the return trip.
According to some estimates, about 50,000 illegals are now concentrated in southern Mexico. There is no data on how many people are now on the border with the United States.
In general, Trump's recent statements and actions regarding Mexico threaten to worsen relations between the countries. Earlier, Trump has already promised to impose 25 percent duties on imports of goods from Mexico and Canada from February 1, and also threatened to rename the Gulf of Mexico into the American Gulf. Claudia Sheinbaum said that her country and the rest of the world will continue to call the Gulf of Mexico by its name.
Deteriorating relations between the countries will inevitably have economic consequences, given that Mexico is one of the United States' main trading partners. In the first six months of 2024, it sent $144 billion worth of goods to the States and purchased $146 billion worth of U.S. products. Thus, 83.1% of Mexican exports are sharpened for the U.S., and U.S. goods account for 40.2% of Mexican imports.
